-Inputting all games to develop patterns. March to May 1 and then new section for May 1 to June 14 and finally, the heat ball season from June 15 - Sept 15.
-Each period will likely develop its own pattern (from experience).
-By June 14, we should see max effort with starters before teams bring in callups during the last HEAT season and Sept push.
This first session, I do not expect a record to be STRONG because I will be relying on minimal pattern analysis and gut calls mostly after what I feel is a reversal pattern vector moment on Totals or wins/losses. Its a feel thing but hoping my charting picks up those best vector moments...
GL everyone
1 U = $80
Half U = $40
For housekeeping sake, I will shave off about 10% from my rake of Units to account for juice but not always will I be taking favorites. For easier record keeping, I will just count wins as ATS/Totals together. Parlays do not go into that category. They will be considered EXOTIC bets and only occasionally if I see something worthwhile
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
BIG LEAGUE BALL IS BACK!
-Inputting all games to develop patterns. March to May 1 and then new section for May 1 to June 14 and finally, the heat ball season from June 15 - Sept 15.
-Each period will likely develop its own pattern (from experience).
-By June 14, we should see max effort with starters before teams bring in callups during the last HEAT season and Sept push.
This first session, I do not expect a record to be STRONG because I will be relying on minimal pattern analysis and gut calls mostly after what I feel is a reversal pattern vector moment on Totals or wins/losses. Its a feel thing but hoping my charting picks up those best vector moments...
GL everyone
1 U = $80
Half U = $40
For housekeeping sake, I will shave off about 10% from my rake of Units to account for juice but not always will I be taking favorites. For easier record keeping, I will just count wins as ATS/Totals together. Parlays do not go into that category. They will be considered EXOTIC bets and only occasionally if I see something worthwhile
-dome closed lighting is tricky for hitters with live pitching early in the season since they have adjusted their eyes mostly to spring sun so I expect that to be a factor today and a strong start for Berrios
Certain factors will matter to my selections early on and what I pay attention to:
-temperature and air density
-adjusting to speed pitchers by the hitters
-east coast team travelling to west coast (game #1)
-day vs night totals
-streaks - 2 or 3 day ones early looking for pivots (vector points) and then lengthen later as we get into heat season
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Strong Leans today and one play:
Rangers +1.5
Blue Jays win
Yankees Over 7.5
Phillies -1.5
Blue Jays Under 8.5 x HALF U
-dome closed lighting is tricky for hitters with live pitching early in the season since they have adjusted their eyes mostly to spring sun so I expect that to be a factor today and a strong start for Berrios
Certain factors will matter to my selections early on and what I pay attention to:
-temperature and air density
-adjusting to speed pitchers by the hitters
-east coast team travelling to west coast (game #1)
-day vs night totals
-streaks - 2 or 3 day ones early looking for pivots (vector points) and then lengthen later as we get into heat season
Toronto x HALF U - Scherzer with a strong record vs this batting lineup and a nice follow up to Gausman .....Scherzer will get close calls nibbling the edges and keep the Orioles on the back foot
Scherzer will have to be careful with Mullens who is off to a hot start and hits him well....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Toronto x HALF U - Scherzer with a strong record vs this batting lineup and a nice follow up to Gausman .....Scherzer will get close calls nibbling the edges and keep the Orioles on the back foot
Scherzer will have to be careful with Mullens who is off to a hot start and hits him well....
The Pattern Of Three: - simulating (using my charts > every recorded on spreadsheet)....not official plays/will keep a SIMULATION RECORD until I am ready to act on Pattern of Three or Pattern of Four
Jays 2 Overs > goes Under today?
Boston 2 Unders > goes Over today?
Dodgers 2 Overs > goes Under today?
Dodgers 2 wins in a row > Tigers take a game?
Seattle 2 Unders in a row > game goes OVER?
Mets 2 Unders in a row > game goes OVER?
Braves lose 2 in a row > get win in game 3 ?
P3 loss breakers: 0 - 0
P3 Total breakers: 0 - 0
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
The Pattern Of Three: - simulating (using my charts > every recorded on spreadsheet)....not official plays/will keep a SIMULATION RECORD until I am ready to act on Pattern of Three or Pattern of Four
Simple Rule until I have some data > I will not bet against a P3 or P4 play so for instance,
-really like Red Sox - Texas Under 9 > might play Texas instead (Mahle completely controls this Boston lineup)
Gut Calls: NO = Not Official
-wind blowing out and good hitting stats against both pitchers including homers > like OVER 9 in Phillies/Nationals (NO)
- both pitchers in Cubs-Ariz have the edge on the hitters > 2 Games were high scoring > strong lean to UNDER 8.5 (NO)
- Olson with good stats vs Dodger and Sasaki should be strong in his first start > strong lean to UNDER 8
- Bryce Miller with strong stats vs the As > lean to Seattle but have to watch how they hit to start the season ....As pitcher Bido has been a pinata for the Mariners so far in his career > would not do runline here .... ML parlay instead
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Interesting discussion in Blue Jay broadcast and something to watch >> look at the Yankees game .... Judge with 3 HRs.
(1) ball is flying off the bat everywhere
(2) umps are calling tight strike zone because they got so used to video strikes and don't want to guess.....hmmm
Simple Rule until I have some data > I will not bet against a P3 or P4 play so for instance,
-really like Red Sox - Texas Under 9 > might play Texas instead (Mahle completely controls this Boston lineup)
Gut Calls: NO = Not Official
-wind blowing out and good hitting stats against both pitchers including homers > like OVER 9 in Phillies/Nationals (NO)
- both pitchers in Cubs-Ariz have the edge on the hitters > 2 Games were high scoring > strong lean to UNDER 8.5 (NO)
- Olson with good stats vs Dodger and Sasaki should be strong in his first start > strong lean to UNDER 8
- Bryce Miller with strong stats vs the As > lean to Seattle but have to watch how they hit to start the season ....As pitcher Bido has been a pinata for the Mariners so far in his career > would not do runline here .... ML parlay instead
So the premise I have is, when a team in baseball losses 2 games, or wins two games in a row.....it reverts to the mean and a streak of 3 or more is an anomaly and this can be tapped if the handicapping you do the 3rd game, justifies a strong decision to go with this pattern.... OR NOT. For now, I prefer to use the handicapping.
What did I find out yesterday?
-in 5x instances, when 2 teams in a series had gone OVER or UNDER for two games in a row, they continued on their pattern to play a total OVER or UNDER for a 3rd time which counters my handicapping thesis I am recording on /testing
-in 2x instances, when one team dominated the series and won, it also did so for the third game in a row which counters my handicapping pattern thesis
Today, it will test 8 matchups:
Which team or total do I think will break the streak? > Minnesota with Bailey Ober on the mound
Which team do I think will NOT break the streak for Totals? > Brewers - Yankees with a twice as stronger wind blowing out to centrefield and warmer at Yankee stadium and likely Oakland - Seattle with two pitchers with stellar records vs each other and weak hitting lineups
Half U on Yankees OVER 8.5 for me
Half U on Oakland/Sea Under 7.5
Half U on Twins @ 1.87 * bet last night
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
So the premise I have is, when a team in baseball losses 2 games, or wins two games in a row.....it reverts to the mean and a streak of 3 or more is an anomaly and this can be tapped if the handicapping you do the 3rd game, justifies a strong decision to go with this pattern.... OR NOT. For now, I prefer to use the handicapping.
What did I find out yesterday?
-in 5x instances, when 2 teams in a series had gone OVER or UNDER for two games in a row, they continued on their pattern to play a total OVER or UNDER for a 3rd time which counters my handicapping thesis I am recording on /testing
-in 2x instances, when one team dominated the series and won, it also did so for the third game in a row which counters my handicapping pattern thesis
Today, it will test 8 matchups:
Which team or total do I think will break the streak? > Minnesota with Bailey Ober on the mound
Which team do I think will NOT break the streak for Totals? > Brewers - Yankees with a twice as stronger wind blowing out to centrefield and warmer at Yankee stadium and likely Oakland - Seattle with two pitchers with stellar records vs each other and weak hitting lineups
How is AI affecting Sportsbetting and Baseball maybe?
-I know Oddsshark has been using it the longest and I see an interesting trend.....yesterday and today when I peer in AFTER I do my own analysis because I never want to rely solely on AI...its not fun and not proven to be lucrative (YET!)
Today, OS has every baseball game going OVER!
-biggest win spread or run difference is Seattle winning over Oakland
- Minnesota is predicted to win comfortably over their opponent
-Yankees are predicted to go OVER but not by much
Take this all with a grain of salt....and that I am only doing a correlation with my angles vs what AI thinks
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
How is AI affecting Sportsbetting and Baseball maybe?
-I know Oddsshark has been using it the longest and I see an interesting trend.....yesterday and today when I peer in AFTER I do my own analysis because I never want to rely solely on AI...its not fun and not proven to be lucrative (YET!)
Today, OS has every baseball game going OVER!
-biggest win spread or run difference is Seattle winning over Oakland
- Minnesota is predicted to win comfortably over their opponent
-Yankees are predicted to go OVER but not by much
Take this all with a grain of salt....and that I am only doing a correlation with my angles vs what AI thinks
More importantly, the patterns I am looking at are providing some situational spots to bet and laying off other hunches because in reality and baseball, that is what they are and giving away juice chasing faves is a losing proposition
Pattern Analysis Recap later...
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
2 - 1today > puts me at 3 - 3 on the season
More importantly, the patterns I am looking at are providing some situational spots to bet and laying off other hunches because in reality and baseball, that is what they are and giving away juice chasing faves is a losing proposition
On watchfor these trend breaks of 3rd or 4th game in a trend :
Padres to go Over
Dodgers to Lose
Dodgers to go Under
Milwaukee win
Milwaukee Under
Pittsburgh Win
St. Louis Lose
Miami Lose
Miami lose to lefthander
Atlanta Over
Mets Over
Houston Over
LA Angels Lose
La Angels Over
Seattle Over
Texas Lose
Oakland Over
White Sox Win
White Sox Over
Tigers Win
Tigers Under
Minnesota Win
Red Sox Win
Yankees Under
Yankees Lose
Plenty of angles to consider > will be looking for 1-3 plays from those above to either break or go along with a trend like I did today with the Yankees Over and Seattle Under..... the matchup analytics will guide me. Once I have enough data on Breaking Trends statistics....will act on it more closely
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
On watchfor these trend breaks of 3rd or 4th game in a trend :
Padres to go Over
Dodgers to Lose
Dodgers to go Under
Milwaukee win
Milwaukee Under
Pittsburgh Win
St. Louis Lose
Miami Lose
Miami lose to lefthander
Atlanta Over
Mets Over
Houston Over
LA Angels Lose
La Angels Over
Seattle Over
Texas Lose
Oakland Over
White Sox Win
White Sox Over
Tigers Win
Tigers Under
Minnesota Win
Red Sox Win
Yankees Under
Yankees Lose
Plenty of angles to consider > will be looking for 1-3 plays from those above to either break or go along with a trend like I did today with the Yankees Over and Seattle Under..... the matchup analytics will guide me. Once I have enough data on Breaking Trends statistics....will act on it more closely
b. Breaking Unders > next game to go OVER = 2 - 10 << much harder to play an Over
c. Breaking a Win Streak > fade the 3rd or 4th game = 2 - 5
d. Breaking a Losing Streak > take to win 3rd game or 4th game after 2-3 losses = 2 - 5
Too early to tell what can work.....but if you were looking for Unders and staying with win or loss streaks, you were likely making good $$ these past couple of days!
Let's see where the data takes us to next Sunday
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
3rd or 4th Game Trend Breaker Records:
a. Breaking Overs > next game UNDER = 4 - 0
b. Breaking Unders > next game to go OVER = 2 - 10 << much harder to play an Over
c. Breaking a Win Streak > fade the 3rd or 4th game = 2 - 5
d. Breaking a Losing Streak > take to win 3rd game or 4th game after 2-3 losses = 2 - 5
Too early to tell what can work.....but if you were looking for Unders and staying with win or loss streaks, you were likely making good $$ these past couple of days!
[Quote: Originally Posted by Last2thirst]My early play just blew up.....going for UNDER 8.5 St. Louis x HALF U as my other favorite play of the day[/Quote
0 - 2 day.... in process of doing an analysis and results...will report tonight or in the morning
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
[Quote: Originally Posted by Last2thirst]My early play just blew up.....going for UNDER 8.5 St. Louis x HALF U as my other favorite play of the day[/Quote
0 - 2 day.... in process of doing an analysis and results...will report tonight or in the morning
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