LR MLB Friday 14/8 (back, well kinda)

PIt +107 (7.10pm EST)

Important Caveat. I decided to come back, but be a bit more selective this time. I have been getting killed by the line movement second half of the season. The methodology I will now use I also incorporated (at times) in the second half of last season.
Since I have been recording line movement for my picks this season, Below are the results:

Line in my favour and win: 32
Line in my favour and lost: 19
Line against and win: 17
Line against and loss: 21

If my lean tonight PIT is at +107 or less value (for example +107 or -101 or heck -120) I will make a play here 10 minutes prior to game. If the line goes against I will not make a play nor will I confirm that here. I use pinnacle prices. The problem with this methodology of course is that I will lose value of my leans by game time and I might still lose the game, but I'm hoping that the 32-19 sample (win percentage) will extend for the rest of the season using this methodology incorporating line movement.

I really liked KC last night, but the line moved sharply away from KC all day so I decided not to play and rightly so since LAA scored 4 runs top of the 9th. It is uncanny particularly in the second half of the season how many of these BP crashes occur when there is heavy line movement against that team such as what occured to KC yesterday. Of course this does not happen all the time in fact I rarely noticed line movement reflecting game outcomes in the first half of the season. But it seems that sharp money is reflecting results as we get into the latter end of the season.

As I stated in an earlier post I will continue playing this season until ROI is minimum 20% for this season. I got rash on the 7th of August because of some hefty losses where lines went sharply away. I'll stick about as long as I'm over the 20% threshold otherwise I'll call it a season.

Good luck on whatever plays you are having and thanks for reading.