Money Ball 4.09.2015

Question

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102099805

The above link will show prior history and 2015 wagering format.

4.05 L $200 Cubs -108 (Lester) vs Cardinals (action)

4.06 L $200 Phillies +104 vs Red Sox (Bucholz), 0-2, -$400

4.07 W $200 Braves +127 (Wood/Latos) 1-2, -$146

4.08

$200 W Royals -113 (Quintana/Duffy) +176.99

$200 I W ndians 9 inn RL +140 (Carrasco/Feldman) +280

$200 W Angels +116 (Shoemaker/Iwakuma) +232, 4-2, +542.99 (45.3% RoR)

4.09 Phillies +124 (Masterson/Buchanan)

I believe both the Red Sox and Masterson to be vastly overvalued by Joe Six Pack and the best money to be made is to against them in basically toss up games where they are laying juice for no discernable reason. Masterson was a big disappointment to the Indians last year (8-17 qs) and showed little in ST to make me believe he will be any better this year. No matter how much you love a big bopper offense most of your probability lies with the guy you handed the ball. Buchanan was mildly impressive last year and had a much better ST than did Masterson, so, with a 43 cent advantage in line value I have no problem taking a flyer on him.

BOL

KeyElement · Answer

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102099805

The above link will show prior history and 2015 wagering format.

4.05 L $200 Cubs -108 (Lester) vs Cardinals (action)

4.06 L $200 Phillies +104 vs Red Sox (Bucholz), 0-2, -$400

4.07 W $200 Braves +127 (Wood/Latos) 1-2, -$146

4.08

$200 W Royals -113 (Quintana/Duffy) +176.99

$200 I W ndians 9 inn RL +140 (Carrasco/Feldman) +280

$200 W Angels +116 (Shoemaker/Iwakuma) +232, 4-2, +542.99 (45.3% RoR)

4.09 Phillies +124 (Masterson/Buchanan)

I believe both the Red Sox and Masterson to be vastly overvalued by Joe Six Pack and the best money to be made is to against them in basically toss up games where they are laying juice for no discernable reason. Masterson was a big disappointment to the Indians last year (8-17 qs) and showed little in ST to make me believe he will be any better this year. No matter how much you love a big bopper offense most of your probability lies with the guy you handed the ball. Buchanan was mildly impressive last year and had a much better ST than did Masterson, so, with a 43 cent advantage in line value I have no problem taking a flyer on him.

BOL

greengrocer · Answer

nice day yesterday

mjm1012 · Answer

GL

BirdsOnBat · Answer

I agree w/ your thoughts on this game. Masterson was awful last year. It started with an injury and then his mechanics were a mess. Control was gone and he was very hittable. Cardinals fans are still wincing.

Teaser78 · Answer

KeyYour  thoughts on the Royals/Wsox game?Danks?Thanks you in advance

jackal4422 · Answer

gl key ,

mbiddy · Answer

GL today Key...nice day yesterday

KeyElement · Answer

I would LUV to play the Royals today but I fear last year was smoke and mirrors for Volquez. I had high hopes for him in San Diego, in a true pitchers park, and he is with another pitchers park team, but his performance in San Diego was pathetic. Danks is a mess and I made money going against him last year, BUT; my ST numbers on him are slightly better than his numbers from last years results and are superior to Volquez ST numbers. Just too many what ifs? to suit me. Like I said, I love the Royals and think they should win today, but I have to see more of Volquez before laying juice with him

Doolittle · Answer

Nice call on KC yesterday. They handled Quintana better than I thought they would. Well done.I completely agree with your thoughts on Masterson.

tinfoils · Answer

Never thought of the Masterson/toss up angle you presented. Good luck Key!

tonydan · Answer

nice day yesterday Key  Appreciate your insights and posts, good luck this season

snake2710 · Answer

BOL Bud

TRAIN69 · Answer

Any thoughts on fading the Yanks today?Sweet day yesterday

bullmoose · Answer

good luck tnite

JEG53 · Answer

Is that it for today Mr Key?

KeyElement · Answer

I am tempted to fade Sabathia but the line swung moved a ton while I was out (sorry about that) and now I see no real value. I think I would also like to get a feel for if Norris and Sabathia&#x27;s ST numbers really indicate what they are going to do. Norris at the &#x2B;130 opener was a good value, but -130 is a whole different game. A line swing of 54 cents usually indicates an anti-public play is called for. Too confusing, I will pass, and as I said sorry I have been out all day and didn&#x27;t see this earlier.Yes, JEG, that is it for today. BOL

Money Ball 4.09.2015

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