MLB Baseball : 07.04.2012

Happy 4th to everyone, hope it's an enjoyable (and profitable) day.  I've been somewhat MIA, mostly as I was away on vacation and had some struggles with the wi fi, but also seems my watch dog at work has deemed Covers to be an "inappropriate" site.  I'm working to try to get around that firewall. 

Washington Nationals EVEN (10 units to win 10)

Washington / San Francisco UNDER 7.5 (12 units to win 10.52)

Dating back to last year, Edwin Jackson has allowed less than 4 earned runs in 22 of his last 26 starts.  In his last outing, he got shelled for 8 earned runs @ Colorado.  He is not a normal regular on my bounce back list, but hard to ignore giving up 3 earned runs or less in 84% of his last 26 starts.  I'm a huge fan of Bumgarner (on my fantasy team) and I think he have a decent showing, but Giants come up short in my opinion.

Lots more 4th action coming up..

thanks fellas, happy 4th!

si1ly - love the numbers buddy, solid post.  Tough pill to swallow fading Bumgarner, but Nats at home Even money with someone who seemingly pitches well enough to win, I'll take a shot

Philadelphia Phillies -122 (20 units to win 16.39)

bunny, MIKE, switch - thanks fellas, good luck on the plays today and Happy 4th. 

I thought Bumgarner would get hit today, but wasn't expecting this.  Figured Jackson would yield 2 earned runs at most.  Way off on the under, still a chance for the Nats to come through.

Sizing up some heavy fireworks on a 4:05 EST play

nakadinhi - thanks buddy

Boston / Oakland OVER 8 (32 units to win 30.48)

Stepping out here on this total and while I admit these offenses can be downright brutal, I have to play the numbers.  In his career, Aaron Cook is 2-6 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in starts following ones where he went at least 6 IP and did not allow an earned run.  Why not the A's instead of the over? I don't trust AJ Griffin as far as I can throw, and with my bad back I shouldn't be throwing anyone.  Griffin also off a 0 ER performance, so I think the BoSox tee off on him today.

Well, was hoping to be rolling some coin from the BoSox-A's game, but that looks like a loss at the moment.  I'll likely be digging out of a 4th of July hole tonight

Colorado / Saint Louis UNDER 9 (10 units to win 9.52)

Saint Louis RL -105 (12 units to win 11.43)

Minnesota / Detroit UNDER 8 (20 units to win 19.05)