In what on paper looks to be a slugfest, I like the Phillies at even money. While Kyle Kendrick is no jewel, Wellemeyer is even a worse bet, especially right now. Wellemeyer's stellar ERA and W-L records are all smoke and mirrors. He has been lucky. For one thing, his expected ERA is nearly 3 runs over his actual ERA. How's that? He's been the beneficiary of incredible hit and strand rates--percentages that are flat unsustainable. Secondly, note how his Ks have declined sharply over his last few starts. And finally, he's coming off sitting out a start due to a swollen elbow.
Sure, despite all that he can continue to pitch like Sandy Koufax. Uh-huh.
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In what on paper looks to be a slugfest, I like the Phillies at even money. While Kyle Kendrick is no jewel, Wellemeyer is even a worse bet, especially right now. Wellemeyer's stellar ERA and W-L records are all smoke and mirrors. He has been lucky. For one thing, his expected ERA is nearly 3 runs over his actual ERA. How's that? He's been the beneficiary of incredible hit and strand rates--percentages that are flat unsustainable. Secondly, note how his Ks have declined sharply over his last few starts. And finally, he's coming off sitting out a start due to a swollen elbow.
Sure, despite all that he can continue to pitch like Sandy Koufax. Uh-huh.
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Reds over Boston. I selected this game early when the Reds were -117, but no matter: Harang is a solid pitcher, year after year. There's absolutely no doubt the Sox can hit any pitcher at any given time. But when hitters haven't seen a pitcher or have seen little of him, advantage pitcher. The same can be said of the Reds' bats vs Masterson. Except Masterson isn't nearly the pitcher Harang is. (I'm assuming Dusty's smart enough to start Jay Bruce instead of Patterson....On second thought, I can't put anything past Dusty Baker. Then again, it's just one batter, right?)
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Reds over Boston. I selected this game early when the Reds were -117, but no matter: Harang is a solid pitcher, year after year. There's absolutely no doubt the Sox can hit any pitcher at any given time. But when hitters haven't seen a pitcher or have seen little of him, advantage pitcher. The same can be said of the Reds' bats vs Masterson. Except Masterson isn't nearly the pitcher Harang is. (I'm assuming Dusty's smart enough to start Jay Bruce instead of Patterson....On second thought, I can't put anything past Dusty Baker. Then again, it's just one batter, right?)
Good luck to you, nousername!
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Just a quick note about one late game tomorrow (Sat) in that beautiful City by the Bay. Currently the total on the A's (Harden) vs Giants (Cain) game is 7.5. I like the UNDER there, and I'd be surprised to see it that high tomorrow.
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Good luck to you, nousername!
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Just a quick note about one late game tomorrow (Sat) in that beautiful City by the Bay. Currently the total on the A's (Harden) vs Giants (Cain) game is 7.5. I like the UNDER there, and I'd be surprised to see it that high tomorrow.
Did y'all get the UNDER 7.5 last night for today's late Oak-SF game? OK.
For the all of two people wondering how I "know" when a given pitcher will throw well or, conversely, terribly, the simple answer is I don't. I take guesses based on stats analysis, which does not include only surface stats such as ERA and W-L record, the former of which is worthless and the latter of which is useful only when considered together with hit%, strand%, etc.
Wellemeyer, in the most recent example, was clearly pitching well over his head while Harang was clearly due for a strong outing. I luckily nailed both yesterday as Wellemeyer threw batting practice for the Phillies as expected and Harang stymied the mighty Bosox lineup. (And yes, Jay Bruce was also a factor as he led off with a crucial homer. Good for Dusty for leaving him in.)
Of course not all pitchers with impressive ERAs are pitching out of their league--the underlying skills have to be studied. In other words, does a pitcher (or a batter, for that matter) display the underlying skills to support those surface stats?
As I noted in a write-up of why Joe Saunders would have a bad game (which he did), you can bet the primary oddsmakers employ baseball statisticians/analysts.
Good luck to all.
PP
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Did y'all get the UNDER 7.5 last night for today's late Oak-SF game? OK.
For the all of two people wondering how I "know" when a given pitcher will throw well or, conversely, terribly, the simple answer is I don't. I take guesses based on stats analysis, which does not include only surface stats such as ERA and W-L record, the former of which is worthless and the latter of which is useful only when considered together with hit%, strand%, etc.
Wellemeyer, in the most recent example, was clearly pitching well over his head while Harang was clearly due for a strong outing. I luckily nailed both yesterday as Wellemeyer threw batting practice for the Phillies as expected and Harang stymied the mighty Bosox lineup. (And yes, Jay Bruce was also a factor as he led off with a crucial homer. Good for Dusty for leaving him in.)
Of course not all pitchers with impressive ERAs are pitching out of their league--the underlying skills have to be studied. In other words, does a pitcher (or a batter, for that matter) display the underlying skills to support those surface stats?
As I noted in a write-up of why Joe Saunders would have a bad game (which he did), you can bet the primary oddsmakers employ baseball statisticians/analysts.
Good luck to all.
PP
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