Hedging Nats future

Hello all, I have a 500/11500 Nats World Series futures bet. As much as I want them,to win (currently living out that way) Houston is much more likely to win. The bet was just a leap when odds were so high early on season, so the 500 is a sunk cost, the potential payout is looking real though, so mow I may want to hedge just to get something if Houston wins.

The series -225, yikes. I dont want to be putting out that kind of cash and them rooting against myself. I was looking at prop bets like Houston wins in 4,5,6 and seven and sprinkling a little on them. Those are like +735, +435 down to + 235.

To the more experienced gamblers, what am I missing here? If I sprinkle a little on each of these (maybe even skipping the sweep, if that happens I will be sad no matter what lol), and Houston wins, I will get at least some,of what I potentially get from a Nats win. But if I spread this over too many bets I will lose regardless/ just get back what I put in.

I suppose I could just be a homer/fan and let it ride and be Nats or Nothing. What would you guys do? It would require more to just take the Houston series at -225, to get a smaller payout right? 900 to get 400, whereas if I split 900 between +435/315/390 or even the dreaded sweep at +735. If I went 100 on sweep, 200 on each of the other options the only option I lose outright on is the 4-2 which pays 315 as I get back 630 on my 700. How would you guys split up the money IF you even would. 

Am I over thinking this? Thanks for any insight.

Manowarfan1

Not over thinking it at all man. Sprinkle on Astros winning in 4,5.6 or whatever. I’d sprinkle at least 1.5 k all together. You’ll still pull 10k if nats win. Just my opinion 

Thanks for the insight guys. I knew that sprinkling would result in more losses than wins, but potentially less layout,of money. 

The recovery of the initial 500 is good, because it doesnt require too much outlay at -225, It does remove anybelement of danger and I could still hope the Nats pull it out.

Thanks again

Manowarfan1

Well, I didn't get any hedge bets placed thanks to security restrictions at work, and woke up to find the Nats won game 1 and I don't see any futures/series bets at 5 dimes now (maybe they will reappear during the day). Looks,like I am,just a fan with a severe rooting interest. Hell if they get game 2, I may end up bidding against some of the politicos and rich guys for a ticket to a game in DC :)

Go Nats,

Manowarfan1

Well dang it, not onlyvare they making my futures bet look possible, but I got to cash in a bit on last night (not posted on covers, so it doesn't count except in my bankroll, but c'mon Strasburg at +166, I don't  care who they're playing against, it is worth a couple units anyway).

Now, do I risk jinxing the team and showing up in person? I was in Denver for the Rockies trip to the Series. Would have done better by everyone to just stay in the bars in Lodi and soak up the atmosphere.

Maybe if they win game 3, though then the tix for game 4 will be,out of,control. Maybe buy game 5, and hope they refund if no game 5 :)

Manowarfan1

GLManowarfan stay the course mah man