Posted:
#1
I know Atlanta is hot. I know you can come up with tons of reasons why you shouldn't take this bet. Here is what I think:
The line was totally off with C.Lee on the mound yesterday. Lee hasn't been in his form since Spring Training. After the 1-0 beat down last night, I wasn't sure if I could back Phillies until the line came out. Simple reason: A.J Burnett was hurt the last outing. He went 4 1/3 innings , allowed 2 runs before leaving discomfort. He has struggled in his career against the Braves (10-4), going 5-12 with a 4.14 ERA in 21 appearances and losing seven of his last eight decisions and Atlanta opened up at only -122? Looks fishy but very tempting.
Even though Phillies
have fared well against left-handers batting .315 with seven home runs in 127 at-bats, but with the way how the series go so far, they struggle big time with offense for sure.
With the majority of bettors taking the Braves today, here are some trends that I really think will be the factors:
1. Braves are on an 0-7 run if they are off a 1 run road win, while scoring 2 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a 1 run home loss and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits.
2. The Phillies are 12-2 at home off a home loss where they scored 2 or less and had 4 or less hits, and have won 4 of 6 in day games.
3. They are averaging 5.7 runs and hitting .295 under the sun. They are also 7-1 of late in home games vs lefties. Atlanta is scoring 2.8 runs on .206 hitting in day games .
4.The Phillies have A.J. Burnett going and he has won 12 of his last 14 home starts in April.
The play : Phillies ML and +1.5
0
good luck to you too
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