YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 14-9 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 1-0 ATS)
Great series, as I have repeated I have a future on the Dodgers at (+300) which I placed before the playoffs. Would be great to be able to tack that onto the record. But tonight I am firmly behind a BIG PLAY that could produce two units for the record and I have little reason to believe it will not cash.
I'm not super impressed by the Yankees and haven't been for most of the year. What was impressive to me was Aaron Judge, and when he played how lethal he was and how locked in he could get. But when he was missing from the lineup, the Yankees were at best mediocre.
Well, he's not only IN the lineup, but also missing from the lineup. He's become an easy out these days and while I know I have cited this in previous posts, it's a reason the Yankees offense has been kept in check. But tonight, they will have the advantage as they play before a home crowd in a game which should see a good amount of runs.
Clarke Schmidt was really good this year when healthy, but only returned at the end of the season and I don't think he has his best stuff of yet. He will be facing a Dodgers lineup that is destined to win the World Series and boasts their own MVP in Shohei Ohtani, whose shoulder I do not believe will be troubling him. Add do that Mookie Betts who has had a solid series and the newly en Fuego Freddie Freeman, and you have some trouble brewing.
In fact, Schmidt has not let up less than 2 ER's in any of his recent 5 starts and if you add in what Walker Buehler has done, outside of last game, you should see the scoreboard light up. The bullpens on the other hand have been very very good, well especially that of the Dodgers.
Yankee Stadium has a short porch and I think both Freeman and Ohtani will be licking their chops for the next few nights. I don't think that Walker Buehler will be able to stay composed and blank the Yankees and I certainly don't think the Dodgers score less than 3 in the first 5 innings. With a total low enough and also interestingly not juiced, I am all over:
OVER 4.5 FH (LAD/NYY)...BIG PLAY!!!
Obviously I'm also hoping for a Dodgers win and getting plus money it's hard not to take it, but I can also see the Yankees getting right a bit off of Walker Buehler. If Buehler brings his A game, I still think this goes over due to the lineups. But Aaron Judge better find some way of adjusting himself or else it's going to be a very quick series for the Yankees. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all....
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