I use several advanced stats to help me cap.
Like Beetlebum, I also use SIERA to help me evaluate starting pitchers. IMO it is the most accurate advanced stat on them, however, you still have to use some subjective opinion because some pitchers tend to over/underperform what it predicts.
For hitters I have been looking at team wOBA, and also splits vs. L and R and how well the teams have been performing in recent games.
I've also been taking the bullpen into account. This is why yesterday I took Cle 1st 5 instead of full game, because KC has a better bullpen and better hitters in general.
Then I give a small homefield advantage and take the weather into account. And finally I think "what do I know that isn't obvious?" After all this I make a rough estimation, and take a team where I see value.
For example with the Twins today, Hughes is the better pitcher despite the worse ERA, Detroit bats have been cold recently, and Detroit's bullpen is awful so I believe the Twins have value.
I have to point out that this is my first season doing this, while it's been going well so far, you can't really say that a method works until you have a much larger sample size and history of success.
Established in 1995,
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