June 22 Mariners vs Oakland

The second longest day of the year yielded similar results for the Mariners as the longest day of the year did . . . and for Wedge, it must feel like groundhog day.  This team cannot afford mistakes if it wants to compete with the better teams in the league.  And Iwakuma left some pitches up and Saunders and Seager both cost the team a precious out in a close game.  The Mariners need every single one of their 27 outs to have a decent chance versus Oakland, and last night, they tried to win with 25 outs.

Moving forward, Aaron Harang has quietly become Safeco Joe Part Due.

Aaron Harang at Safeco
6 starts, 34.1 ip, 31 hits, 5 bb, 33 k, .235 opp avg, .675 opp ops

Aaron Harang on the Road
5 starts, 25.1 ip, 37 hits, 4 bb, 23 k, .322 opp avg, .944 opp ops

Most importantly, Harang has done this with a sustainable BABIP of .274 . . . that number should increase a bit, but it's entirely possible he stays in that range for an entire season.

Meanwhile, his road BABIP is rather high at .356 and that number should regress a bit ore than his home numbers. 

In spite of all the home runs hit last night, this is still a pitcher's ballpark, and pitchers can get away with more mistake pitches, or they can survive if the home plate ump forces them to get a bigger chunk of the plate for a strike.

Note that his Ip per start at Safeco is flattered by two shutouts,  in general, he is a guy that will need bullpen help to get to the promised land.  Oakland is not exactly the Houston Astros when it comes to plate prowess, so I will not be projecting another CG from Harang.

To Play the Mariners today, i might give consideration to the first half line and eliminate the Mariners pen from the equation.

always enjoy reading your Seattle insight.... 

Mariners offense may get a boost today . . . Franklin Gutierrez is eligible to come off the 60 day DL and I believe his rehab assignment has to end today as well. 

Franklin Gutierrez has been activated and will start tonight.
Michael Morse is finally sent to the DL

Straily has been pretty average since his debut vs the then, very lowly astros.  37k to 17 walks.  He can be hit. 

At this point, i prefer Mariners 1st half at +109 as opposed to ML at +114 . . . should I decide to back the home squad.

A's bats are hot, and you are saying the M's can light it up tonight. why not take the over 7.5? do you think this is a better play? 

I don't like any Over play with the mariners these days,  mainly because of their offense, but also because the starting pitching has been very good in most starts since early June.

In short, I think this game is a toss up . . . the a's have inflated "lately numbers" due to two games vs iwakuma where they hit 4 hr in each game.  Clearly, I think Oakland is the better team and they have the better offense, but I think the game is a toss up with Harang at Safeco Field . . . thus I like the plus prices for the first half

or i could be flat out wrong.

Mariners First Half ML at +114 tonight for me

What the hell, Mariners ML tonight. Edgar Martinez will get a pinch-hit grand slam in the 9th. Wait, what year is it? :)

I went with Mariners ML.  

Your thread is always a good read. Thanks for posting, 3825.

Henry Blanco is about the same age, maybe he can get it done

Actually didn't get it in on time so I'm going to do something more productive than watch the Mariners.  Party time.  

This is going to be along five innings if Harang keeps this up

Nice friggin night in the big city for that, i'll be doing the same when this pig is over.

great edit system on old covers these days.  i must not cuss enough, I've never seen that before

it's never easy with this club

This whole mariners team and management should be down graded to double A.  They are so pathetic, that you can't even call them "professional"

3825- in all honesty, you should top doing these great, intelligent writeups for the useless mariners.  You better than these guys.  Your excellent writeups don't even match this disgusting, pathetic, supposedly "MLB" team. 

Stop doing these great writeups*

I took over 7 1/2 for 1k....way to easy to lay off....