MLB Case in Point

Hello All,

So after much venting, I will share what I am looking at as the struggles with MLB just continue. I analyze every sport much in the same way obviously with statistical difference. 

Game Example:

STL/CHC

Wacha is below average in ERA giving up 5.35 runs away. He is below average in WHIP of 1.43. He is below average in K/9 tossing 6.85 K's. He gives up 2.19 HR's which is also below average in BABIP @.312. These are all Away Splits.

Mills is above average with an ERA giving up 3.42 runs. He is above average with a WHIP of 0.82. He is above average with a K/9 of 10.64. He gives up HR/9 0.82 which is above average and has an above average BABIP of .280.

So just on pitching alone, CHC gets the nod. Now I will get into the Batting.

STL is below average RBI @ 4.36, below average in OBP @ .321, and below average in R/9 @ 4.59.

CHC is above average in RBI @5.05, above average in OBP @ .332 and above average in R/9 @ 5.27.

CHC gets the nod in batting by a pretty significant margin.

From a Bullpen standpoint, STL and CHC are both ranked above average in bullpen quality.

So with ALL of that said, how in the world am I looking at a game with a score of 2-1 at the top of the ninth. STATISTICALLY CHC shouldn't be trailing. CHC should in fact be in the lead by at least 1 or 2 runs and this game should have been somewhat of a high scoring affair.

This is just part of a long laundry list of game outcomes in MLB all season long with a high percentage of losses. This is a very common occurrence in MLB.

If anyone picked STL or the O/U and took the UNDER, what was your motivation and can you back that pick by any sort of handicapping strategy? Please keep pick leeching and lucky guess or streak trends out of this conversation. I want handicappers to chime in with insight on what I could be missing.