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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game 1
Pitchers
Kershaw vs. Miley
Before I begin analyzing this game I'm going to comment on the offseasons of these two teams. The Dodgers added Dan Haren, who will be a solid innings eater. They didn't do anything else, which is good because it allows for continuity among a team that was ridiculously hot down the stretch last year. Matt Kemp will have a bounce back this season.
The D-Backs were active, trading blue-chip young players like Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs essentially for Mark Reynolds II in Mark Trumbo and a decent closer in Addison Reed. Absolutely atrocious moves by this team. It wouldn't surprise me to see Arizona dead last in the NL West, especially with the injury to Tyler Corbin.
Now on to the game...
Kershaw vs. Miley
Obviously the Dodgers have a significant pitching advantage with Kershaw here. However, Wade Miley is a solid innings-eater for Arizona. In 3 starts vs. LAD last year, Miley put up a 3.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. In 3 starts vs. ARZ, Kershaw put up a 2.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. The Dodgers were 19-14 in Kershaw's starts last year, but only 0-3 in Kershaw starts vs. ARZ. The Snakes have played the Dodgers tough. The D-Backs won the season series 10-9 last year. In 2013, the D-Backs were 2-1 in Miley starts vs. LAD. Of course, these stats don't mean much in a new season, but there's still note-worthy. Miley has been pitching well this Spring, while Kershaw has struggled.
LINEUPS
Dodgers
1. Yasiel Puig RF (R) 2013 LHP: .340/.419/.583
2. Justin Turner 2B (R) 2013 LHP: .279/.309/.359
3. Hanley Ramirez SS (R) 2013 LHP: .349/.419/.723
4. Adrian Gonzalez 1B (L) 2013 LHP: .273/.315/.432
5. Scott Van Slyke LF (R) 2013 LHP: .234/.342/.422
6. Juan Uribe 3B (R) 2013 LHP: .242/.308/.474
7. Andre Ethier CF (L) 2013 LHP: .221/.275/.338
8. A.J. Ellis C (R) 2013 LHP: .200/.330/.341
9. Clayton Kershaw SP (L)
The Dodgers are without Kemp and Crawford for this series. Andre Ethier is atrocious vs. lefties so the loss of Kemp will be felt. Puig and Hanley will be depended upon to carry the offense in this game as they mash lefties. The good thing for LA is that only 3 of the 9 hitters are lefties.
Diamondbacks
1. A.J. Pollock CF (R) 2013 vs. LHP: .283/.332/.480
2. Aaron Hill 2B (R) 2013 vs. LHP: .321/.372/.538
3. Paul Goldschmidt 1B (R) 2013 vs. LHP .309/.382/.604
4. Martin Prado 3B (R) 2013 vs. LHP: .291/.379/.473
5. Mark Trumbo LF (R) 2013 vs. LHP: .265/.324/.599
6. Miguel Montero C (L) 2013 vs. LHP: .190/.254/.238
7. Chris Owings SS (R) 2013 vs. LHP: .125/.125/.125
8. Gerardo Parra RF (L) 2013 vs. LHP: .198/.276/.226
9. Wade Miley SP (L)
Like the Dodgers, the Snakes have 3 of 9 hitters that are left-handed. The difference is their hitters from 1 through 5 excel vs. southpaws. 6-9 struggle, but the first 5 definitely can rake here.
From all I've heard, this ballpark will play to the pitcher's advantage. I've read that it could have a Petco-like effect on flyballs.
I think that Arizona will struggle this year because of questionable starting pitching. I don't like the moves to dump Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs long-term. But they're still a scrappy bunch with a good lineup and a solid bullpen. The lineup that LA is putting out has some real struggles against left-handed pitching, aside from Hanley and Puig. On the flip side, the D-Backs can mash lefties 1 thru 5. LA seems like the type of cocky team that will sleep-walk through this Australia series. While Arizona strikes me as a team to come out hard and play scrappy baseball. There really isn't any value picking the Dodgers here. Kershaw will be Kershaw, and Spring stats can be taken with a grain of salt, but still, you never know. He has struggled this Spring. He's only human. On the other hand, Miley has been very good.
All the value is on Arizona here. One thing I'm going to do is avoid making cute plays this season, but the Dodgers were only 19-14 in Kershaw starts and Arizona plays them tough.
PLAY: Diamondbacks +162 (1 unit)
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