MLB Mon Info

Play Against
Road teams (ARIZONA)
cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games

53-19 over the last 5 seasons.
73.6% (27.1 units)

35 

Play On
Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON)
after having won 3 of their last 4 games, playing on Monday

57-29 over the last 5 seasons.
66.3% (28.0 units)

The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Rangers have a 48.3% chance to win. The Rangers have won in 31, or 53.4%, of the 58 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year. The Astros went 2-4 over the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups. Dunkel's Pick: Texas (+107).

Rangers vs. Astros Game 7 MLB Betting Trends 

Astros have a +1 run differential 

Houston has lost all three games as a favorite 

Texas has averaged 4.7 runs a game 

Astros have averaged 4.8 runs a game by A.Rome

Game seven will be the twentieth matchup between these two this season. Expect a conservative approach. In the playoffs only moments of separation have been found. Runs come in streaks as some pitchers have seemed to get significant control. The total has gone over five times in the series. Game seven tightness will cause the game to bottle up or crack open. Bet the under. 

Rangers vs. Astros Game 7 Prediction: Under 10 

Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread

Game five total was the first of the series to go under

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread

Phillies total goes over 50-51-7 as a favorite 

Diamondbacks total goes over 37-43-6 as an underdog by A.Rome

Arizona’s pitching worries me after the way Philadelphia hit on Saturday. That momentum against going against a pitcher they have seen once and proven they can handle is dangerous. Anticipating a surge of early runs once more. Afterwards  home field should prey on the Diamonback’s inexperience. Bet the Phillies. 

Diamondbacks v. Phillies Game 6 Prediction: Philadelphia (-184) 

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Game 6 (Phillies lead, 3-2)
Kelly is 2-2, 2.35 in his last five starts.
Arizona is 17-15 in his starts.
Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
He is 1-1, 3.00 in two playoff starts.
He is 1-1, 2.75 in three starts vs Philly.

Arizona is 7-3 in the playoffs this year.
Diamondbacks are 45-42 on road.  
Under 4-2-1 last seven games
Diamondbacks are in playoffs for first time since 2017.
Lovullo’s playoff record: 8-6

Nola is 3-0, 1.44 in his last five starts.
Phillies won his last seven starts.
Over is 6-1-1 in his last eight starts.
He is 5-2, 3.25 in eight playoff starts.
He is 2-2, 7.67 in five starts vs Arizona.

Phillies won 16 of their last 22 games overall.
Philly is 55-32 at home.
Under is 3-2-1 in their last six games.
Phillies are in playoffs for second year in a row.
Before last year, last time they were in playoffs was 2011.
Thomson’s playoff record: 19-9

Phillies are 7-5 vs Arizona this season.
Home team is 4-1 in this series.

Texas @ Houston
Game 7 (series is 3-3)
Scherzer is 1-2, 4.97 in his last five starts.
He’s started one game since September 12th.
Rangers are 2-4 in his last six starts.
Over 3-0 last three starts
He is 7-8, 3.80 in 23 playoff starts.
He is 5-2, 3.84 in nine starts vs Houston.

Rangers are 8-3 so far in the playoffs, 7-0 on road.
Texas is 47-41 on road.
Ranger bullpen got eight outs in last night’s win.
Texas is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
Bochy won three World Series when he managed the Giants.
His postseason record: 52-36

Javier is 3-0, 1.08 in his last three starts.
Houston is 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
Over is 8-3-1 in his last 12 starts.
He is 6-1, 2.08 in 16 playoff games (4 starts).
He is 5-1, 3.84 in ten starts vs Texas.

Houston won 11 of its last 16 games (3-3 in this series).
Astros are 40-46 at home this season.
Five relievers got a combined 12 outs last night.
Astros won the World Series LY, lost WS in 2019, 2021.
Houston is in the playoffs for 7th year in a row.
Baker’s playoff record: 57-50

Astros are 12-7 vs Texas this season.
Road team is 6-0 in this series

appreciate this insight everyday, very helpful!

do u use sdql?

@lefty84hz

 NOPE

We have two teams that are equally good at hitting fastballs going against two big-time fastball pitchers. I don't really think there is anything separating the two offenses with their respective performances in this series, so for me this is all about which pitcher I like more.

I really think it's got to be Scherzer for me. I've been a card-carrying member of the Cristian Javier Fan Club for the better part of three seasons, and I really believe when he brings his best level he's one of the five best pitchers in baseball. The thing is, though, that we've rarely seen it since the start of the season and even his good starts have their warts.

As I laid out above, Javier's dominance is directly tied to his performance in the strikeout department, so I'm very fixated on Javier's three K's in Game 3. Texas hit a whopping 14 fly balls versus Javier, and with that many coming back into play in the bandbox known as Minute Maid Park, I find it hard to believe the Rangers don't hit at least two homers off of Javier.

Mix in his issues with walks that have persisted for months and you've got a blueprint here for Texas to chase the right-hander from this game early.

On the other side of the coin, Scherzer's issue in Game 3 wasn't really general ineffectiveness but an inability to put hitters away in two-strike counts. I'm betting on the fact that the two months off had a bit to do with that, considering hitters were at .146 off of Scherzer in two-strike counts this year with 174 strikeouts in 355 plate appearances.

He will get to face these Astros hitters a third and fourth time in this series, and he should have a better idea as to how to put these guys away given his track record as a strategist on the mound. BY K.Ducey

I'm willing to go down with a proven postseason pitcher and one who was just a few pitches away from a much better line in Game 3 as opposed to the highly-volatile Javier. While the righty has shut down some of the best hitters in the world — even in the postseason — I don't recognize the man we've seen for the last four months. TEX +110 ML

Sides and Totals for Monday, October 23

• Arizona Diamondbacks / Philadelphia Phillies, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -114)
• Houston Astros (-120, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -123)
• Texas Rangers / Houston Astros, Under 10 (-105, Risk 1u) at FanDuel (bet to 9, +100)

• Aaron Nola, Under 1.5 Walks (-135, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -145)
• Bryce Harper, Over 0.5 Walks (-130, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
• Merrill Kelly, Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-155, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to -175)
• Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -120)
• BY Zerillo
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