Play On
Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI)
cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games
58-40 over the last 5 seasons.
59.2% (19.1 units)
Play On
Any team (CINCINNATI) GM 2
with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (NL), playing on Tuesday
65-42 over the last 5 seasons.
60.7% (32.9 units)
Play On
All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (LA DODGERS)
with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL)
96-30 since 1997.
76.2% (43.1 units)
Play Against
Home teams (SEATTLE)
AL team with a low slugging percentage (<=.410) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), with a slugging percentage of .500 or better over their last 3 games
116-77 over the last 5 seasons.
60.1% (38.1 units)
The Houston Astros do several things well, and batting is one of them. With a .246 batting average, the Astros rank 13th in the league.
They have an on-base percentage of .320, ranking eighth overall, and a slugging percentage of .419. This is a team that can go far with the right schedule. Currently, the right schedule includes facing teams like the Detroit Tigers.
Getting the start on the mound tonight is Hunter Brown, who has a 1-0 record. Brown is pretty green, having only pitched six innings, so there isn’t much to go on.
However, with the batting lineup behind him, he has a lot of pressure taken off. Still, a green pitcher on the mound could spell trouble for the Astros. They might have to pull him early if things get out of hand.
Coming in as +190 underdogs, the Detroit Tigers might pull off an upset. They have a favorable matchup in Hunter Brown, who is on the mound for the Astros.
The thing is, they have to capitalize on it. If they can’t, the Tigers will fall to a 54-88 record and stay at the bottom of the AL Central. So, how can they take advantage of Brown being on the mound for Houston?
This starts with getting runners on base, which they’ve done before. Not long ago, the Tigers earned a 10-2 win over the Kansas City Royals. If they can take what they did in that game and apply it here, they’ll be set.
As a team, the Tigers have a batting average of .230, which isn’t great, but they do have Javier Baez. Baez has 12 home runs with 55 RBIs this season.
We know that several bettors will take the Houston Astros tonight. However, we’re going to go out of the box and take the Detroit Tigers at +190. The Tigers have proven they can win tough games, and they have the advantage on the mound.
Getting the start for the Tigers today is Drew Hutchison, who has pitched 86 innings this year. With an ERA of 4.08, Hutchinson can lead the Tigers to a win at home tonight. It might sound like a long shot, but we like the Tigers at home to pull off the upset.
DunkelIndex Free Pick: Detroit Tigers +190, UNDER
Prop Picks
Houston (+110) UNDER 4.5 Runs
Detroit is allowing 4.47 runs per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 20 in MLB. That average decreases slightly to 4.42 runs per 9 innings at home. Scores have gone UNDER in 10 of the Tigers’ last 16 home games.
With Dunkel predicting a Detroit win by the score of 4-3, take the Astros (+110) to finish UNDER their Vegas team total of 4.5 runs against the Tigers.
Hunter Brown (+110) UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Detroit is averaging 7.62 hits per 9 innings on offense, which ranks No. 27 in MLB. Houston is allowing 6.96 hits per 9 innings on defense, which ranks No. 2 in MLB. That average remains relatively steady at 7.06 hits per 9 innings on the road.
With Dunkel predicting the final score staying UNDER the Vegas run total, take Brown (+100) to finish UNDER 4.5 hits allowed versus the Tigers.
While backing Kelly has been a relatively reliable bet this season, he has not been able to solve the Dodgers’ offense this season, which absolutely kills the Diamondbacks’ value in this matchup.
The Dodgers are heavy favorites for a reason, therefore their runline should be the play Tuesday night. It remained steadily around -115 for -1.5, and that lack of movement is favorable considering it keeps the runline at a relatively nice value.
The Diamondbacks are a tough bunch and have been playing well lately, but the Dodgers have an overwhelming edge in every facet of this matchup.
Play the Dodgers runline to -150 or better. BY J.Posner
Pick: Dodgers RL -115
The Angels do have a bit more power, most notably with Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, who have a .355+ xwOBA along with Matt Thaiss. Taylor Ward and Mike Ford are above the .325 mark, so this at least makes up the majority of the lineup. This provides the Angels with a small advantage over the slap-hitting Guardians.
Cleveland has an elite bullpen with six members under a 4.00 xFIP. Emmanuel Clase is one of the best closers in the game, so Los Angeles will have to score off of Morris or perhaps middle relievers to find opportunities for baserunners.
Los Angeles does have the better and more proven pitcher on the hill as Morris still has not displayed much control on an MLB mound. The Angels don’t walk much, but they have a few batters who can work walks. Suarez needs to get deep into this game to negate the effects of the Los Angeles bullpen. If he can do so, expect the Angels to win a tight one. Take them from +130 to +100. by D.J James
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +130 | play to +100
From a Houstonian. Hunter Brown is a complete stud pitching in his hometown tonight. The kid actually has a freaking 96mph slider which is insane. He is mentored by his hero Verlander. He was very comfortable on the Mound in his first start and has no pressure while he is just filling in until Verlander comes back. I look for him to be on tonight but good luck.
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