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Money Ball 5-14-2015

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Posts: 18
 
Hall of Fame
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Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 23140
Posted: #1

5-13

$214 Twins +131 (Nolasco/Lobstein) W

$214 White Sox +103 (Quintana/Nelson) W

$214 Padres +111 (Shields/Walker) W

YTD 36-30, + $1,975.35 (14.8% RoR)

5-14

$214 Twins +164 (Pelfrey/Sanchez)

BOL

Twins: The best line I see at the moment on Sanchez is -168. If you can tell me how a slumping pitcher and offense stand a better than 62.7% chance of winning this particular game, PLEASE, let me know how you figured that. It would do a lot of guys a lot of good to remember you are not betting the final standings, you are betting on who is the “better team” on this one given day. Hotter pitcher + hotter offense = better team.

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
Legend
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Posted: #2
Best of Luck today 
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
 
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Posted: #3
Polar opposites on this play, may the best team win.
Nice hits yesterday 

 
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Posted: #4
PLEASE let me know how you think they don't? Your perception of value makes you make too many bad bets key. When buying a house it's about location, location, location. When betting mlb it's about situation, situation, situation. Pelfrey threw a gem vs them a couple weeks ago. How often is a bum pitcher going to throw a good game vs a good team twice Ina row. Almost never. Pelfrey ha insane reverse splits vs an all righty team that just got embarrassed from Ricky nolasco. Classic spot of tigers not doing anything for a week and then exploding for 8+. Bloodbath today is imminent no matter how ugly the tiger lineup looks assuming vmart and jmart are out. In this specific situation today, I'd say the tigers would win 80-90% of the time long term. Of course this exact situation will never arise again so talking about the twins needing to win only 38% of the time in this spot is just silly and a terrible way to bet
 
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Posted: #5

blah blah blah Trice. The dude is up $2000.

Anyone trying to guage the variables of betting baseball with a bunch of anlysis is fooling themself only.

Its the most random sport to bet on and being in a rythym is more important than anylysis which only causes analysis in this sport.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
I've got a system play on the Tigers today but I'm not overly confident on it. I agree that there's some good value on the twins at that price.

But hey, gotta stick to the system when it went 34-5 last year right?
 
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Posted: #7
nice yesterday....bol today key
 
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Posted: #8
GL today Key
 
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Posted: #9
That's what I like to see.  Was hoping to see San Diego on your card.  Good luck, Key.



 
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Posted: #10
 
Legend
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Posted: #11
 
Legend
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Posted: #12
Best of luck today buddy..
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:

blah blah blah Trice. The dude is up $2000.

Anyone trying to guage the variables of betting baseball with a bunch of anlysis is fooling themself only.

Its the most random sport to bet on and being in a rythym is more important than anylysis which only causes analysis in this sport.

 

I kinda want to hear more about what Trice thinks on here

Also, let me know if anyone is able to decipher this guy's last sentence. Curious to know the language of origin.

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Triceratops:

PLEASE let me know how yo think they don't? Your perception of value makes you make too many bad bets key. When buying a house it's about location, location, location. When betting mlb it's about situation, situation, situation. Pelfrey threw a gem vs them a couple weeks ago. How often is a bum pitcher going to throw a good game vs a good team twice Ina row. Almost never. Pelfrey ha insane reverse splits vs an all righty team that just got embarrassed from Ricky nolasco. Classic spot of tigers not doing anything for a week and then exploding for 8+. Bloodbath today is imminent no matter how ugly the tiger lineup looks assuming vmart and jmart are out. In this specific situation today, I'd say the tigers would win 80-90% of the time long term. Of course this exact situation will never arise again so talking about the twins needing to win only 38% of the time in this spot is just silly and a terrible way to bet



Hmmm
 
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Posted: #15
GL Keys. 
 
Veteran
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Posted: #16
We loose the first pick my friend
What do u like next
I like b
My blue jays over
Still waiting for your pick
 
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Posted: #17
Nice try with the Twins.. worth a shot at that price.  especially after a 3-0 day. Good Luck on your next plays 
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #18
Hard luck today bud, get back on that horse tomorrow
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