Classic case of riding the HOT team and fading a team cooling off like a coke can in the refrigerator. Yanks come into today swinging hot sticks and winners of 5 of their last 7. On the contrary, Baltimore comes in losing 5 of their last 8.
Aside from HOT v COLD team results, the pitching match up is an interesting one. A look deeper into the numbers shows us the advantage we are seeking - Chad Green at home owns a nice 1.76 ERA v his road ERA of 4.88. In addition, his day game ERA is 1.08 vs his night ERA which sits at 5.08. This is simply a young kid starting to figure it out. His pre All-Star game ERA was 7.04 vs his post All star game ERA which sits at 1.50.
His counterpart today, Dylan "I like to call him Ted" Bundy has some intriguing stats despite his impressive 3.33 ERA. He struggle in DAY games owning a 4.94 ERA and owns a 7.36 ERA vs the Yanks in his career. Albeit a small sample size, the yankees have a combined .462 batting average vs him.
This is simply a great line with a tremendous amount of value!
Yanks ML (-108) *5 BIG BAGS OF STICKY SMELLY MUDDY SWAMP MONEY
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
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Pick: Yanks ML (-108)
Classic case of riding the HOT team and fading a team cooling off like a coke can in the refrigerator. Yanks come into today swinging hot sticks and winners of 5 of their last 7. On the contrary, Baltimore comes in losing 5 of their last 8.
Aside from HOT v COLD team results, the pitching match up is an interesting one. A look deeper into the numbers shows us the advantage we are seeking - Chad Green at home owns a nice 1.76 ERA v his road ERA of 4.88. In addition, his day game ERA is 1.08 vs his night ERA which sits at 5.08. This is simply a young kid starting to figure it out. His pre All-Star game ERA was 7.04 vs his post All star game ERA which sits at 1.50.
His counterpart today, Dylan "I like to call him Ted" Bundy has some intriguing stats despite his impressive 3.33 ERA. He struggle in DAY games owning a 4.94 ERA and owns a 7.36 ERA vs the Yanks in his career. Albeit a small sample size, the yankees have a combined .462 batting average vs him.
This is simply a great line with a tremendous amount of value!
Yanks ML (-108) *5 BIG BAGS OF STICKY SMELLY MUDDY SWAMP MONEY
The Dodgers have lost 2 in a row and coming off a tough one to swallow last night as they lost 6-4 in extras. However, I expect them to get this one back as they look to even up the series with the Cubs. This is a big game for the dodgers as it could be the only game they could win with Lester going tomorrow.
Hammer's continues to be the ageless wonder. Despite his 13-6 record and his 3.07 ERA this guy is a career 4.36; .500 pitcher with a terrible 1.34 WHIP. He has had the benefit of some serious luck lately. The guy continues to walk batters and some how finds his way out of big time jams. But he hasn't exactly faced offensive juggernauts lately. His last 8 games have been v COL, MIL, LAA, MIA, CWS, TEX, ATL, MIL. COL/TEX are banged up so even those are suspect opponents. Nonetheless the man has continued to pitch well and collect OUTS. It should be noted his away v home ERA is COMPLETELY NIGHT AND DAY! At Home he is a comfortable and cool 1.79 ERA but on the road things get a little screwy as he holds a 4.41 ERA. Another angle in play here is his day/night split. At night, Hammel's is a solid 9-3 with a 2.94 ERA v Day games where he holds a 4-3 record with a 3.27 ERA.
In addition to the above, today's play is simply a COME BACK TO EARTH play. The Cubs are 9-2 their last 11 and demolishing everyone and everything in sight. Can they keep it up? Certainly, but this game stinks of a return to mean for this team. Public percentages currently favor the Cubs 71% on ML and 83% on spread and guess what? This industry wasn't built giving money away. My system has this game favoring the dodgers by 59.2% which allows us to extract a very nice line value here with the short juice.
Lagniappe: Dodgers rookie Urias was absolutely lit up when he faced the Cubs earlier in the season. The wide eye, deer in the headlights rookie took the mound at Wrigley and was hammered to a tune of 6 runs in 5 innings. He has since regrouped and started learning how to get MLB hitters out. Look for him to get a little revenge today and put his team in prime position to win this game. Contrary to his counterpart today Urias thrives at home, and in day games. 3.24 @ home v 4.50 on road ERA and 3.06 in day games v 4.25 in night games. Again, giving a nod to his current form this guy has shown a great maturation process to date. And none of that is more evident than looking at his pre-all star v post all star ERA/record.
Pre All star: 1-2; 4.95 ERA
Post All-star: 3-0 2.18
This game simply means more to this young pitcher and this stubborn Dodgers team.
Dodgers ML (-121) 5* BIG CRAB TRAPS FULL OF SLIMY STANK CAJUN DOLLARS
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Pick: Dodgers ML (-121)
The Dodgers have lost 2 in a row and coming off a tough one to swallow last night as they lost 6-4 in extras. However, I expect them to get this one back as they look to even up the series with the Cubs. This is a big game for the dodgers as it could be the only game they could win with Lester going tomorrow.
Hammer's continues to be the ageless wonder. Despite his 13-6 record and his 3.07 ERA this guy is a career 4.36; .500 pitcher with a terrible 1.34 WHIP. He has had the benefit of some serious luck lately. The guy continues to walk batters and some how finds his way out of big time jams. But he hasn't exactly faced offensive juggernauts lately. His last 8 games have been v COL, MIL, LAA, MIA, CWS, TEX, ATL, MIL. COL/TEX are banged up so even those are suspect opponents. Nonetheless the man has continued to pitch well and collect OUTS. It should be noted his away v home ERA is COMPLETELY NIGHT AND DAY! At Home he is a comfortable and cool 1.79 ERA but on the road things get a little screwy as he holds a 4.41 ERA. Another angle in play here is his day/night split. At night, Hammel's is a solid 9-3 with a 2.94 ERA v Day games where he holds a 4-3 record with a 3.27 ERA.
In addition to the above, today's play is simply a COME BACK TO EARTH play. The Cubs are 9-2 their last 11 and demolishing everyone and everything in sight. Can they keep it up? Certainly, but this game stinks of a return to mean for this team. Public percentages currently favor the Cubs 71% on ML and 83% on spread and guess what? This industry wasn't built giving money away. My system has this game favoring the dodgers by 59.2% which allows us to extract a very nice line value here with the short juice.
Lagniappe: Dodgers rookie Urias was absolutely lit up when he faced the Cubs earlier in the season. The wide eye, deer in the headlights rookie took the mound at Wrigley and was hammered to a tune of 6 runs in 5 innings. He has since regrouped and started learning how to get MLB hitters out. Look for him to get a little revenge today and put his team in prime position to win this game. Contrary to his counterpart today Urias thrives at home, and in day games. 3.24 @ home v 4.50 on road ERA and 3.06 in day games v 4.25 in night games. Again, giving a nod to his current form this guy has shown a great maturation process to date. And none of that is more evident than looking at his pre-all star v post all star ERA/record.
Pre All star: 1-2; 4.95 ERA
Post All-star: 3-0 2.18
This game simply means more to this young pitcher and this stubborn Dodgers team.
Dodgers ML (-121) 5* BIG CRAB TRAPS FULL OF SLIMY STANK CAJUN DOLLARS
Look no further than the Mets tonight when it comes to mismatches. The Mets come into tonight winners of 5 of 6 and clawing their way back into wildcard discussion. They look to have turned a corner and seem to be playing their best baseball of their roller coaster season. They hand the ball to their ACE tonight, Thor. This owns an impressive 2.56 ERA in night games and 2.60 ERA in home games this year. In the last 2 seasons one team he has found a ton of success vs is tonights opponent the Phillies. Thor is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA vs them. Phillies come into this game losers of 3 of 4 and 6 of 9.
This is less about tonight's pitching matchup as I do expect Hellickson to throw a decent game, and more about the Mets simply being the hotter team with statistical advantage in every facet of this game. One huge disadvantage that can't be underestimated is the loss of Carlos Ruiz. As an clubhouse guy and simply an experienced catcher/hitter in the lineup.
I look for the Mets the pounce all over the opportunity to gain some more ground on the wild card vs the demoralized young Phillies squad.
I don't love the chalk butty system has this at 82% win probability for the Mets and that's a HUGE number. Teams that have been over 77.4% this year are 113-19 (+75U). Sure its high risk low reward but that's the name of the game sometimes when searching for value in a card packed with CHALKY PROPOSITIONS!
Mets ML (-200) 6* CRAWFISH POTS FULL OF HOT SPICEY BOILING DOLLA BILLS
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Pick: Mets ML (-200)
Look no further than the Mets tonight when it comes to mismatches. The Mets come into tonight winners of 5 of 6 and clawing their way back into wildcard discussion. They look to have turned a corner and seem to be playing their best baseball of their roller coaster season. They hand the ball to their ACE tonight, Thor. This owns an impressive 2.56 ERA in night games and 2.60 ERA in home games this year. In the last 2 seasons one team he has found a ton of success vs is tonights opponent the Phillies. Thor is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA vs them. Phillies come into this game losers of 3 of 4 and 6 of 9.
This is less about tonight's pitching matchup as I do expect Hellickson to throw a decent game, and more about the Mets simply being the hotter team with statistical advantage in every facet of this game. One huge disadvantage that can't be underestimated is the loss of Carlos Ruiz. As an clubhouse guy and simply an experienced catcher/hitter in the lineup.
I look for the Mets the pounce all over the opportunity to gain some more ground on the wild card vs the demoralized young Phillies squad.
I don't love the chalk butty system has this at 82% win probability for the Mets and that's a HUGE number. Teams that have been over 77.4% this year are 113-19 (+75U). Sure its high risk low reward but that's the name of the game sometimes when searching for value in a card packed with CHALKY PROPOSITIONS!
Mets ML (-200) 6* CRAWFISH POTS FULL OF HOT SPICEY BOILING DOLLA BILLS
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Good write-up
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