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***GWarner27's 4/17 MLB Picks (10-10 50% YTD)***

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Posted: #1
-2.096 units

MLs: 5-4 +1.336
Over: 3-2 +1.414
Under: 2-4 -4.846

Carried over from the late part of last season, as i run my calendar through the academic year, I was 10-8 (55.6%) +2.968 units.

My units are 2x the units I use in CBB/NBA, and they're = to the units I use in CF. I'm hoping to stay consistent on flat betting, and i'm very interested in sticking to 1 play per day.

This Week: 3-3 +0.732

tomorrow's thoughts:
NYY -180 (9.5): -210 (9)
PIT -125 (8): +108 (8.5)
PHI -145 (9.5): -159 (8.5)
BOS -120 (9): -146 (9.5)
NYM -135 (10): -128 (9.5)
TEX +110 (9.5): +103 (10.5)
HOU -150 (9): -145 (8)
MIN -120 (9.5): -115 (9)
LAD -160 (9.5): -149 (8.5)
SEA -135 (8): -120 (7.5)
SF +120 (7.5): +132 (7.5)

avoiding:
StL-CHC
OAK-TOR

...with that said

updated leans:
CLE ML
CLE/NYY o9
PIT ML
ATL/PIT u8.5
SD ML
SD/PHI o8.5
BAL ML
BAL/BOS u9.5
NYM ML
MIL/NYM o9.5
KC ML
KC/TEX u10.5
HOU ML
CIN/HOU o8
MIN ML
LAA/MIN o9
LAD ML
COL/LAD o8.5
SEA ML
DET/SEA o7.5
SF ML

...need to rebound from yesterday so please leave some thoughts
 
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Posted: #2
...thinking about hitting the CHC under because of the ridiculous prices i'm seeing

updated leans:
PIT ML
ATL/PIT u8.5
SD ML
SD/PHI o8.5
BAL ML
BAL/BOS u9.5
NYM ML
MIL/NYM o9.5
KC ML
KC/TEX u10.5
HOU ML
CIN/HOU o8
MIN ML
LAA/MIN o9
LAD ML
COL/LAD o8.5
SEA ML
DET/SEA o7.5
SF ML
 
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Posted: #3
...let's get it

adding:
St. Louis-Chicago (NL) UNDER 8.5 (+176): 2 units (Matchbook)
If i see a juice like this on the opening number in the future, I just am going to HAVE to take it. The wind is blowing out and Holbrook is an OVER guy, but Carlos Zambrano can be very good at times. Getting almost 2/1 on this wager makes it worth it, especially when Zambrano has a 3.25 ERA against the Cards and pitched about a run better at home last year than he did on the road. The Cards, meanwhile, have a new kid on the block who people really haven't seen yet this year. I expect them to be greedy at the plate and could give him some easy innings early in the game. I have Holbrook at 1-1 o/u this year, and the under was CLE-KC with the total at 8, while his over 9 in his first appearance only went over by a run.

good luck
 
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Posted: #4
like the sox under, guthrie is good, penny looked good in his first start and im not convinced the sox bats have come around, they lit up an a's gascan with 2 outs and nobody on in the 8th, other then that the kid for the a's  had shut them down last game,g l bud
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

...let's get it

adding:
St. Louis-Chicago (NL) UNDER 8.5 (+176): 2 units (Matchbook)
If i see a juice like this on the opening number in the future, I just am going to HAVE to take it. The wind is blowing out and Holbrook is an OVER guy, but Carlos Zambrano can be very good at times. Getting almost 2/1 on this wager makes it worth it, especially when Zambrano has a 3.25 ERA against the Cards and pitched about a run better at home last year than he did on the road. The Cards, meanwhile, have a new kid on the block who people really haven't seen yet this year. I expect them to be greedy at the plate and could give him some easy innings early in the game. I have Holbrook at 1-1 o/u this year, and the under was CLE-KC with the total at 8, while his over 9 in his first appearance only went over by a run.

good luck

i was able to just get it at 10 so i played it, that would be a sweet payout,  i think its a 7 or 8 run game or a 20 run game

 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by badlands:

i was able to just get it at 10 so i played it, that would be a sweet payout,  i think its a 7 or 8 run game or a 20 run game



exactly. I'm not going to look at the box score 'til it finishes so as to avoid the pain that came with the at the hands of the Yankees 'pen yesterday.


...i agree that the Sox aren't a good team yet, but those bats are unreal at home compared to the road and I have just started to realize why they shade totals so high in Fenway. Not many people know how to play the wall as well
 
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Posted: #7
I'm on the over in the Cubs/Cards, but it's really hard to argue the value you got on that under especially if Zambrano has a strong game. BOL GW
 
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Posted: #8
0-1 so far...

adding:
Atlanta-Pittsburgh UNDER 4 (1H, -101): 2.036 units (Matchbook)
Bill Hohn is the home plate umpire and i love this game's under. Hohn was 10-16 (61.5%) o/u last year, and is 1-1 o/u so far this season. I absolutely LOVE Maholm at home, plus the Braves are without Chipper Jones and Yuniel Escobar tonight. On the other side of the diamond, we got SP Jair Jurrjens who can deal as well. Pittsburgh SS Jack Wilson is NOT in the starting lineup tonight, and i think that helps Jurrjens as Wilson scares me much more than his replacement, Ramon Vazquez. Went with the 1H under to get the -101 juice, and also to avoid the Braves 'pen as they almost gave my under away on Tuesday night against the Fish.

...looking for more, but i'm not pressing at this point to get another play in there.

current card:
St. Louis-Chicago (NL) UNDER 8.5 (+176): 2 units
Atlanta-Pittsburgh UNDER 4 (1H, -101): 2.036 units

good luck
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

0-1 so far...

adding:
Atlanta-Pittsburgh UNDER 4 (1H, -101): 2.036 units (Matchbook)
Bill Hohn is the home plate umpire and i love this game's under. Hohn was 10-16 (61.5%) o/u last year, and is 1-1 o/u so far this season. I absolutely LOVE Maholm at home, plus the Braves are without Chipper Jones and Yuniel Escobar tonight. On the other side of the diamond, we got SP Jair Jurrjens who can deal as well. Pittsburgh SS Jack Wilson is NOT in the starting lineup tonight, and i think that helps Jurrjens as Wilson scares me much more than his replacement, Ramon Vazquez. Went with the 1H under to get the -101 juice, and also to avoid the Braves 'pen as they almost gave my under away on Tuesday night against the Fish.

...looking for more, but i'm not pressing at this point to get another play in there.

current card:
St. Louis-Chicago (NL) UNDER 8.5 (+176): 2 units
Atlanta-Pittsburgh UNDER 4 (1H, -101): 2.036 units

good luck




I just added this pick myself and I took the 1st-half instead of the full game for the exact same reason...the Atlanta bullpen.
 
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Posted: #10
I also absolutely love Maholm at home. I don't think he could have pitched much better in his two starts. Grabbed him at +100 last night. Anything score that results in the Pirates winning is fine by me
 
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Posted: #11
...let's get it

adding:
Minnesota (-110) vs. Los Angeles (AL): 1.054 units (Matchbook)
MIN SP Nick Blackburn had a 2.95 ERA at home last year and really impressed me in a few starts, enough to grab him on my fantasy team. While he was not consistent enough on the road for me, I'm happy to back him at home with a HP Umpire in Brian Knight whose home teams were 20-14 (58.8%) last year. Now that's a relatively mediocre number for home teams, but I couldn't resist with Blackburn's great home splits and because the Halos played late last night against the Mariners and probably got into town today with not much sleep. Travel is a tough thing to get around in sports, and I think a great home team like the Twins will get them today.

current card:
St. Louis-Chicago (NL) UNDER 8.5 (+176): 2 units
Atlanta-Pittsburgh UNDER 4 (1H, -101): 2.036 units
Minnesota (-110) vs. Los Angeles (AL): 1.054 units

good luck
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by blstuart:

I also absolutely love Maholm at home. I don't think he could have pitched much better in his two starts. Grabbed him at +100 last night. Anything score that results in the Pirates winning is fine by me


bl,

hopefully they blow 'em out of the water after the 5th inning
 
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Posted: #13
Good luck, tonight. You really show some diligence doing the research you do, day in, day out.
 
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Posted: #14
bol 
 
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Posted: #15
Atlanta had em loaded in the top of the second with nobody out and Maholm got out of it
 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by blstuart:

Atlanta had em loaded in the top of the second with nobody out and Maholm got out of it


i love him. I do NOT love the big innings that have just been following me lately, though.

dovjak

thanks lanny, really appreciate it
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