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#1
The Braves are 6-1 while the Marlins are 1-6, which is precisely the polar opposite of what was projected for these two clubs prior to the season. Because of the hot start/cold start combination, we now find some value in backing the Marlins behind Tom Koehler. Koehler landed a spot in the starting rotation last spring and went on to post a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts. The biggest change in his skills was a boost in strikeout rate from a puny 5.8 K’s/9 in 2013 to a near league average 7.2 in 2014. His swing and miss rate hints at another very modest uptick. Koehler is not going to blow anyone away and he may even be the odd man out when Jose Fernandez returns. However, he has been a reliable starter and has had success against the Braves by allowing just 20 hits in 84 AB’s (.238) against current Braves. However, we’re not counting on Koehler to get us to the cashier’s window because his skills are middling. Instead, we’re relying on the potentially potent offense of the Fish to break out against Trevor Cahill.
First off, current Marlins have hit a combined .361 against Cahill with 44 hits in 122 combined AB’s. This past spring, Cahill worked 10 innings and surrendered 14 hits and walked five batters, which led to a xERA of 5.66. Last year, Cahill went 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 111 innings for the Diamondbacks. Cahill’s dreadful season included a bullpen demotion, a minor league stint and a career-high ERA. A change in approach didn't help, as his once-elite groundball % went away and his uptick in strikeouts came at the expense of his control, which first-pitch strike rate suggests may not recover. The Braves acquired Trevor Cahill on April 2nd and one day later made the somewhat surprising decision to release Wandy Rodriguez and keep Eric Stults. This seems like a desperation move by the Braves and one the Diamondbacks were quick to oblige. The setup here is sweet. The Braves are overpriced because of their hot start while the superior Marlins’ bats have been sleeping. Trevor Cahill provides the Marlins with a wake-up call and we’re quick to get behind it. So should you.
First off, current Marlins have hit a combined .361 against Cahill with 44 hits in 122 combined AB’s. This past spring, Cahill worked 10 innings and surrendered 14 hits and walked five batters, which led to a xERA of 5.66. Last year, Cahill went 3-12 with a 5.61 ERA in 111 innings for the Diamondbacks. Cahill’s dreadful season included a bullpen demotion, a minor league stint and a career-high ERA. A change in approach didn't help, as his once-elite groundball % went away and his uptick in strikeouts came at the expense of his control, which first-pitch strike rate suggests may not recover. The Braves acquired Trevor Cahill on April 2nd and one day later made the somewhat surprising decision to release Wandy Rodriguez and keep Eric Stults. This seems like a desperation move by the Braves and one the Diamondbacks were quick to oblige. The setup here is sweet. The Braves are overpriced because of their hot start while the superior Marlins’ bats have been sleeping. Trevor Cahill provides the Marlins with a wake-up call and we’re quick to get behind it. So should you.
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