Play Against
Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MIAMI)
with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start
55-41 since 1997.
57.3% (35.1 units)
Play Against
Road teams (LA DODGERS)
below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a terrible starting pitcher (ERA>=6.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing
46-24 since 1997.
65.7% (27.5 units)
Play On
Road teams (KANSAS CITY)
with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games
42-25 over the last 5 seasons.
62.7% (27.1 units)
Play Against
Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MIAMI)
with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start
55-41 since 1997.
57.3% (35.1 units)
Based on this matchup's moneyline, the Blue Jays' implied win probability is 55.6%. The Blue Jays have won 56.2% of the games this season when they were the moneyline favorite (45-35). Cleveland has won in 20, or 40%, of the 50 contests it has been named as odds-on underdogs in this year. This season, the Guardians have come away with a win 14 times in 38 chances when named as an underdog of at least +105 or longer on the moneyline. Dunkel's Pick: Toronto (-125).
Astros vs. Orioles MLB Betting Trends
Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games A.Rome
Astros vs. Orioles MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Valdez is 9-7 with a 3.07 ERA and is coming off throwing a no-hitter against the Guardians last Tuesday. He finished with seven strikeouts and a walk, needing just 93 pitches to complete the 2-0 win and throw the 16th no-hitter in Astros history. He also owns a 3.68 ERA against the Orioles in three appearances, including two starts, spanning 14 2/3 innings. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is 2-3 with a 6.09 ERA and allowed three runs on two hits with six strikeouts and two walks in a 4-1 loss against the Blue Jays in his last start. Give me the Astros.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: HOUSTON ASTROS -130
Cardinals vs. Rays MLB Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis A.Rome
Cardinals vs. Rays MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Mikolas is 6-7 with a 4.29 ERA and is 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in two career starts against the Rays. In 14 innings, the veteran has yielded four home runs so he has stunk. Eflin, meanwhile, is 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA and is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA in three starts (18 1/3 innings) against the Cardinals. He’s 10-2 with a 2.60 at home this season, although in his last start at Tropicana Field, he allowed five runs in four innings in a loss to the Marlins on July 26. Nevertheless, I’m paying the price for the Rays tonight.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY RAYS -175
ubs vs. Mets MLB Betting Trends
Chi Cubs is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Mets
Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games A.Rome
Cubs vs. Mets MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Taillon is 6-6 with a 5.36 ERA and earned the win last Thursday, allowing two runs over five innings in the Cubs’ 5-3 victory over the Reds. He’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. On the other side, Carrasco is 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA and took another loss last Thursday when he surrendered six runs over six innings as the Mets fell to the Royals, 9-2. He’s 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs but he has stunk all season. Give me Chicago.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: CHICAGO CUBS -142
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home A.Rome
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Urias is 8-6 with a 4.69 ERA and has excelled against Arizona during his career, posting an 8-1 record with a 1.55 ERA in 12 career appearances (nine starts). He defeated the Diamondbacks on Opening Day of this year, allowing two runs and four hits over six innings. Pfaadt, meanwhile, is 0-5 with a 7.11 ERA this season, although he was great in his last outing when he allowed one run (a home run) and two hits over seven innings in a 1-0 loss to the Giants. He struck out a season-high seven and walked one. Despite Urias’ success against the Diamondbacks and Pfaadt’s success in his last outing, both pitchers have stunk this year. Give me the over.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: DODGERS/ANGELS OVER 9
San Francisco is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing San Francisco A.Rome
Giants vs. Angels MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Giolito has made two starts for the Angels and both went poorly. He gave up nine runs on eight hits – three of them home runs – while walking three in 3 2/3 innings of a 12-5 loss to the Braves last Wednesday. He’s now 6-8 with a 4.36 ERA on the year and he’s 1-1 with 3.18 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. Alexander, meanwhile, is 6-1 with a 3.21 ERA on Tuesday in even career relief appearances against the Angels and is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a save. I’m going to bank on Giolito’s struggles continuing and I’m going to take the Giants.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -115
NY Yankees is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Chi White Sox is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees A.Rome
Yankees vs. White Sox MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Schmidt is 0-1 with a 3.12 ERA in two appearances (one start) against the White Sox. He lost to the Sox on June 6 at Yankee Stadium after allowing three runs and six hits in six innings. He’s also won three of his past four starts overall. Toussaint, meanwhile, is 1-4 with a 3.92 ERA and just struck out a season-high nine during Thursday’s 5-3 loss at the Rangers but also struggled with his command. He allowed four runs and five hits, which includes two home runs while walking four in 5 1/3. He’s 0-1 with a 5.00 ERA in two career appearances against the Yankees. I don’t trust either offense – give me the under.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: YANKEES/WHITE SOX UNDER 9
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games A.Rome
Blue Jays vs. Guardians MLB BETTING PREDICTION
Kikuchi is 9-3 with a 3.67 ERA and beat the Orioles in his most recent start, limiting Baltimore to one run and six hits in six innings of a 4-1 victory on Wednesday. He’s made three starts in his career against the Guardians and has posted a 1.80 ERA in those three outings. On the other side, Bibee is 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA and won his final two starts of July while pitching well in his first outing in August, as well. He allowed two runs on seven hits over five innings against the Astros last Wednesday. Give me the under tonight in what should be a solid pitching matchup.
MLB BETTING PREDICTION: BLUE JAYS/GUARDIANS UNDER 8
Right-hander Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight and should be a good candidate to back in this matchup. Through 21 starts this season, Eflin is 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Not only are those surface-level stats strong, but his underlying metrics also suggest that regression is unlikely. Currently, the right-hander ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Meanwhile, right-hander Miles Mikolas takes the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals. It has been a tough campaign for the veteran pitcher, who is 6-7 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.29 WHIP through 24 starts.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, ranking in the 28th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Not only will the Rays boast the pitching advantage, but they also feature the better lineup. This season, Tampa ranks higher than St. Louis in runs scored per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
If you do not want to lay the juice on the moneyline, it is not the worst idea to take Tampa -1.5 considering that 12 of its past 13 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. by R.Santori
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
