When this line opened at Toronto -155 and KC +145 this was a tough decision for me. I hate laying significant juice on the road and generally betting against KC at home over the past couple of years is an even worse idea.
With the current line shifting all the way down to Toronto -114/KC +109 (5dimes) this game becomes an easy decision. Incidentally, if you are not wagering at 5dimes, you should be. They charge the lowest juice, they pay out and they move their lines around.
With the teams being so good and so evenly matched, this game really comes down to the pitching matchup. Over the past month Volquez has been slightly off of ideal form giving up 14 runs over his past 30 innings for a 4.2 ERA while Estrada is running significantly better (40/12/3.33). Both pitchers have been rounding into better form over their past 3 starts, but those stats again favor Estrada.
At -114, I see tremendous value in Estrada and don't expect a better price on him before first pitch.
Take the JAYS -114, one unit (Postseason record 11-8, not great but winning nonetheless).
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
When this line opened at Toronto -155 and KC +145 this was a tough decision for me. I hate laying significant juice on the road and generally betting against KC at home over the past couple of years is an even worse idea.
With the current line shifting all the way down to Toronto -114/KC +109 (5dimes) this game becomes an easy decision. Incidentally, if you are not wagering at 5dimes, you should be. They charge the lowest juice, they pay out and they move their lines around.
With the teams being so good and so evenly matched, this game really comes down to the pitching matchup. Over the past month Volquez has been slightly off of ideal form giving up 14 runs over his past 30 innings for a 4.2 ERA while Estrada is running significantly better (40/12/3.33). Both pitchers have been rounding into better form over their past 3 starts, but those stats again favor Estrada.
At -114, I see tremendous value in Estrada and don't expect a better price on him before first pitch.
Take the JAYS -114, one unit (Postseason record 11-8, not great but winning nonetheless).
One key part of this analysis I neglected to discuss is the Donaldson vs. Volquez angle. While I don't necessarily like the way Donaldson goes about his business (he seems to get involved in a lot of verbal confrontations with opposing pitchers), he is definitely coming into this game with a chip on his shoulder in regard to Volquez. Volques is quite vocal in his opinion of Donaldson (and he might be on the money) calling Donaldson a baby for complaining so much about inside pitching.
These guys do not like each other. They both will be amped up. If Donaldson can hit this guy in the first inning, it just might cause Volquez to crumble. It is just one more factor in this game that can get inside the head of Volquez.
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One key part of this analysis I neglected to discuss is the Donaldson vs. Volquez angle. While I don't necessarily like the way Donaldson goes about his business (he seems to get involved in a lot of verbal confrontations with opposing pitchers), he is definitely coming into this game with a chip on his shoulder in regard to Volquez. Volques is quite vocal in his opinion of Donaldson (and he might be on the money) calling Donaldson a baby for complaining so much about inside pitching.
These guys do not like each other. They both will be amped up. If Donaldson can hit this guy in the first inning, it just might cause Volquez to crumble. It is just one more factor in this game that can get inside the head of Volquez.
Nope. KC takes game one. Toronto takes game 2 behind Price. Volquez will be ready for this one.
I think just the opposite as I think this is a very evenly matched series and will go 6 or 7. Price has been in terrible form lately and I just don't think he has the mental capacity for playoff baseball. He has a extremely poor postseason history and I do not plan on bucking that trend in game 2. Of course, the line is not out yet, so no need to get ahead of myself. However, I expect that Price's postseason stats will once again be ignored and he will be a game 2 favorite. That will be my opportunity to jump on KC if I am correct about game 1.
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Quote Originally Posted by Txcarr:
Nope. KC takes game one. Toronto takes game 2 behind Price. Volquez will be ready for this one.
I think just the opposite as I think this is a very evenly matched series and will go 6 or 7. Price has been in terrible form lately and I just don't think he has the mental capacity for playoff baseball. He has a extremely poor postseason history and I do not plan on bucking that trend in game 2. Of course, the line is not out yet, so no need to get ahead of myself. However, I expect that Price's postseason stats will once again be ignored and he will be a game 2 favorite. That will be my opportunity to jump on KC if I am correct about game 1.
KC --Price is just grooving pitches in there, no edginess to his game. It is what it is, and damned if I back a dude throwing like that.
That's what I have seen. No way I'm taking Price as a favorite in game 2. He had no pressure on him in mop up duty in game 4 and still looked bad.
My bad wildcat. VegasInsider has the opening line at -155 with no mention of it being the series price. Either way, I still like Toronto. 5dimes did have Toronto -124 last night....I saw that with my own eyes.
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Quote Originally Posted by Relax_Dude:
KC --Price is just grooving pitches in there, no edginess to his game. It is what it is, and damned if I back a dude throwing like that.
That's what I have seen. No way I'm taking Price as a favorite in game 2. He had no pressure on him in mop up duty in game 4 and still looked bad.
My bad wildcat. VegasInsider has the opening line at -155 with no mention of it being the series price. Either way, I still like Toronto. 5dimes did have Toronto -124 last night....I saw that with my own eyes.
Yes, I have been monitoring the reduced juice prices on 5dimes. I am going to the game tonight, will be rooting for the Royals but Jays are the pick for the series. Volquez may get lit up early, don't like KC starters, but love their bullpen. I see a split in KC, then Jays take both at home.
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Yes, I have been monitoring the reduced juice prices on 5dimes. I am going to the game tonight, will be rooting for the Royals but Jays are the pick for the series. Volquez may get lit up early, don't like KC starters, but love their bullpen. I see a split in KC, then Jays take both at home.
Nice that you get to go see your team play. I am a Mets fan and I have been calculating the cost for me to get to a game. I have family in the NY area, but between airfare, a rental car and the ticket I would be around 1K. That's a lot. I would have to make a very large bet if I spent 1K getting inside the stadium.
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Nice that you get to go see your team play. I am a Mets fan and I have been calculating the cost for me to get to a game. I have family in the NY area, but between airfare, a rental car and the ticket I would be around 1K. That's a lot. I would have to make a very large bet if I spent 1K getting inside the stadium.
I too am a NYM fan. I'm from the BX and was at the game Tuesday night. Glad they pulled it out on the road. CitiField was an amazing environment, the best I've seen it by far. It's worth backing them 2300/2000 for Game 1. Stay locally and come back thr following day for another solid play. The Mets will win these two at home. Mets in 6 in the end IMO.
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I too am a NYM fan. I'm from the BX and was at the game Tuesday night. Glad they pulled it out on the road. CitiField was an amazing environment, the best I've seen it by far. It's worth backing them 2300/2000 for Game 1. Stay locally and come back thr following day for another solid play. The Mets will win these two at home. Mets in 6 in the end IMO.
Yes, the KC bullpen is untouchable. We had great seats and when Volquez got past the jam in the 6th, it was over! The place was electric, as it will be in Toronto I'm sure. Royals deserve some respect, they don't have the superstars with great stats but are very deep and their defense is awesome. The key is making sure their starters get deep into the game with the lead.
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
Well that certainly didn't go as planned. KC is really good. Their bullpen is from another planet. Maybe it's time I stopped going against them.
Congrats KC backers! You were the smart ones tonight!
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Yes, the KC bullpen is untouchable. We had great seats and when Volquez got past the jam in the 6th, it was over! The place was electric, as it will be in Toronto I'm sure. Royals deserve some respect, they don't have the superstars with great stats but are very deep and their defense is awesome. The key is making sure their starters get deep into the game with the lead.
Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:
Well that certainly didn't go as planned. KC is really good. Their bullpen is from another planet. Maybe it's time I stopped going against them.
Congrats KC backers! You were the smart ones tonight!
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