Picks thread

Trying to create content for discussion collaboration etc. posting daily picks     on this thread. Each game that I’m betting I will provide my analysis. I rate 1-5% based on strength. 

mon. Aug. 12

will add more picks to this card first one here it is

Rating: 5% - New York Yankees ML (-320)

Put 5% (max bet) down on the Yankees today—this is a no-brainer for me. The run line should cash too but I personally always go with ml’s. The White Sox are so far out of contention and playing so poorly that calling it a struggle is an insult to the word. Meanwhile, the Yankees are in pretty good form and have been solid on the road. With Stanton back and Judge benefiting from extra protection in the lineup, the Yankees' offense is looking dangerous. Since adding Chisholm, the lineup seems more relaxed and less pressured. Gil looks to be reverting back to early season form, which is a great sign for the Yankees' pitching staff. White Sox starter Bush had a decent MLB debut against the A's but got almost no run support, which doesn’t bode well. The Rangers couldn’t get Judge or Soto out over the weekend, highlighting just how potent the Yankees' lineup has become. With the Yankees pushing hard for the AL East title, they can’t afford to drop games like this. Even with some bullpen shakiness, expect New York to just about be able to name the score. 

@snakebite44

The "Over", might be a good play for this game also, at a much cheaper price. 

4% - AZ D’Backs (-300)

Colorado’s been terrible on the road, hitting under .220 away from home. Arizona's been on fire during this homestand, coming off of multiple beat downs against the Phillies. Even if Ketel Marte is out of the lineup today, Arizona should be just fine. Pfaadt should handle the Rockies, and their bullpen is rested if needed. Colorado’s bullpen is a mess, which only makes things worse for them. With Arizona pushing hard for a playoff spot, it's worth laying the chalk here.

4% - SF Giants Team Total Under 3.5 (-150)

The Giants have been having a hard time scoring against top pitchers, and with Chris Sale on the mound and a strong Braves bullpen behind him, I don’t see them putting up many, if any runs tonight. Even though I wouldn’t argue with the full game under, with a 6.5 on the board, I think the better bet is on the Giants' team total under - if you can find a 3.5. Bottom line: the Giants don’t have power in their lineup, especially in these night games at home, where runs are very tough to come by. 

@lajohn

 Wouldn’t argue with it. Yankees pen taxed but asking the chi Sox to do anything positive offensively isn’t easy 

1% - Astros/Rays Under 7.5 (-125)

I'm comfortable placing a small bet on this. While Valdez isn’t my favorite, the Rays' can’t hit, and I have confidence that Bradley can manage to limit the Astros, who are a basically a one-man lineup. Given these factors, there could be several zeros put up for stretches of this game, in which I’m good with the under here. 

1% Minnesota Twins ML (-155)

 I’m also placing a small bet on this. There are a couple of factors I like that warrant a play on the Twins. Singer has not been sharp lately, and the Royals' home and road splits for hitting are significant enough to justify this bet. I trust Lopez, as he’s the better of the two pitchers, even if the traditional stats don’t show it, but the analytics do. I like the Twins' lineup at home and will say they have a slight edge on the mound, and I trust them enough here to get the win.

Overall 4-1 day. But 5% no sweat loser w/ Yankees smh. 

will keep posting daily on here! Feel free to comment w/ any picks/thoughts etc 

Tue. Aug. 13

Rating: 3% - Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-120)

The Dodgers are hitting their stride with Freeman and Mookie Betts back, looking more like the team we expected at the start of the season. Even though Gavin Stone has had some recent struggles, I still think he's the better pitcher in this matchup against Collin Rae. With the game in a hitter-friendly park and the Brewers missing their top hitter, Christian Yelich, their lineup isn’t as trustworthy. I’m confident the Dodgers will take this one, so I’m putting 3% on them.

Rating: 2% - New York Mets (-150)

The Mets are well-positioned to bounce back strongly today after a day off. The A’s have been competitive of late but I still am not scared of their lineup - and Stripling has shown a vulnerability to getting hit hard. I think that the Mets will capitalize on that early in the game with urgency. Meanwhile, Blackburn, facing his former team, has delivered solid performances since joining the Mets and should be able to provide at least five effective innings. Although NY struggled over the weekend against a top-tier Seattle pitching staff, this current price on the Mets looks cheap. Given their need to stay competitive in the playoff race, I believe the Mets will secure a win today and get back on track.

Rating: 1% - Cardinals vs Reds F5 Innings Under 4.5 (-115)

Taking unders in Cincinnati can be risky due to the ballpark's reputation, but this one seems justified. I trust both starting pitchers, Fedde and Greene, in this spot to warrant a small bet on the under 4.5 in the first 5 innings. Fedde’s sinker and especially his cutter, should effectively neutralize the Reds' offense, while Greene has been excellent, especially at home, and will face a Cardinals team in an offensive slump. Given these factors, the 4.5 line for the first five innings is reasonable enough for me.

Rating: 1% - Player Prop: Hunter Green Outs Recorded Over 17.5 (-190)

I only recommend this bet at 17.5.
I’m confident in Hunter Greene’s ability to get us through at least six innings, as he has consistently pitched deep into games recently. The Cardinals struggle against fastballs, and given Greene’s recent performances and the matchup, everything points to another strong outing for the Reds' ace.

 1% - Player Prop - George Kirby Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)

Taking a small wager on George Kirby to allow under 2.5 earned runs feels like a smart move. Although he struggled against the Tigers in Seattle last week, Kirby is a talented pitcher with the ability to rebound. The Tigers' offense has been weak this season, and while Kirby is typically stronger at home, he still performs well on the road. With the line at 2.5, I'm confident Kirby can limit the Tigers to fewer than three earned runs. This bet seems like a good opportunity, considering his potential to bounce back and deliver a strong outing.

parlaying these 2 player props …