MLB TODAY PLAYS (10/10)

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  8-4 ATS

Solid win for the Mets yesterday as they move on and beat the Phillies who once again head home from the playoffs having missed out on the WS.  It's really not fair for me to hate on them b/c they are quite good but I had a business partner who screwed me over for loads of $$$ and he loved the Phils.  So I take some small semblance of joy in his frustration (but not for anyone else from Philly).

Today there are two games and I like both.  To begin, the Guardians and Tigers are UNDER machines and in a game that is this tight with so much pressure I do not see either of these teams lighting up the scoreboard.  Both bullpens have been stellar and the Guardians are ever so short favorites, even on the road.  I personally believe they can win this game but the question is, will they?  

Reese Olson is 5-0 over his past 5 starts and threw a gem as he piggybacked off the opener in Game 1 vs. the Guardians, but he still has a 5 ERA over those past 5 starts, but really only bc of one start in mid September where he gave up 5 runs.  Tanner Bibee has gone 3-2 over his past 5 though he has a much lower ERA at 2.45.  I think both starters are locked in here and, if they get into trouble, the bullpens will spring into immediate action.

I think the Tigers know they have to win this game or return to Cleveland where the Guardians are superior.  Bibee's away ERA is 2.76 which is better than how he pitches at home where he has an ERA of 4.15.  Olson on the other hand missed most of the season but pitches to a MUCH better ERA during the day, where he has gone 2-3 with a 2.80 ERA.  I know that history has typically gone against the Guardians when they are in elimination games but my gut says that might change today.  My money though is backing both of these pitchers, the pressure, the shadows later in the day, and opting for a very low scoring affair:

UNDER 6.5 (CLEVELAND/DETROIT)

I have a play for the second game as well but I did want to add I see NRFI here though it's juiced way too high to post at -170.  I'm as miffed about Aaron Judge as he and the Yankee faithful are but I'm not super high on KC either.  I will be back shortly to post that angle and explanation but, for the moment, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Good luck LA

@LAGameofInches

 On it  too 

@LAGameofInches

Bol today 

@Brooklyncapper

Yeah just feel it's the right side.  I really think that Cleveland will win this game but in order for that to happen I feel like they need to limit Detroit and it's going to be hard to hit for the first half of the game given the pitchers and the time of day.  If Cleveland does win I will probably go heavy agasint them in Game 7.  Not sure they can avoid elimination two games in a row when they have traditionally not won in those situational spots.  Plus Skubal will be taking matters into his own hands...

No game 7, I believe.

@poolboy

We shall see...But I'm just hopeful for an under.  For the later game...

I can't stop thinking about the same thing most have been talking about this series, which is how inept Aaron Judge has been in his playoff time.  In fact, I heard a stat yesterday- before the game so it's now even worse- that Aaron Judge was a whopping 23 for 112 with 2 strikes against him.  And this is one of the best hitters in MLB.  He is well aware of how terrible he is in the postseason and is perhaps even reaching or in his own head, which doesn't help any.  Tonight he is going against Michael Wacha, who is 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 regular-season outings (nine starts) vs. the Yankees.  In 2024, Wacha has done exceptionally well at home (7-3, 2.89 ERA) and even better in night starts (11-3, 3.27 ERA).  

He will be opposed by a playoff tested Gerrit Cole, who just lost to the Royals his last time out, but who has splits of 5-3 with a 2.49 ERA on the road and 6-3 with a 3.24 ERA at night.  He is also Cole is 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA against the Royals.  Those are some really good numbers but I think it's the Yankees offense that scares me the most..and not in a good way.  When you take Aaron Judge out of the equation, they are just a different team.  I do think they can win the game here as they will have extra motivation but with the numbers both pitchers have both in this ballpark and at night, I see an under here more clearly.

UNDER 8 (NYY/KC)

Hoping everyone is having a really solid playoff run.  Going to have to sweat this one out as well...As always, tail or fade, good luck to all.