Pineda bounce back nicely his last start shutting down the Phillies after getting torch in Detroit, looking for Marquis to shut down the lifeless Mariners bats
I hoping for anything under -150
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Seattle/Washington
Philadelphia/St.Louis
gotta looks at the numbers,
Pineda bounce back nicely his last start shutting down the Phillies after getting torch in Detroit, looking for Marquis to shut down the lifeless Mariners bats
Yes SCR has been hitting at an absurd rate the last few days... Mon/Tue it was 18-6 in favor of yes score and Wed 8-8... no scores are way overdue in my opinion.
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Yes SCR has been hitting at an absurd rate the last few days... Mon/Tue it was 18-6 in favor of yes score and Wed 8-8... no scores are way overdue in my opinion.
I really, really would hold off betting the NOs in those games unless you get a really favorable line. In fact, I would recommend never betting the NO due to how badly the books shade towards the NO.
Have you made your own line for these 2 games to compare against the books line to see if you're getting any value? If so, how did you go about making your line?
Would you believe me if I told you that so far this year through 1111 games, the YES is hitting at a 48.5% clip? And this is a down year so far. Historically, the YES hits anywhere between 50% and 53%.
Both of your games have an O/U of 7.5. Did you know that of the 229 games so far this year that have had an O/U of 7.5, 48.9% of them have hit YES? Making the true money line for the NO a -105. Betting the NO at anything higher than -105 for a 7.5 game makes your bet a negative expectation bet. Of course, you'll never find a book that will give you a -105 NO on a 7.5 game. However, you very well could find books that will offer you a +105 YES or better. And that would be a positive expectation play. Play those consistently and your books will start to despise you.
You will find that due to how the books shade their lines, that 99.9% of the time, the play is either YES or no play.
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I really, really would hold off betting the NOs in those games unless you get a really favorable line. In fact, I would recommend never betting the NO due to how badly the books shade towards the NO.
Have you made your own line for these 2 games to compare against the books line to see if you're getting any value? If so, how did you go about making your line?
Would you believe me if I told you that so far this year through 1111 games, the YES is hitting at a 48.5% clip? And this is a down year so far. Historically, the YES hits anywhere between 50% and 53%.
Both of your games have an O/U of 7.5. Did you know that of the 229 games so far this year that have had an O/U of 7.5, 48.9% of them have hit YES? Making the true money line for the NO a -105. Betting the NO at anything higher than -105 for a 7.5 game makes your bet a negative expectation bet. Of course, you'll never find a book that will give you a -105 NO on a 7.5 game. However, you very well could find books that will offer you a +105 YES or better. And that would be a positive expectation play. Play those consistently and your books will start to despise you.
You will find that due to how the books shade their lines, that 99.9% of the time, the play is either YES or no play.
I will say this. Two Sundays back I played four YES score in the first lines and hit them all. Game times were staggered so I got to play them all individually to see if each won before making the next wager. The one I didn't play yes score was betting the White Sox would score first instead. That game I believe the A's scored first and I would have won that too had I kept going with the YES bet. The lines on yes scores are hard to ignore, but I've hit on almost all my NO bets as well this year.
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I will say this. Two Sundays back I played four YES score in the first lines and hit them all. Game times were staggered so I got to play them all individually to see if each won before making the next wager. The one I didn't play yes score was betting the White Sox would score first instead. That game I believe the A's scored first and I would have won that too had I kept going with the YES bet. The lines on yes scores are hard to ignore, but I've hit on almost all my NO bets as well this year.
I would never bet every game either. Only the games where the books number allowed for an overlay or a positive expectation bet. I can only assume that when you created your lines on these 2 games, that you found an angle in each game that jumped your line from the regular true money line -105 to something higher than -145 to create your overlay. Otherwise, your -145 is a negative expectation bet of -8.0%, which is just brutal.
GL
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I would never bet every game either. Only the games where the books number allowed for an overlay or a positive expectation bet. I can only assume that when you created your lines on these 2 games, that you found an angle in each game that jumped your line from the regular true money line -105 to something higher than -145 to create your overlay. Otherwise, your -145 is a negative expectation bet of -8.0%, which is just brutal.
Like I said, the YES is hitting at a 48.5% clip this year in a down year. And the YES % is very highly correlated to the overall game total. In other words, the higher the O/U, the higher the true YES %. It sounds obvious but I am constantly baffled by how few people get it.
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Like I said, the YES is hitting at a 48.5% clip this year in a down year. And the YES % is very highly correlated to the overall game total. In other words, the higher the O/U, the higher the true YES %. It sounds obvious but I am constantly baffled by how few people get it.
Not trying to beat anyone up on this but with as much research, analysis and experience I have with this prop, I find it hard to stay silent sometimes when I see others make mistakes. I'd like nothing better than for people to destroy the books on this prop.
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Not trying to beat anyone up on this but with as much research, analysis and experience I have with this prop, I find it hard to stay silent sometimes when I see others make mistakes. I'd like nothing better than for people to destroy the books on this prop.
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