The implied probability of a win from the Diamondbacks, based on the moneyline, is 64.7% Arizona has a record of 3-1 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -183 on the moneyline. This season, Colorado has come away with a win one times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +152 or longer on the moneyline. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Colorado. The Rockies are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the National League. Dunkel's Pick: Arizona (-184).
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The implied probability of a win from the Diamondbacks, based on the moneyline, is 64.7% Arizona has a record of 3-1 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -183 on the moneyline. This season, Colorado has come away with a win one times in seven chances when named as an underdog of at least +152 or longer on the moneyline. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Colorado. The Rockies are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against an opponent in the National League. Dunkel's Pick: Arizona (-184).
Padres are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division
Cubs are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road
Padres are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games when playing as the favorite
Take the under. The under is 8-3 in the Cubs’ last 11 games against the Padres, are 6-2 in their last eight games when playing on the road versus San Diego and is 21-8 in their last 30 games when facing an opponent from the National League West. On the other side, the under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last six games overall, is 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent from the National League and is a perfect 5-0 in their last five games played in the month of April.
Cubs vs. Padres MLB Playoffs Prediction: UNDER 7.5
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Cubs are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
Padres are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games against an opponent in the National League Central Division
Cubs are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road
Padres are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games when playing as the favorite
Take the under. The under is 8-3 in the Cubs’ last 11 games against the Padres, are 6-2 in their last eight games when playing on the road versus San Diego and is 21-8 in their last 30 games when facing an opponent from the National League West. On the other side, the under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last six games overall, is 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent from the National League and is a perfect 5-0 in their last five games played in the month of April.
Cubs vs. Padres MLB Playoffs Prediction: UNDER 7.5
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston’s last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’ last 5 games
Over/Under has gone OVER in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Texas’ last 14 games against Houston by A.Rome
Take Texas. Despite winning last night, the Astros are still just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall, are 1-4 in their last five games against the Rangers and have dropped seven out of their last 10 games against the American League. On the other side, the Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall, are 21-9 in their last 30 games against an opponent from the American League and are 4-1 in their last five games against the rest of the American League West.
Astros vs. Rangers MLB Playoffs Prediction: TEXAS RANGERS +120
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The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston’s last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas’ last 5 games
Over/Under has gone OVER in 7 of Houston’s last 10 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Texas’ last 14 games against Houston by A.Rome
Take Texas. Despite winning last night, the Astros are still just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall, are 1-4 in their last five games against the Rangers and have dropped seven out of their last 10 games against the American League. On the other side, the Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 games overall, are 21-9 in their last 30 games against an opponent from the American League and are 4-1 in their last five games against the rest of the American League West.
Astros vs. Rangers MLB Playoffs Prediction: TEXAS RANGERS +120
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 14 of St. Louis’ last 20 games against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis’ last 11 games against an opponent in the National League East Divisionby A.Rome
Take Philadelphia. The Phillies are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the Cardinals, which includes a mark of 4-1 in their last five games versus St. Louis. They’ll also face Miles Mikolas, who pitched well in his last outing against San Diego, but was lit up like a Christmas tree by the Dodgers in his first start. The Phillies don’t own the same firepower as the Dodgers, but their lineup is stacked nonetheless. They should be able to T-off on Mikolas tonight at Busch Stadium.
Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Playoffs Prediction: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -106
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The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 14 of St. Louis’ last 20 games against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis’ last 11 games against an opponent in the National League East Divisionby A.Rome
Take Philadelphia. The Phillies are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the Cardinals, which includes a mark of 4-1 in their last five games versus St. Louis. They’ll also face Miles Mikolas, who pitched well in his last outing against San Diego, but was lit up like a Christmas tree by the Dodgers in his first start. The Phillies don’t own the same firepower as the Dodgers, but their lineup is stacked nonetheless. They should be able to T-off on Mikolas tonight at Busch Stadium.
Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Playoffs Prediction: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -106
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers’ last 11 games
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers’ last 5 games against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games at home by A.Rome
Take Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, are 12-1 in their last 13 games against the Twins and are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games at Target Field. On the other side, the Twins are just 1-4 in their last five games overall, are 2-5 in their last seven home games and have won just once against the Dodgers in their last six home games versus L.A.
Dodgers vs. Twins MLB Playoffs Prediction: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -152
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The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Dodgers’ last 11 games
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers’ last 5 games against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota’s last 7 games at home by A.Rome
Take Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 5-2 in their last seven games overall, are 12-1 in their last 13 games against the Twins and are a perfect 5-0 in their last five games at Target Field. On the other side, the Twins are just 1-4 in their last five games overall, are 2-5 in their last seven home games and have won just once against the Dodgers in their last six home games versus L.A.
Dodgers vs. Twins MLB Playoffs Prediction: LOS ANGELES DODGERS -152
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Seattle’s last 12 games on the road
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto’s last 18 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games played in April
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto’s last 7 games against an opponent in the American League West Division by A.Rome
Take Seattle. The Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the Blue Jays, who are just 4-10 in their last 14 games overall. They’re also just 1-7 in their last eight games against an opponent from the American League West and are 1-4 in their last five home games when playing on a Monday.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays MLB Playoffs Prediction: SEATTLE MARINERS +100
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The total has gone OVER in 9 of Seattle’s last 12 games on the road
Over/Under has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto’s last 18 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle’s last 7 games played in April
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto’s last 7 games against an opponent in the American League West Division by A.Rome
Take Seattle. The Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 games against the Blue Jays, who are just 4-10 in their last 14 games overall. They’re also just 1-7 in their last eight games against an opponent from the American League West and are 1-4 in their last five home games when playing on a Monday.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays MLB Playoffs Prediction: SEATTLE MARINERS +100
This is just one of those plays where I want to buy low on Miami. Are the Marlins any good?
Maybe not after their 1-9 start in 2024, but I don't see how there is any value in backing New York at this big of a price with left-hander Nestor Cortes taking the mound. Cortes has gotten off to a terrible start this season, posting a 0-1 record with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%. These struggles are likely to continue against Miami, a team he allowed seven earned runs against in their lone career meeting.
Again, the Marlins are not very good, but that is why we are catching this generous price of +140. Speaking of that line, +140 at Caesars is a particularly good price considering that it is four-to-10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
This is just one of those plays where I want to buy low on Miami. Are the Marlins any good?
Maybe not after their 1-9 start in 2024, but I don't see how there is any value in backing New York at this big of a price with left-hander Nestor Cortes taking the mound. Cortes has gotten off to a terrible start this season, posting a 0-1 record with a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through his first two starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit%. These struggles are likely to continue against Miami, a team he allowed seven earned runs against in their lone career meeting.
Again, the Marlins are not very good, but that is why we are catching this generous price of +140. Speaking of that line, +140 at Caesars is a particularly good price considering that it is four-to-10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
The Brewers are rolling into Cincinnati after an impressive series against the Seattle Mariners. Tonight, they send left-hander Aaron Ashby to the mound for his first start of the season against Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft.
There is a lot to love about the Brewers in this spot, and they seem to be flying under the radar at the moment. Ashby missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, but put up some solid strikeout numbers through 2021-2022.
Ashby averaged nearly 11 Ks/9 during that stretch, and now gets to face a Reds team that is currently dead last in strikeout rate. I would be all over his strikeout prop if there was more clarity about his pitch count for the evening.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are hitting .327 in 55 at bats as a team against Ashcraft, which includes a ridiculous 5-for-8 from Catcher William Contreras. Things can not get much better for Contreras tonight, as he draws an incredible matchup after a 4-5 5 RBI performance on Sunday afternoon.
The Reds offense will wake up eventually, but I do not like the state of their lineup at the moment. They are striking out far too much and now draw a tough left-hander with a lot of punchout ability.
I love the Brewers to take care of business in Game 1 of this four-game series, and I would suggest sprinkling the run line at +150 as well.
The Brewers are rolling into Cincinnati after an impressive series against the Seattle Mariners. Tonight, they send left-hander Aaron Ashby to the mound for his first start of the season against Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft.
There is a lot to love about the Brewers in this spot, and they seem to be flying under the radar at the moment. Ashby missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury, but put up some solid strikeout numbers through 2021-2022.
Ashby averaged nearly 11 Ks/9 during that stretch, and now gets to face a Reds team that is currently dead last in strikeout rate. I would be all over his strikeout prop if there was more clarity about his pitch count for the evening.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are hitting .327 in 55 at bats as a team against Ashcraft, which includes a ridiculous 5-for-8 from Catcher William Contreras. Things can not get much better for Contreras tonight, as he draws an incredible matchup after a 4-5 5 RBI performance on Sunday afternoon.
The Reds offense will wake up eventually, but I do not like the state of their lineup at the moment. They are striking out far too much and now draw a tough left-hander with a lot of punchout ability.
I love the Brewers to take care of business in Game 1 of this four-game series, and I would suggest sprinkling the run line at +150 as well.
Tyler Anderson has had a nice start to his 2024 campaign with the Los Angeles Angels, but this team will not be able to keep racking up wins in the American League West. The Tampa Bay Rays should also be turning it around soon.
Zach Eflin is the correct starting pitcher on the mound for the Rays to get that winning streak moving. Eflin was electric in 2023 with a 50.4% groundball rate and 3.02 xERA. Even though he allowed six earned runs against the Blue Jays in game one, he bounced back to his 2023 form to hold the Texas Rangers to only one run over 6 1/3 innings pitched.
Yes, the sample size is small, but the Angels only hold a 73 wRC+ off of righties this season. In 2023, this team was at 100 wRC+. Bear in mind, Shohei Ohtani was in the lineup in that season, obviously.
The Rays crushed lefties in 2023 at a 120 wRC+. This lineup still contains the same players who helped make that happen. Yandy Díaz, Harold Ramírez, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes all hammered lefty pitching. Since Anderson did not keep the ball on the ground last year, the Rays could be hitting for power in this matchup.
Finally, as usual, there are plenty of reliable arms for Tampa Bay, when Eflin exits. This should provide another edge to the Rays over the Angels.
Tyler Anderson has had a nice start to his 2024 campaign with the Los Angeles Angels, but this team will not be able to keep racking up wins in the American League West. The Tampa Bay Rays should also be turning it around soon.
Zach Eflin is the correct starting pitcher on the mound for the Rays to get that winning streak moving. Eflin was electric in 2023 with a 50.4% groundball rate and 3.02 xERA. Even though he allowed six earned runs against the Blue Jays in game one, he bounced back to his 2023 form to hold the Texas Rangers to only one run over 6 1/3 innings pitched.
Yes, the sample size is small, but the Angels only hold a 73 wRC+ off of righties this season. In 2023, this team was at 100 wRC+. Bear in mind, Shohei Ohtani was in the lineup in that season, obviously.
The Rays crushed lefties in 2023 at a 120 wRC+. This lineup still contains the same players who helped make that happen. Yandy Díaz, Harold Ramírez, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes all hammered lefty pitching. Since Anderson did not keep the ball on the ground last year, the Rays could be hitting for power in this matchup.
Finally, as usual, there are plenty of reliable arms for Tampa Bay, when Eflin exits. This should provide another edge to the Rays over the Angels.
This line has been set at 4.5 in each of the first two games of the season. In his first start he went over this total by fanning five batters against Houston while only striking out two against Arizona.
Looking at just these results, it’s a bit perplexing why this line is set at 6.5, albeit at heavy minus odds.
It’s not just the results from this season that bring questions to this number. Cortes went over 6.5 strikeouts four out of 12 starts last year.
Last season Cortes had a Stuff+ rating of 104, which was around average. This season his figure is only 92, which shows that he hasn’t exactly had the best stuff to start the year.
The Marlins rank 19th in strikeout rate this season. I believe that this line for Cortes is inflated due to the amount that the Marlins swing and miss. They rank 6th in whiff% this season and worst in chase rate, which has led to these increased strikeouts.
Cortes likely isn’t the pitcher to take advantage of this as he throws his pitches mostly in the strike zone. Since the start of last season, out of 234 qualifying pitchers, Cortes ranks 38th in Zone%.
From this subset of pitchers, Cortes ranks eighth in In Zone Contact%, meaning not only is he often around the strike zone, but contact is made on almost all of these (91.2%) that are swung at.
Cortes’ game is based more on allowing weak contact than striking out batters. While this Marlins’ matchup looks like it could be promising for him on the surface, it appears to me that Miami will have ample opportunities to put balls in play.
I project Cortes for an average of 4.6 strikeouts today so I like taking the under here even at these current odds.
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This line has been set at 4.5 in each of the first two games of the season. In his first start he went over this total by fanning five batters against Houston while only striking out two against Arizona.
Looking at just these results, it’s a bit perplexing why this line is set at 6.5, albeit at heavy minus odds.
It’s not just the results from this season that bring questions to this number. Cortes went over 6.5 strikeouts four out of 12 starts last year.
Last season Cortes had a Stuff+ rating of 104, which was around average. This season his figure is only 92, which shows that he hasn’t exactly had the best stuff to start the year.
The Marlins rank 19th in strikeout rate this season. I believe that this line for Cortes is inflated due to the amount that the Marlins swing and miss. They rank 6th in whiff% this season and worst in chase rate, which has led to these increased strikeouts.
Cortes likely isn’t the pitcher to take advantage of this as he throws his pitches mostly in the strike zone. Since the start of last season, out of 234 qualifying pitchers, Cortes ranks 38th in Zone%.
From this subset of pitchers, Cortes ranks eighth in In Zone Contact%, meaning not only is he often around the strike zone, but contact is made on almost all of these (91.2%) that are swung at.
Cortes’ game is based more on allowing weak contact than striking out batters. While this Marlins’ matchup looks like it could be promising for him on the surface, it appears to me that Miami will have ample opportunities to put balls in play.
I project Cortes for an average of 4.6 strikeouts today so I like taking the under here even at these current odds.
Maybe I'm naive, but there seems to be a narrative in the media that Cortes is a good MLB pitcher. With all due respect, I don't see it.
Over his past 24 starts, he possesses a 4.01 ERA. He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in 15 of those 24 outings, which is why I want to fade his strikeout prop against Miami on Monday.
Yes, the Marlins have struggled, which is why we are catching this prop at plus-money. However, the one thing that this lineup has done well is avoid the punchout. UN 5.5 KS
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Maybe I'm naive, but there seems to be a narrative in the media that Cortes is a good MLB pitcher. With all due respect, I don't see it.
Over his past 24 starts, he possesses a 4.01 ERA. He has recorded five or fewer strikeouts in 15 of those 24 outings, which is why I want to fade his strikeout prop against Miami on Monday.
Yes, the Marlins have struggled, which is why we are catching this prop at plus-money. However, the one thing that this lineup has done well is avoid the punchout. UN 5.5 KS
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