I book with a low vig shop for MLB offing -105.
EXAMPLE 1: Their lines on 66% favorites come in at -210/+190. A vig calculator will tell you the vig on this is 2.22%. But is the vig evenly divided between the favorite and the dog, as most people would assume?
-210/+190 indicates a 66.7% probability, or 2 out of 3, as far as I'm concerned. Close enough.
Let's say you bet the dog 3 times and you win 1 and lose 2. You risk $100 per game, so your total risk was $300 and your total loss was $10...
(+$190) (-$100) (-$100) = (-$10)
If you risk $300 and lose $10, in percentage terms, betting the dog lost 3.33%
Let's say you bet the favorite 3 times and you win 2 and lose 1. You risk $210 per game, so your total risk was $630 and your total loss was $10...
(+$100) (+$100) (-$210) = (-$10)
If you risk $630 and lose $10 on the favorite, in percentage terms betting the favorite lost $1.59%
EXAMPLE 2: Now, bump the odds of winning to 3 out of 4. The book I'm using offers that as -325/+275. Vig calculator shows vig of 3.14%.
Assume you bet the dog 4 times and go 1-3. You lose $25 on $400 of risk. Betting the dog lost 6.25%
If you bet the favorite in that example and go 3-1, you lose $25 on $1,300 of risk. Betting the favorite lost 1.92%
EXAMPLE 3: I'll use a final example... 4 out of 7, which is 57.1%. That is reflected with -138/+128.
If you bet the dog 7 times and win 3 and lose 4, you'd be out $16 on $700 of risk. Betting the dog lost 2.28%.
If you bet the favorite 7 times and win 4 and lose 3, you'd be out $14 on $966 of risk. Betting the favorite lost 1.44%.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In the first example (-210/+190) the vig on the dog is about 2X the vig on the favorite.
In the second example, (-325/+275) the vig on dog is about 3.25X the vig on the favorite.
If this final example, (-138/+128) the vig on the dog is about 1.5X the vig on the favorite.
Sooooo... am I right to assume that a system to bet MLB favorites has lower vig than a system to bet MLB dogs? Seems like I should be focused on betting favorites only. Or am I doing something wrong with my math?
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