Yeh I can understand that, last year was the Covid19 year which has a few differences they added in and some are still being done and for me the way the game is played and extra years players are getting to add to careers has added some twist to trying to figure out which 200 hitter is due today. I know there are guys that are doing well with some changes or maybe what they take into account is not affected by some changes or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling.
All I know since the Trump Virus I have not beat a sport that has put together some kind of season, next one is going to be the WNBA after I see where the players are playing, but of course the totals are high but now last few days they were hitting overs and I used to do well on unders as Vegas had inflated lines and you knew the teams that could hit those high 160s to low 170s, which is also 10 min. quarters and sometimes a team will have an 8 point 1/4, so it has it issues as any gambling does.
GL to everyone.
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Yeh I can understand that, last year was the Covid19 year which has a few differences they added in and some are still being done and for me the way the game is played and extra years players are getting to add to careers has added some twist to trying to figure out which 200 hitter is due today. I know there are guys that are doing well with some changes or maybe what they take into account is not affected by some changes or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling.
All I know since the Trump Virus I have not beat a sport that has put together some kind of season, next one is going to be the WNBA after I see where the players are playing, but of course the totals are high but now last few days they were hitting overs and I used to do well on unders as Vegas had inflated lines and you knew the teams that could hit those high 160s to low 170s, which is also 10 min. quarters and sometimes a team will have an 8 point 1/4, so it has it issues as any gambling does.
"or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling."
That would best align with the average mentality of today's player. Some of these guys still think if they are in 7-11 and a guy comes in with a mask on they better reach for the sky and yell "don't shoot, don't shoot!"
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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@JEG53
"or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling."
That would best align with the average mentality of today's player. Some of these guys still think if they are in 7-11 and a guy comes in with a mask on they better reach for the sky and yell "don't shoot, don't shoot!"
I know there are guys that are doing well with some changes or maybe what they take into account is not affected by some changes or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling.
Those guys adjusted. Occam's Razor.
Gamblers need to adjust. If I remember correctly about the all star break a few years ago MLB quietlysnuck in the juiced balls and we all got clobbered. Everyone's system took it on the chin.
Hindsight being 20-20 you needed to adjust the way you picked. IMHO starting and relief pitching weight needed to be scaled back in favor of hitting. The least affected were ground ball pitchers. Taking them F5. Taking dogs in hitters parks, etc... All these things that look real simple now we're not obvious at the time because the juiced balls were quietlysnuck in by the league.
Now this year the league admitted beforehand that they were tuning back the juice in the ball. We are seeing more movement on fastballs, better breaking balls. But my point is the less juiced ball and other covid rules were not snuck in.
For example the Covid rule baserunner on 2nd extra innings:
So small ball teams like DET in extra innings are going to fare better with that free runner on 2nd while the NYY are swinging for the seats. A great live bet for xtra inning games.
Although the new rules suck, juiced balls suck, etc it's the only baseball we got to bet on.
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:
I know there are guys that are doing well with some changes or maybe what they take into account is not affected by some changes or they just ignore every stupid thing baseball does and keep rolling.
Those guys adjusted. Occam's Razor.
Gamblers need to adjust. If I remember correctly about the all star break a few years ago MLB quietlysnuck in the juiced balls and we all got clobbered. Everyone's system took it on the chin.
Hindsight being 20-20 you needed to adjust the way you picked. IMHO starting and relief pitching weight needed to be scaled back in favor of hitting. The least affected were ground ball pitchers. Taking them F5. Taking dogs in hitters parks, etc... All these things that look real simple now we're not obvious at the time because the juiced balls were quietlysnuck in by the league.
Now this year the league admitted beforehand that they were tuning back the juice in the ball. We are seeing more movement on fastballs, better breaking balls. But my point is the less juiced ball and other covid rules were not snuck in.
For example the Covid rule baserunner on 2nd extra innings:
So small ball teams like DET in extra innings are going to fare better with that free runner on 2nd while the NYY are swinging for the seats. A great live bet for xtra inning games.
Although the new rules suck, juiced balls suck, etc it's the only baseball we got to bet on.
There are adjustments needed at all times in all sports in all seasons. Subtle changes occur slowly, like you contend about the juiced balls. Covid and the runner on second were sudden changes. But the one constant is CHANGE itself, it is always with us. When I supervised craftsmen the one thing I never wanted to hear from an applicant was "I have been doing it this way for 20 years, I'm not changing now." The only thing that told me is that the guy was inflexible and some of his knowledge or technique were 19 years out of date. We MUST adjust, or get lost in the ever changing atmosphere of reality. There is no point in relying on "it used to be" because it ain't going to be that way again, until either the cycle changes, which will happen like in hitting versus pitching, or we adapt to the way things are and are going to be for the foreseeable future. It ain't your grandpa's or your dad's game, and it isn't the game your grandchildren will enjoy either. Get over it.
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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@barneybeans
There are adjustments needed at all times in all sports in all seasons. Subtle changes occur slowly, like you contend about the juiced balls. Covid and the runner on second were sudden changes. But the one constant is CHANGE itself, it is always with us. When I supervised craftsmen the one thing I never wanted to hear from an applicant was "I have been doing it this way for 20 years, I'm not changing now." The only thing that told me is that the guy was inflexible and some of his knowledge or technique were 19 years out of date. We MUST adjust, or get lost in the ever changing atmosphere of reality. There is no point in relying on "it used to be" because it ain't going to be that way again, until either the cycle changes, which will happen like in hitting versus pitching, or we adapt to the way things are and are going to be for the foreseeable future. It ain't your grandpa's or your dad's game, and it isn't the game your grandchildren will enjoy either. Get over it.
Your right it is the only bet in town baseball wise but when they juice baseballs they should also raise the mound back to the original height, juice balls and lower mound is a double whammy IMO, but they never do anything to help pitchers assuming that pitchers have the advantage at that level. I would guess on covers you would get people with different ideas on who has the advantage or not I am not saying one over the other just that when baseball makes changes it is to help the hitters, but playing L.L. and up to HS and always being a pitcher I lean to their side in these matters.
I used to love striking guys out and a few of the big ones I can remember, I was also a second string QB in 11th grade which I got no pleasure from as I did being on the mound with the ball in my hand controlling the game, to me baseball was always the best game to watch and play, I also played organize basketball up to 10th grade so I had my moments with the 3 sports that were it when Key grew up.
Baseball was always #1 so as I see the Owners messing with the game more and more it seems and again IMO NOT for the better.
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@barneybeans
Your right it is the only bet in town baseball wise but when they juice baseballs they should also raise the mound back to the original height, juice balls and lower mound is a double whammy IMO, but they never do anything to help pitchers assuming that pitchers have the advantage at that level. I would guess on covers you would get people with different ideas on who has the advantage or not I am not saying one over the other just that when baseball makes changes it is to help the hitters, but playing L.L. and up to HS and always being a pitcher I lean to their side in these matters.
I used to love striking guys out and a few of the big ones I can remember, I was also a second string QB in 11th grade which I got no pleasure from as I did being on the mound with the ball in my hand controlling the game, to me baseball was always the best game to watch and play, I also played organize basketball up to 10th grade so I had my moments with the 3 sports that were it when Key grew up.
Baseball was always #1 so as I see the Owners messing with the game more and more it seems and again IMO NOT for the better.
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