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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    LogCottage, HoustonSports.........

    Hog_Wild
    undermysac
    Julespussy
    LogCottage
    HoustonSports
    ...
    Participants:
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    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 4:37 AM ET #1

    .........and a few others, have brought up a very interesting, and controversial subject over the past several days- the sorry state of today's MLB Bullpens. Which got me thinking (actually, I've been thinking about it quite a bit this year as I can't even count the # of wagers I've lost due to Relievers). Some statements such as Pitch counts for Relievers, Relievers being soft and coddled to, Relievers that threw 18 pitches yesterday and 12 the night before- and God forbid we ask him to come out for a third night in a row

    Think about if you were a starting Pitcher that is cruising along throwing a great game and all of a sudden the infamous RED FLAG APPEARS- Your pitch count has reached the magical number of 100- and your Manager waddles out to the mound to take the ball from you. Is there one Reliever that you would feel comfortable giving the ball, and in essence, the outcome of YOUR game to. I'm really surprised a Starter hasn't gone Postal and bitch slapped, or beat the Sh!t out of a Reliever that's blown his win.

    Where did this magical road block # of 100 come from? Is this another ballad of Bill James Sabermetric Stat? With all the training, lifting, nutrition, supplements, etc today, one would think these guys would be able to throw more pitches. I remember Randy Johnson routinely throwing 120+ pitches and found this little statement

    Cheney's game was the most officially recorded in a game. They haven't always counted pitches but it's estimated that Leon Cadore of Brooklyn threw 345 pitches on May 1st, 1921 against Boston. The game was the longest game in Major League history (26 innings) and Cadore and Boston pitcher Joe Oeschger both pitched all 26 innings. It is estimated that Oeschger threw 319 pitches

    Sorry, I'm getting off track from what I wanted to hear some discussion on, but wanted to first point out that there's no reason these guys can't keep throwing and automatically get the BP going when the Starter get close to 100. Especially since there is a lack of quality Relievers to take over. In fact going back to my original Thread, I'd go further than saying a lack of, I would ask if there are ANY Relievers that if you were a Starting Pitcher that you would feel comfortable handing the ball to and turning YOUR GAME over to??

    With some of the old "Automatics" like Jansen, Davis, Papelbon, Chapman, Familia............... ALL blowing Saves recently- and not just a one time bad outing- but routinely losing games their Starters busted their Butts for 7-8 Innings, only to see them go up in smoke in 5 minutes (literally).

    I'd like to hear other comments and spins on it, as I know that a very high % of Posters/ readers here have gotten burned by this scenario this year. 

    I also know I will hear "just bet the First 5" and problem solved. I don't think it's that easy.

    Looking forward to hearing horror stories, solution, suggestions, or mostly open up a Thread to just vent, because other than batters routinely "watching strike 3" w/o moving their bat from their shoulder (a different discussion for another day ), Relievers in today's MLB is my biggest pet peeve 
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    .........and a few others, have brought up a very interesting, and controversial subject over the past several days- the sorry state of today's MLB Bullpens. Which got me thinking (actually, I've been thinking about it quite a bit this year as I can't even count the # of wagers I've lost due to Relievers). Some statements such as Pitch counts for Relievers, Relievers being soft and coddled to, Relievers that threw 18 pitches yesterday and 12 the night before- and God forbid we ask him to come out for a third night in a row

    Think about if you were a starting Pitcher that is cruising along throwing a great game and all of a sudden the infamous RED FLAG APPEARS- Your pitch count has reached the magical number of 100- and your Manager waddles out to the mound to take the ball from you. Is there one Reliever that you would feel comfortable giving the ball, and in essence, the outcome of YOUR game to. I'm really surprised a Starter hasn't gone Postal and bitch slapped, or beat the Sh!t out of a Reliever that's blown his win.

    Where did this magical road block # of 100 come from? Is this another ballad of Bill James Sabermetric Stat? With all the training, lifting, nutrition, supplements, etc today, one would think these guys would be able to throw more pitches. I remember Randy Johnson routinely throwing 120+ pitches and found this little statement

    Cheney's game was the most officially recorded in a game. They haven't always counted pitches but it's estimated that Leon Cadore of Brooklyn threw 345 pitches on May 1st, 1921 against Boston. The game was the longest game in Major League history (26 innings) and Cadore and Boston pitcher Joe Oeschger both pitched all 26 innings. It is estimated that Oeschger threw 319 pitches

    Sorry, I'm getting off track from what I wanted to hear some discussion on, but wanted to first point out that there's no reason these guys can't keep throwing and automatically get the BP going when the Starter get close to 100. Especially since there is a lack of quality Relievers to take over. In fact going back to my original Thread, I'd go further than saying a lack of, I would ask if there are ANY Relievers that if you were a Starting Pitcher that you would feel comfortable handing the ball to and turning YOUR GAME over to??

    With some of the old "Automatics" like Jansen, Davis, Papelbon, Chapman, Familia............... ALL blowing Saves recently- and not just a one time bad outing- but routinely losing games their Starters busted their Butts for 7-8 Innings, only to see them go up in smoke in 5 minutes (literally).

    I'd like to hear other comments and spins on it, as I know that a very high % of Posters/ readers here have gotten burned by this scenario this year. 

    I also know I will hear "just bet the First 5" and problem solved. I don't think it's that easy.

    Looking forward to hearing horror stories, solution, suggestions, or mostly open up a Thread to just vent, because other than batters routinely "watching strike 3" w/o moving their bat from their shoulder (a different discussion for another day ), Relievers in today's MLB is my biggest pet peeve 
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 5:05 AM ET #2

    They don't have beer and chicken anymore

    One thing you don't see anymore is pitchers throwing in. Back in the day they brushed batters back all the time. Now if they do it's warnings, ejections, fines and a social media fiasco.
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    They don't have beer and chicken anymore

    One thing you don't see anymore is pitchers throwing in. Back in the day they brushed batters back all the time. Now if they do it's warnings, ejections, fines and a social media fiasco.
     
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 5:26 AM ET #3

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    They don't have beer and chicken anymore

    One thing you don't see anymore is pitchers throwing in. Back in the day they brushed batters back all the time. Now if they do it's warnings, ejections, fines and a social media fiasco.


    Or Acid like Dock Ellis did back in 1970 when he threw a No-No while tripping. Maybe that's what some of these coddled Prima Donna's need. Give them a tab of Orange Sunshine and let 'em hurl . If nothing else it would be a lot more entertaining, and I bet we wouldn't be seeing any more 4+ hour games. And speaking of time, let the Umps turn on, tune in and drop out and we wouldn't be seeing 5 minute delays every time there's a Coaches Challenge- in fact there would be no need for reviews, as they would truly be seeing the plays in "Real Time" 
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    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    They don't have beer and chicken anymore

    One thing you don't see anymore is pitchers throwing in. Back in the day they brushed batters back all the time. Now if they do it's warnings, ejections, fines and a social media fiasco.


    Or Acid like Dock Ellis did back in 1970 when he threw a No-No while tripping. Maybe that's what some of these coddled Prima Donna's need. Give them a tab of Orange Sunshine and let 'em hurl . If nothing else it would be a lot more entertaining, and I bet we wouldn't be seeing any more 4+ hour games. And speaking of time, let the Umps turn on, tune in and drop out and we wouldn't be seeing 5 minute delays every time there's a Coaches Challenge- in fact there would be no need for reviews, as they would truly be seeing the plays in "Real Time" 
     
    Julespussy
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 8:52 AM ET #4

    Great thread. Two things come to mind....

    Do the stats indicate this is a worse year than usual for bullpens or is it always this atrocious?

    And best thread ever on Covers.... Dear G0d, hear comes Heath Bell...,
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    Great thread. Two things come to mind....

    Do the stats indicate this is a worse year than usual for bullpens or is it always this atrocious?

    And best thread ever on Covers.... Dear G0d, hear comes Heath Bell...,
     
    LogCottage
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 9:45 AM ET #5

    Great post, Hog. I, too, have wondered how they arrived at that magical pitch count number of 100. Why not 97 or 104?
    There's no other explanation as to why these relievers can no longer come into games and get 3 up and 3 down except they are not properly warmed up. And that goes back to these damn pitch counts.
    Now, even relief pitchers need a day or two off if they throw 15 to 20 pitches the night before. The thing that astonishes me is they are facing plenty of sub .220 hitters and they WALK these guys!

    I've been betting this sport on and off for over 45 years and have seen it deteriorate for several years due to the diluted talent that exists today and it's not just the pitchers. Guys don't hit the cutoff man, they never tag from 1st to 2nd....I haven't seen a drag bunt in over 30 years.
    Too many Single A players in major league uniforms.
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    Great post, Hog. I, too, have wondered how they arrived at that magical pitch count number of 100. Why not 97 or 104?
    There's no other explanation as to why these relievers can no longer come into games and get 3 up and 3 down except they are not properly warmed up. And that goes back to these damn pitch counts.
    Now, even relief pitchers need a day or two off if they throw 15 to 20 pitches the night before. The thing that astonishes me is they are facing plenty of sub .220 hitters and they WALK these guys!

    I've been betting this sport on and off for over 45 years and have seen it deteriorate for several years due to the diluted talent that exists today and it's not just the pitchers. Guys don't hit the cutoff man, they never tag from 1st to 2nd....I haven't seen a drag bunt in over 30 years.
    Too many Single A players in major league uniforms.
     
    HoustonSports
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 9:45 AM ET #6

    They are not allowed to drink whiskey any more at all as well. Grover Cleveland Alexander (look up his stats if you are not familiar with him) had a flask in his back pocket pitching in the world series
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    They are not allowed to drink whiskey any more at all as well. Grover Cleveland Alexander (look up his stats if you are not familiar with him) had a flask in his back pocket pitching in the world series
     
    Hoyasaxa
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 10:14 AM ET #7

    Hog, my friend, you are right but with the insane money these idiot starters are paid, the risk is great if you're wrong once that teams are scared to death it could be them...only the Braves Leo Mazzone understood arm strength in the recent era...

    Then you ask people to handle the mental pressure of coming in cold in the most important inning where batters concentrate the most, and you'll hear about the results and...it's like bringing Ovechkin to win game 7 or Dustin Johnson to win the back 9 today...

    I'm from Baltimore where they had 4 20 game winners one year! It's a freaking joke...I really hope with cord cutting, the TV money finally recedes and hence these over paid unappreciative lucky idiots finally see $ decrease and gratitude increases...and then maybe Strasburg goes 9!
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    Hog, my friend, you are right but with the insane money these idiot starters are paid, the risk is great if you're wrong once that teams are scared to death it could be them...only the Braves Leo Mazzone understood arm strength in the recent era...

    Then you ask people to handle the mental pressure of coming in cold in the most important inning where batters concentrate the most, and you'll hear about the results and...it's like bringing Ovechkin to win game 7 or Dustin Johnson to win the back 9 today...

    I'm from Baltimore where they had 4 20 game winners one year! It's a freaking joke...I really hope with cord cutting, the TV money finally recedes and hence these over paid unappreciative lucky idiots finally see $ decrease and gratitude increases...and then maybe Strasburg goes 9!
     
    HoustonSports
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 4:33 PM ET #8

    Yankees game today is a perfect example of another reason why you play 1st 5 innings only. Girardi (like most managers) have zero clue on how to properly manage a pitching staff. He left Eovaldi in 2 batters too long. The crazy thing is that I told a buddy of mine that Eovaldi was done and should be pulled before he was pulled. If I can see it then why do these 'big league managers' have so much trouble seeing it.

    If you played 1st 5 with the Yanks you got the win

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    Yankees game today is a perfect example of another reason why you play 1st 5 innings only. Girardi (like most managers) have zero clue on how to properly manage a pitching staff. He left Eovaldi in 2 batters too long. The crazy thing is that I told a buddy of mine that Eovaldi was done and should be pulled before he was pulled. If I can see it then why do these 'big league managers' have so much trouble seeing it.

    If you played 1st 5 with the Yanks you got the win

     
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 4:53 PM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

    Yankees game today is a perfect example of another reason why you play 1st 5 innings only. Girardi (like most managers) have zero clue on how to properly manage a pitching staff. He left Eovaldi in 2 batters too long. The crazy thing is that I told a buddy of mine that Eovaldi was done and should be pulled before he was pulled. If I can see it then why do these 'big league managers' have so much trouble seeing it.

    If you played 1st 5 with the Yanks you got the win


    Unfortunately, I'm stuck with the Twins because I live in the Twin Cities. But fortunately for you Houston, the Twins BP is THE WORSE IN MLB, and that includes the Reds, so I wouldn't be too concerned about losing your wager
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonSports:

    Yankees game today is a perfect example of another reason why you play 1st 5 innings only. Girardi (like most managers) have zero clue on how to properly manage a pitching staff. He left Eovaldi in 2 batters too long. The crazy thing is that I told a buddy of mine that Eovaldi was done and should be pulled before he was pulled. If I can see it then why do these 'big league managers' have so much trouble seeing it.

    If you played 1st 5 with the Yanks you got the win


    Unfortunately, I'm stuck with the Twins because I live in the Twin Cities. But fortunately for you Houston, the Twins BP is THE WORSE IN MLB, and that includes the Reds, so I wouldn't be too concerned about losing your wager
     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 5:01 PM ET #10

    Betances gave up a run anyway, but yes you are right Eovaldi was shakey there.

    I like this thread. Hope we get a variety of ideas and opinions on the topic.

    Think I'll post my top 5 vs bottom 5 pens later tonight. Gonna try to break em down w/ more detail this time
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    Betances gave up a run anyway, but yes you are right Eovaldi was shakey there.

    I like this thread. Hope we get a variety of ideas and opinions on the topic.

    Think I'll post my top 5 vs bottom 5 pens later tonight. Gonna try to break em down w/ more detail this time
     
    98ITR
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 5:20 PM ET #11

    Now that NHL is over and NBA tonight.. everybody will be on MLB
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    Now that NHL is over and NBA tonight.. everybody will be on MLB
     
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 7:07 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Betances gave up a run anyway, but yes you are right Eovaldi was shakey there.

    I like this thread. Hope we get a variety of ideas and opinions on the topic.

    Think I'll post my top 5 vs bottom 5 pens later tonight. Gonna try to break em down w/ more detail this time


    And what better way to segue Bumping this Thread than  just watching another magnificent Bullpen meltdown by the Brewers giving up a game tying Bomb in the eighth, then loading up the bases and walking in the game losing run for all Brewer backers

    I'm really curious to see what you come up with Sac.. Even though I was being somewhat facetious about the Twins Bullpen, as I'm sure your Stats will show that the Reds are the worst, not only this year, but possibly ever.

    As much as it hurts looking back at gambling losses, it would also be interesting to hear the biggest Bullpen meltdowns that have come back to bite everyone in the Arss.

     Mine was 3 weeks ago on B2B games where I bet the White Sox on May 27th when the Bullpen gave up a 5-2 lead using four Pitchers in the 7th Inning alone (how this for your BP to do it's job. 1st Reliever, Walk, 2nd Reliever, Single, Single to score, Wild Pitch, K, 3rd Reliever, Single to score tying and winning runs, 4th Reliever, K) to lose to the Royals 7-5. So if losing $300 wasn't enough, I had to chase it again the next night and doubling down.After the eigth I was in a happy place thinking about how I was going to spend my winnings. Not only did the the  White Sox have a comfortable 7 -1 lead going into the bottom of the ninth, but they weren't messing around and brought in their Ace Closer, David Robertson to shut down the Royals.  It only took 5 Royals runs for Douche Bag Ventura to figure out that maybe Robertson didn't have his best stuff that day. So he brings in Kahnle to save the game and preserve the White Sox win, right - WRONG. An immediate game tying Double, Wild Pitch, Walk (intentional), Steal, Walk (intentional) and walk of hit by Butera to steal the game and my $600. 

    Another fine example of the quality of Relievers in today.s MLB. Julespussy asked if the stats indicate that this is an anomaly this year, or always this atrocious. I'm sure we'll see form Sac's Stats, but I think it's been trending, actually spiraling downhill the past several years as the Reliever are getting paid more money, to pitch less Innings with more days of rest and being coddled to in between, but facing more batters, and giving up more walks, hits and runs while getting less outs 

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    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    Betances gave up a run anyway, but yes you are right Eovaldi was shakey there.

    I like this thread. Hope we get a variety of ideas and opinions on the topic.

    Think I'll post my top 5 vs bottom 5 pens later tonight. Gonna try to break em down w/ more detail this time


    And what better way to segue Bumping this Thread than  just watching another magnificent Bullpen meltdown by the Brewers giving up a game tying Bomb in the eighth, then loading up the bases and walking in the game losing run for all Brewer backers

    I'm really curious to see what you come up with Sac.. Even though I was being somewhat facetious about the Twins Bullpen, as I'm sure your Stats will show that the Reds are the worst, not only this year, but possibly ever.

    As much as it hurts looking back at gambling losses, it would also be interesting to hear the biggest Bullpen meltdowns that have come back to bite everyone in the Arss.

     Mine was 3 weeks ago on B2B games where I bet the White Sox on May 27th when the Bullpen gave up a 5-2 lead using four Pitchers in the 7th Inning alone (how this for your BP to do it's job. 1st Reliever, Walk, 2nd Reliever, Single, Single to score, Wild Pitch, K, 3rd Reliever, Single to score tying and winning runs, 4th Reliever, K) to lose to the Royals 7-5. So if losing $300 wasn't enough, I had to chase it again the next night and doubling down.After the eigth I was in a happy place thinking about how I was going to spend my winnings. Not only did the the  White Sox have a comfortable 7 -1 lead going into the bottom of the ninth, but they weren't messing around and brought in their Ace Closer, David Robertson to shut down the Royals.  It only took 5 Royals runs for Douche Bag Ventura to figure out that maybe Robertson didn't have his best stuff that day. So he brings in Kahnle to save the game and preserve the White Sox win, right - WRONG. An immediate game tying Double, Wild Pitch, Walk (intentional), Steal, Walk (intentional) and walk of hit by Butera to steal the game and my $600. 

    Another fine example of the quality of Relievers in today.s MLB. Julespussy asked if the stats indicate that this is an anomaly this year, or always this atrocious. I'm sure we'll see form Sac's Stats, but I think it's been trending, actually spiraling downhill the past several years as the Reliever are getting paid more money, to pitch less Innings with more days of rest and being coddled to in between, but facing more batters, and giving up more walks, hits and runs while getting less outs 

     
    undermysac
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 8:05 PM ET #13

    I remember that Sox game all too well man. I'll  see about the historical  stats as well, might take a while though
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    I remember that Sox game all too well man. I'll  see about the historical  stats as well, might take a while though
     
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 8:37 PM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    I remember that Sox game all too well man. I'll  see about the historical  stats as well, might take a while though

    Whenever you get to it 

     Be really wild to be able to correlate $$ paid to some of these guys for results- like how much different Relievers are making per out, per inning, per pitch thrown or anything like that. I don't know how difficult it would be to track the various Splits and stuff, but if you can, I bet some of the figures would be mind blowing.

    I remember when Joe Mauer signed his 8 year, $184 Million Contract, someone figured he was getting paid about $44,000 ever time he stepped up to the plate
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    Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

    I remember that Sox game all too well man. I'll  see about the historical  stats as well, might take a while though

    Whenever you get to it 

     Be really wild to be able to correlate $$ paid to some of these guys for results- like how much different Relievers are making per out, per inning, per pitch thrown or anything like that. I don't know how difficult it would be to track the various Splits and stuff, but if you can, I bet some of the figures would be mind blowing.

    I remember when Joe Mauer signed his 8 year, $184 Million Contract, someone figured he was getting paid about $44,000 ever time he stepped up to the plate
     
     
    pipedoctor
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    Posted: Jun. 19, 2016 - 9:10 PM ET #15

    ...jmho, managers scan the big picture (ie: generally thursday and sunday are travel days for the start of 3g/4g series)....thinkin the duration of a starter can hinge on how soon the manager wants to introduce his pen, with lots of intangibles, like division races or 'dont mean too much inter-league play' especially going after the rubber match in gm3, the starter might stay a little longer in gm2, maybe getting destroyed, so the pen is 'theroretically' ready to close out the rubber match, i rely much on sloppy laboured pens to push the late game overs, gl hog
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    ...jmho, managers scan the big picture (ie: generally thursday and sunday are travel days for the start of 3g/4g series)....thinkin the duration of a starter can hinge on how soon the manager wants to introduce his pen, with lots of intangibles, like division races or 'dont mean too much inter-league play' especially going after the rubber match in gm3, the starter might stay a little longer in gm2, maybe getting destroyed, so the pen is 'theroretically' ready to close out the rubber match, i rely much on sloppy laboured pens to push the late game overs, gl hog
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