Philly (Hamels) at Cincy (Cueto)

Question

Current odds: Philly &#x2B;125 Cincy -1.45 Total: 6.5U-15Cueto: at Home vs all opponents since 2011 is 19-7 with an ERA of 1.99Hamels: is 9-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.874.His team&#x27;s record is 12-0 (&#x2B;12.0 units) in these starts.This year, against all opponents, Hamels has 8 starts and Philly is 1-7 in his starts.Philly has lost 6 straight games, 5 straight on the road. They are batting .207 in their last 7 games, .229 vs RHP this year, .250 on the road this year.A few trends to take note of:Cueto 12-0 against moneyline in home games after loss last 3 seasons.Cincy 31-11 against moneyline in home games after a loss last 2 seasons.Hamels 14-27 against the moneyline in all games over the last 2 seasons.Wow! Am I making this matchup way too tough? Hamels has been scary good against Reds in his career, but Phillies offense has been so poopee! Isn&#x27;t a person supposed to take the home team off a loss with their ace on the mound, who is 12-0 at home after a loss vs an inept team? I believe so!Reds 7-0 this year as a home favorite of -1.25 to -1.75.My play: Cincinnati -1.45Thoughts very much welcomed!

LexingtonTim · Answer

Current odds: Philly &#x2B;125 Cincy -1.45 Total: 6.5U-15Cueto: at Home vs all opponents since 2011 is 19-7 with an ERA of 1.99Hamels: is 9-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.874.His team&#x27;s record is 12-0 (&#x2B;12.0 units) in these starts.This year, against all opponents, Hamels has 8 starts and Philly is 1-7 in his starts.Philly has lost 6 straight games, 5 straight on the road. They are batting .207 in their last 7 games, .229 vs RHP this year, .250 on the road this year.A few trends to take note of:Cueto 12-0 against moneyline in home games after loss last 3 seasons.Cincy 31-11 against moneyline in home games after a loss last 2 seasons.Hamels 14-27 against the moneyline in all games over the last 2 seasons.Wow! Am I making this matchup way too tough? Hamels has been scary good against Reds in his career, but Phillies offense has been so poopee! Isn&#x27;t a person supposed to take the home team off a loss with their ace on the mound, who is 12-0 at home after a loss vs an inept team? I believe so!Reds 7-0 this year as a home favorite of -1.25 to -1.75.My play: Cincinnati -1.45Thoughts very much welcomed!

MickSpeed17 · Answer

My 2 cents: Certainly can&#x27;t take philly, imo, LT, but won&#x27;t get value with ace cueto at home. Pass for me. ..

MojoGypson · Answer

Regardless if they win tonight- Phillies are always worth considering as  losers.

LexingtonTim · Answer

Mick- I fully understand. At present, not even die hard Philly followers have hope they will win.Mojo- True that!

tinfoils · Answer

Good luck Lex!

cjm2008 · Answer

It looks like the line has dropped some. To get Cueto under -150 is a good price.

LexingtonTim · Answer

tinfoils &amp; cjm2008- Thanks, Friends! I hope you all have a profitable weekend! I started a new topic with my weekend series picks. I would love to hear what you all have to say, if you have time. LexTim

MarloStanfield1 · Answer

Cueto and reds the play. Or nothing. Phillies are terrible.

Beningo88 · Answer

Cueto to the , Phils are terrible take my chances with the Reds weak bats

rogercw · Answer

good writeup..4 me don&#x27;t need any info...reds all day..and over..same amount..goodluck

moneymaker14 · Answer

Tough call.  Both teams struggling.   BOL.

MontrealExpos · Answer

It seems like an under to me.  Put the only option on my sports book. is 6.5.   yikes.   That looks like a coin flip.

hanzgruber · Answer

F5 under looks good to me

MontrealExpos · Answer

My data suggests that Phi@CIn will be over 6.5.

I just looked into it a bit deeper. These over and unders are stressful I tell you.

I am putting a feel bet of over. Because I feel like they will cover that. I am banking on the bullpen coming in. But Cueto is so amazing it;s almost a crime to bet over with this guy on the mound.

Over 6.5 it is. I have been on my game lately so let's see if the hot hand continues.

GLTE

ChalkHawk43 · Answer

Should be a close game but I lean Phillies in this game.Even though the Phillies  have been struggling as of late, Cincy has had a ton of trouble against left handed pitching all season, and I don&#x27;t expect that to change against Hamels. Add in the fact that as a team the Phil&#x27;s hit .300 against Cueto and you can see why I believe Hamels will end up 9-0 all time against CincinnatiBOL to you guys go Phillies

LexingtonTim · Answer

Marlo, Beningo, Roger, MOneymaker, &amp; Montreal- Thanks, friends! I hope we get paid off tonight. Definitely agree, we are playing for Cueto to shutout Phils. Reds hitters aren&#x27;t exactly crushing it, either. BOL! As weird as this might sound, I believe the play is this:Most hits in the 1st inning      Tie &#x2B;1.65Race to 3 runs                      Neither  &#x2B;3.00Philly F5       &#x2B;1/2  -1.20Cincy FG       -1.45Cincy to win by 1 run exactly    &#x2B;2.00Cincy to win by 2 runs exactly    &#x2B;5.50

RebelTell2 · Answer

I bet Philly. Purely a statistical play---big edge to phils,even if they are playing like little leaguers.BOL,RT2

KeyElement · Answer

Post #13 makes the most sense of all. The "team" of PhilsO &#x2B; RedsO is not in the same league as the team of Hamels-Cueto. The juice is high, for a darn good reason.BOL

LexingtonTim · Answer

hanzgruber- you aren&#x27;t willing to die the hard way? Ha! Thanks and BOL!Montreal- can&#x27;t blame you for sticking with over. ball flies out of GABP and these teams like to lite it up on Friday night.Chalk- BOL, buddy! Did you know Reds record vs LHP is 2012/32-18; 2013/27-25; 2014/5-9. Last 3 games vs LH starters Reds beat Kershaw and Miley, lost to Baumgarner.

LexingtonTim · Answer

Rebel- BOL! I won&#x27;t be pulling against you, but pulling for me! Ha!Key- Thanks and BOL! You are probably right! I can see it now...both coaches trying to decide whether to lift their starter in the 7th with a score of 1-1.

LexingtonTim · Answer

Aroldis Chapman (The Cuban Missile) last 4 games pitched in:4 innings 0 hits 0 runs 0 BB 8 K&#x27;s 12 batters faced!

SoundOfBrooklyn · Answer

anyone that think philly in this game is really just going with pure gut. there are no statistic and sabre metrics anywhere, anytime that will tell you phillies is the play here vs cueto at home.

so often as bettors we see a line that we think is too good to be true and we start thinking reverse psychology and stuff. baseball isnt like that. the other sports are. cueto at -140ish range is a great side win to be on.

Cinci all day. im on marlins now. goodluck to me now. goodluck to us later.

ChalkHawk43 · Answer

Lots of stats backed philly if anything Cueto would be the gut play

ChalkHawk43 · Answer

Phillies Cash and Hamels improved to 9-0 against the Reds with a sub 2 era

Philly (Hamels) at Cincy (Cueto)

Hot Forum Topics