How to become a better baseball handicapper?

Question

I guess the real question is how to become a handicapper in the first place haha.

People here often mention their numbers give X team Y% chance of winning but the line offered by the book reflects a different % and therefore place a wager.

My question is what are the best stats to use for inputs and what kind of functions are handicappers using to get their outputs? I am looking to get a more data based approach as opposed to emotion, who's hot, and simple trends approach to betting.

Thank you for any and all help.

dodgerblue88 · Answer

I guess the real question is how to become a handicapper in the first place haha.

People here often mention their numbers give X team Y% chance of winning but the line offered by the book reflects a different % and therefore place a wager.

My question is what are the best stats to use for inputs and what kind of functions are handicappers using to get their outputs? I am looking to get a more data based approach as opposed to emotion, who's hot, and simple trends approach to betting.

Thank you for any and all help.

destinbeacher · Answer

You need my sports betting algorithms and model. But it&#x27;s not for sale. Sorry.

milky24 · Answer

Baseball? All you need is a coin. Take your right and, place the coin on your thumb, then flip it as hard as you can. Let it hit the floor like J-LO.... Important: don&#x27;t forget to call it when the coin in the air. If you&#x27;d rather catch the coin with your hand (after flipping it and calling it, of course, don&#x27;t be silly) instead of J-LOing on the floor - buy the other side of the bet of what the coin shows. 100% winning. GL man

destinbeacher · Answer

Or this.

everzz · Answer

Good money managment, having the ability to break a team down based on factors which you find important and then estimating the percentages. I usually do all of this before looking at any lines to avoid bias. Afterwards I can every now and then find gems that are very undervalued.

I try to place bets with some emotion as well. Sometimes all the data pans out in the favor of a certain team but if my gut is way off then I don't bet anything. The most important lesson you can learn in baseball capping or any capping is to know when to walk away. When the card isn't making sense to you then take the night off, or maybe even two nights in a row. Sometimes you are missing information and a night off or two helps you gain the missing information.

But patience and good money management is the main key. I really recommend to read a lot of stuff from famous investors like Buffett on the psychology of dealing with losses. By learning to identify cognitive biases in your gambling you will become more and more successful in employing and developing your various systems for sports betting.

This is a very broad subject which I can talk hours about but gambling does have a lot of similarities with investing so you should try to treat it as such and refine your skills.

dodgerblue88 · Answer

hahaha yeah I understand that its not the easiest thing in the world.

however, I do see guys on here like BoB(bids on bats) and other like him who seem to have a very systematical approach and also seem to deliver steady returns.

undermysac · Answer

Never ever judge a team a team by their performance the day before. Next game is it&#x27;s own, different pitcher and a ton of new splits along w/ him. Different ump and different weather, maybe different time of day, maybe a different lineup...

everzz · Answer

Well you could always analyze your plays and if they match with BoB it could serve as some form of indicator if you will. Or just plain copy his plays

trainwreck66 · Answer

alcohol

Choosenone21 · Answer

Very tough I built up my own spreadsheet database spent many days and hours still not getting good results. I learned that it is very hard to find patterns. Any team can get hot and cold in a hurry. Minnesota Twins are a good example right now. Been bad all year having a winning record in July. I guess what I&#x27;m trying to say is don&#x27;t become too complacent.

dodgerblue88 · Answer

A big hang up for me is taking data such as SP, bullpen and hitters stats and turning that into a % likelihood that a given will beat another.

I can look at stats that I believe are important for the result of a game but I have trouble turning those numbers in to ONE number that I can then compare to the line given by the books.

Choosenone21 · Answer

A lot of those numbers such as stats we look at they already are accounted for. I see many times why a favorite is a favorite. Does it mean its a 100% win? No not really. Even if a guy hits a pitcher really well doesn&#x27;t necessarily mean he&#x27;s going to do well. Astros are a good example last night. Great numbers of Pineda, but only managed one run in a loss. Carlos Correa was hitting .833 off Pineda went 0 for 3.

Wess_Tijuana · Answer

Right; in reading thru the forum for the 25th, if there was a sharp best bet consensus, it was Houston at home yesterday vs New York

A ton of respected handicappers on Houston yesterday

Houston loses 2-1

What is our takeaway from that?

Did hard work uncover value at a select price-- and thus was in fact the correct play from a handicapping perspective-- but it simply did not win?

Or, is our takeaway that if a bet is screaming value at a select price, then we must run as fast as we can in the opposite direction?

Which is it?

The Handicapper's Lament

Add that to this special corollary for football: "I can handicap any matchup; I cannot handicap turnovers"

elia20 · Answer

You can not guarantee winningbut you can guarantee not losing that much and giving yourself a CHANCE to make some moneymoney management , patient, and not chasing all in can be a nice way to give yourself a chance to win

Newtons Law · Answer

Baseball by far is the quickest way to drain a bank account

GuardiaDeMieux · Answer

@dodgerblue88&#x27;I guess the real question is how to become a handicapper in the first place&#x27;From my perspective, I believe a solid start would be to understand that a strong degree of your success/failure as a handicapper is due to your control over your own emotions.  Players are gonna play, home runs are gonna be made, and Bruce Bochy will...always look funny on camera...lol.  Seriously though, profit will be made/lost primarily from how you handle your emotions during a win or loss.  Get a firm grasp &amp; understanding of how this gambling system is setup (and made profitable every year to the sport books) based off of our inability/unawareness/unwillingness to get a grasp on our emotional state, during wins/losses.  Realize that initially, and everything else will fall into place over time (money management, handicapping, etc).Good luck to you...

dodgerblue88 · Answer

Thanks for a lot of the good input here, i appreciate all the info.

Seems as tho you can have all the right data and even pick the "correct" team and still losses will come, its all about how you deal with that and having discipline i.e. money management.

I am still looking for some advice as to what you all think are the most important factors when looking at a prospective game. In the spread sheet I am building I have included:

SP Last 30 days

Offense rank

Team W/L last 10G

Home V Road splits

Defense rank

Bullpen rank

But haven't decided how I want to weight each variable.

How to become a better baseball handicapper?

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