May 6 Mariners vs Rays

Mariners Lineup

RF  Ichiro

2B  Figgins

1B  Kotchman

CF  Gutierrez

DH  Junior  (if you’re a fan, get to Safeco soon, his days may be numbered)

3B  Lopez

LF  Langerhans

SS  Josh Wilson  (downgrade in field)

C   Johnson  (neither of these guys can catch a pitch)

Rays Lineup

SS  Bartlett

LF  Crawford

2B  Zobrist

3B  Longoria

1B  Pena

CF  Upton

DH  Aybar

C   Jaso

RF  Kapler

i can't get in front of this Rays train,  but i also can't lay 40 cents juice on a team that hits worse on the road, hits worse vs lefties.

i won't bet on this theory, but i will avoid a play on it . . . one team is winning road games at a level that is not sustainable based on some of their other metrics, while the other simply isn't as bad as they've been playing.  40 cents is too steep for me.  i do think Tampa is the better team, and clearly they are playing better, but i'm not paying the freight to be on their train.

this feels like a "due" game, Jr hits a HR, Rays finally lose their 2nd road game, Figgins stretches his legs on the bases, Mariners defense and bullpen show up, etc etc etc.  i don't play teams that are "due", but i will avoid fading/backing them under this situation at times, and tonight is one of those times.

GL to those on the Rays, for me that's the strongest ML play, even with the juice.  tough to lay nearly 20 cents juice and need 7 or less runs to cash in the AL, even though it is the Mariners offense, but we all saw what happened last night, it takes just one bad bullpen inning, and that "7 runs" can quickly get in the rear view mirror.

There is another angle to consider . . . what can go wrong, will go wrong . . . bad news follows milton bradley like the plague followed turkish sheperds in the middle ages.  can't you just see the mariners ripping off 4 straight wins while Milton cools his heels on the restricted list (he's not even allowed to be with the team).  wouldn't it be classic Milton for his team to immediately get better once he's gone ?  kind of like the old "cobra venom off" angle at the breeders cup a few years back.

3825----

Have you seen the #s against Niemman.  Figgins is 4 for 6 against him, and the team is .283 

Take a chance on your boys--why not

agreed entirely, i will not touch this anemic offense at this price tonight,  i would play TB, but the gut says to stay away.

some people like them some people don't, i'm in the latter group

in general, i place little emphasis on batter-pitcher matchups, certainly some are worthy stats, but in general, the sample size is too small to be of much value in predicting future performance, and even matchups with larger sample sizes (20+ at bats) have very little deviation over how a batter or pitcher would normally perform in that game.

GL on the mariners play, i do think they are due for something good to happen.  we'll see . . . niehaus was classic after the bottom first . . . same old story for the mariners, 1-2-3 in the first inning. . .