MLB Tuesday Info

LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees’ last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Take Los Angeles. Stick a fork in the Yankees because they’re done. I backed them in Game 1 when they choked away a victory and decided to back them in the first five innings of Game 2 when they were routed. Last night, I went with a Shohei Ohtani prop, which did not hit, so I’m much like the Yankees in this series: o’fer.

That said, I don’t see how they climb back into this one. They had the starting pitching advantage at the start of the series but that hasn’t mattered. Their bullpen sucks and their offense has dried up. Aaron Judge picked a bad time to have his bat go cold. They’re finished. Give me the plus odds with the underdog Dodgers.

Dodgers vs. Yankees MLB Playoffs Prediction: LOS ANGELES DODGERS +125

The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 58.3%. The Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home. New York is 5-1 SU in Luis Gil's last 6 starts. Dunkel's Pick: NY Yankees (-147).

The implied probability of a win from the Yankees, based on the moneyline, is 58.3%. The Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home. New York is 5-1 SU in Luis Gil's last 6 starts. Dunkel's Pick: NY Yankees (-147).

Great info but give me the Dodgers tonight for the sweep 

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-nil irrespective of site order (Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 402-5 (.988)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 67-1 (.985)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 39-1 (.975)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 24-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 255-152 (.627)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 50-18 (.735)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 31-9 (.775)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 21-3 (.875)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1582 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-nil @ HHV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-nil with site order HHV (Dodgers) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2024 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 299-4 (.987)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 46-0 (1.000)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 22-1 (.957)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 16-0 (1.000)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 185-118 (.611)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 32-14 (.696)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 16-7 (.696)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 14-2 (.875)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1582 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2024 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

After Game 3: The Los Angeles Dodgers visited and defeated the New York Yankees 4-runs-2 to take a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 1583 lead of 3-games-nil. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a series record of 2-0 and a Game 4 record of 1-1. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 3-games-nil, the New York Yankees have a series record of 0-5 and a Game 4 record of 0-5. The five series and Game 4 losses by the New York Yankees in the wake of a 3-games-nil deficit in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series occurred in series 15 to the old New York Giants in the 1922 MLB Finals, in series 158 to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1963 MLB Finals, in series 321 to the Cincinnati Reds in the 1976 MLB Finals, in series 1185 to the Detroit Tigers in the 2012 MLB Semifinals, and in series 1515 to the Houston Astros in the 2022 MLB Semifinals.

Zerillo's MLB Predictions & World Series Picks for Tuesday, October 29

• Luis Gil, Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +110)
• Under 9.5 (-122, 1u) at FanDuel (bet to 8.5, -110)
• Over 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at Caesars (pass unless you also have Under 9.5)
<