5-03
$200 Twins -118 (Danks/Pelfrey) W
$200 Diamondbacks +134 (C. Anderson/B. Anderson) L
YTD 26-22, +$1,246.00, (13% RoR)
5-04
$214 Marlins +147 (Phelps/Zimmermann)
$214 Padres +125 (Ross/Bumgarner)
$107 Parlay +174 Dodgers (Kershaw/Lohse) + Mariners (Hernandez/Shoemaker)
BOL
Marlins: It is all coming together now for the Marlins. 9-2 their last 11 and 6-2 their last 8 versus righty. The Nationals counter with a tough righty in Zimmermann, but he is not invulnerable and winning these days is tough for any Nats pitcher considering how lousy their offense is performing.
Padres: The betting world is still following Bumgarner like it was still last October but it isn’t. His performance to date is not any better than Ross and the Padres are a far better lefty hitting team at 6-2, with losses only to Kershaw and Keuchel, than the Giants are against righty at 6-11 and producing only 2.4 offensive earned runs per 9 innings.
Parlay: This is a real rarity for me but at one time or another almost everything comes to pass. Although both games are at very high odds on the straight money line, I would actually line them at Kershaw -320 and Hernandez at -210. The combination of probable win percentages gives me a possible 59% probability of winning not one, but both, games. Certainly a +174 dog is worthy of play at that probability-possibility, but because there are two separate games involved and the true parlay probability is only 25% I will risk only a half normal amount on this play.
Note: A few days ago I said I would probably adjust the standard wager based on the track record established in April, or four weeks into the season. That is reflected today and I will probably adjust the risk amount weekly or monthly throughout the season as justified.
Hot Forum Topics
