Football Jesus LV
Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks Over 6
Maddux Sports
Jacksonville St -20
Scott Rickenbach
3% play Phillies-105
4% play Dodgers/ Padres Over 8
Sports Guy
New Mexico State +20
Bruce Marshall
Edmonton Oilers -1' (+146)
NY Mets (-102)
Matt Severence
MLB Detroit +1.5 -179
NHL Montreal +1.5 -154
Jimmy Adams
4% Dodgers/Padres o8 -110
The moneyline set for this matchup implies the Tigers have a 51.9% chance of walking away with the win. The Tigers have won in 48, or 49.5%, of the 97 contests they have been named as odds-on underdogs this year. The Tigers are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the American League Central Division. Dunkel's Pick: Detroit (-108)
The Tigers had a September xFIP of 3.72 in relief; they had a 6.1% walk rate and a strikeout rate of 21.9%. Tyler Holton has been used as an opener quite frequently and he could see some action in this one.
The lefty has a 2.19 ERA and 2.75 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 87 mph and he has an excellent Hard-Hit Rate, ground-ball rate, barrel rate and walk rate.
Assuming Holton opens, Detroit could go any number of ways. Manager A.J. Hinch could go to Jackson Jobe, though he might not want to after Jobe's awful appearance in the Wild Card Series. The rest of this bullpen, however, has been nearly lockdown. They may not produce many strikeouts, but they limit free passes.
At the dish, the Tigers had a 107 wRC+, 9.8% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate against righties in September. They have several bats on the playoff roster who have an xwOBA above .320.
Given that the Tigers have been better at the plate, they should have an edge both at home and against a starter in Cobb who is due for a little negative regression.
Cobb is decent and can keep the ball on the ground, but the Tigers could have the antidote for that with a fly-ball heavy approach.
I'm betting the Tigers in Game 3 from -104 to -125.
It's now or never for the Phillies and I think they have a pretty big starting pitching edge in Game 4.
Sure, if we are going by how each starter pitched down the stretch, then this would be a pretty even game, but Suarez is clearly the better pitcher over a large sample size.
The Phillies offense should have a much better matchup against Quintana than they did against Manaea. Not only are they the second-best team in baseball against sinkers and fastballs, but against those two pitches, when they are 91 mph or slower, the Phillies have a .406 xwOBA and 25 barrels, the most in baseball.
The Phillies bullpen has blown up in three straight games in this series, which is very uncharacteristic and something I don't think will continue. Sure, the Mets offense is on fire, but a top-five bullpen will eventually figure it out.
I think the Phillies are a little undervalued in Game 4 because of that starting pitching edge. I have Philadelphia projected at -132, so I like the value on them at -115.
This has been a very stagnant market. The opening moneyline of -120 for the Yankees moved to -115 quickly and has stayed there for most of the last 36 hours. The same is true for the total and spread.
For all that market conviction and stability, I have the Yankees priced much differently in this game and I'm happy to go down with the ship if I'm incorrect. This Yankees squad suffers consistently at home, I've seen it myself as a fan in attendance this season, and the numbers do not lie, either. The positive walk and home run environment of Yankee Stadium (16% and 24% higher than MLB average this season, respectively), with lessened hit rates (6% lower on both singles and doubles) creates a place where the benefit of the Yankees hitting prowess is effectively negated by the heightened ability of visiting teams to score.
Kauffman is the opposite, -17% on home runs and but +4% on singles and +23% for doubles, which make it the best doubles park in the MLB. The muscle of Judge and Soto surely won't be impacted by the factors that lessened home run rates if they catch a ball cleanly, but the added help on base hits for the rest of the Yankees roster can not be understated. Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo, specifically, become different players away from Yankee Stadium — they add an average of 9 wRC+ points to their split when they leave The Bronx. That's notable difference from your second level contributors.
It should be noted, too, that Seth Lugo felt the impact of pitching at Kauffman this season. 7-6 with 44 runs in 17 starts at home, 9-3 with 31 runs in 16 starts away. This is a home field disadvantage type scenario and the needle has moved the wrong way with the Yankees on the road. They should be priced closer to -135 by my calculations. In my opinion, the money line is the best way to ensure the edge gets home – as the team doesn't care the score as long as they win, especially in the playoffs. N.Y. ML
Zerillo's MLB Predictions & Picks for Wednesday, October 9
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