NLCS GAME 2

I have been posting FOR the Dbacks in separate threads and have made a good little fortune.  One of the ways I have done it is to stick to what I believe is right, in a mind which is often wrong (like almost every human), but having a spine to stick with it and discuss why.

Tonight is the perfect example as I have drafted in a few other threads. Merrill Kelly is in many ways better than Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola is in almost all ways worse than Zac Wheeler.  Kelly missed over a month of the season or else he'd probably have picked up a few more wins.  Coincidentally, though there really is no coincidence, that was when the Dbacks were having their rough stretch.  Sure, the bats weren't hitting but they were missing one of their top arms, and I expect him to be really great tonight too.

Last night I said I was playing the OVER as both teams could hit and that total was alarmingly low.  Tonight, I'm not sure I would do the same.  The idea in these playoff series' is that you win at home and, with home field advantage, win the series.  So the Dbacks are NOT supposed to win, a spot I really like them in.  The SERIES odds are AZ +320...after ONE game, in Philadelphia.  I see this series being knotted up after tonight and, if that does happen, those series odds will be greatly different heading into AZ.  

CONSIDER THIS:  Kelly is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies. Nola is 2-2 with a 7.67 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks.  These are NOT my numbers, you don't think the Diamondbacks can again get to Nola?  Maybe Game 1 was rife with nerves, Gallen wasn't feeling great, but the Diamondbacks kept fighting and almost were able to come back.  The Phillies, after a torrid first few innings, were silenced the rest of the game so momentum is nil I feel (though the game ending DP was the catalyst imo).

Again, from a value standpoint, not sure how you can take the Phils.  Wheeler is NOT throwing tonight, and Nola has had issues every time he's faced AZ.  Big game, but I'm taking the pitcher who's flying under the radar and hasn't given up a run in the postseason.  Don't get me wrong, I know how powerful the Phillies lineup is, but I just have a feeling we will not be witnessing two series which are 2-0.

As always, keep comments positive, tail or fade, good luck to all....

@LAGameofInches

I am with you. I am on Arizona -0.5 first five +195, +140 for the game an -1.5 +220 for the game. Also played Corbin Carroll to hit a home run at +550 odds plus my 25% profit boost the effective odds are +635 and Ketel Marie to hit a home run +460 odds plus my 25% profit boost the effect odds are +575. Hope we are both right. BOL!

@LAGameofInches

LFG, agree with this 

Will the MLB have one postseason series that’s competitive? That’s the question. I am backing dbacks small. 

@jesron1269

Damn I love those odds on HR for Carroll or Marte.  I'll go down firing on those it's inevitable with a high lifetime ERA against the Dbacks that Nola gives up at least 1 long ball.  With those odds great value...thanks for sharing.

I always fine your writeups informative. You bring value to this board.

Thanks and good luck tonight.

Should read Ketel Marte but auto correct made it Ketel Marie. I hope we sweep tonight. 

I am with you. Rattlers ml +147

Something to think about is that on a big stage Kelly might fold? His stats at World classic not good earlier this year!

AGREED

Perhaps he might fold, so then might every pitcher.  But it won't be b/c of the WBC...I doubt he's thought back once to that tournament.  Anyways, a few short hours will tell

I don’t trust Nola enough to back him tonight but I do believe the bats can bail him out if he gives up a few runs. I’m not playing tonight but its philly or nothing for me. I believe they win the series 4-2. BOL tonight 

Merrill Kelly didn’t crack against the first batter he faced like Zac Gallen did. He cracked against the second batter.

I wish Arizona hurry up score some points.  i hate that i fall asleep and wake up 8th inning and score is like 3-1 fark, but why

Arizona could come back but they are up against the 1 team that has

bigger Magic then them going back to last year. Not over yet tonight

Meanwhile Nola looks like prime Randy Johnson tonight. Never fails when I’m on the opposite side. He’s slaying these bums one after another after another. Ground our, strike our, pop out. Wash, rinse, repeat. Choking quitters 

Theyre soiling themselves at the plate. They’re not scoring a single run tonight.

Ump should take his towel out and wave it with the rest of the fans. What amemba strike zone did nola get blessed with?? 

This game (and series) felt over with before Game 2 began. The home run tally in this NLCS is now 6-1.

@pointspreadking

 Philly has won every home game by multiple runs. Zona was tough to 

back tonight

Bators instincts were right, he detected Phillies invincibility factor from the Miami series and they're not letting up.  maybe Pfaadt can slavage 1 game but the series is over

There is a perfect example of how ALL the numbers in the world can back one team but numbers do not factor in Heart and Resilience. Reminds me of Brandon Staley who goes by the analytics instead of the moment. The moment last night screamed Take The Phillies!!!!!

Phillies will sweep. They have been an ATM machine all postseason and they will continue to be.