Powercore's MLB Handicapping Method

I would like to take this opportunity to share my new MLB handicapping method on covers.  I have been a member on this site for a while and like offer my contribution to this wonderful site.  Although, I enjoy a lot of the reading material and information, I unfortunately feel that this site is cluttered with to many people just posting picks(even though a lot of them a very good picks) and people backing their picks with some kind of one liner trend or stat.  I would like to see more how and why you are all making the plays you make and not just what your picks are if that is possible.  I will try to post any bets that I find until of the end of MLB season, and if anyone has any comments, questions, or criticisms please do not hesitate to post on this thread.

Okay now on the methodology, this is a parameter-based methodology where I use a point system to qualify if a team is worth betting on and for how much.  I use 5 parameters for each game which a team based on its advantage can gain or lose a 0, ½, or 1 point based on how strong their advantage is a given parameter.  The parameter of starting pitcher can earn up to 2 points since it is the strongest factor in the game.  I award team points based on my subjective judgement of teams stats and trends in the parameters and that is the tricky part.  It is ½ point for a decent edge, and a full point for a dominant edge and double that if it is in the starting pitcher parameter.  A team could get a max of 6 points.

My betting guidelines are as follows:

Favorites at -150 or more moneyline: play runline at 4-4 ½ points- 1 unit, 5+ - 2 units.

Favorites -105 to -149:  3-3 ½ points- 1 unit, 4- 4 ½ points- 2 units, 5+ points – 3 units.

Underdogs at -105 to any plus number: 2-3 points – 1 unit, 3 ½ or more points – 2 units.

My 5 parameters are as follows:

Starting Pitching (double-weighted)

Hitting

Bullpen

Situational

Zcode trending

Parameter Breakdown:

Starting Pitching: (2 points max)

This first thing I do when I analyze the starting pitching is go to www.dailybaseballdata.com and look at the pitcher vs batter matchups to see how they perform against specific batter and especially the lineups key batters.  Next, I go to www.yahoo.com and check of the pitchers splits such as their career record, ERA, WHIP, BAA versus their upcoming opponent.  Then, their current year splits for day/night and home/away splits.  Next, I check their current form by analyzing their recent game logs to get a general feel for what type of groove the pitcher is in and how deep into the games they typically pitch.  I compare the two dueling pitchers stats to see how much of an edge there is if there is any.  Newly brought up pitchers or pitchers with limited stats are generally rated at slightly below average unless they are a highly touted prospect with great stuff or dominant stats in the minors may get rated better.

Hitting:

The first and most important thing I look at in hitting handicapping is analyzing a lineups strengths and weaknesses and looking at how they matchup with the starting pitchers strengths and weaknesses.  I look at lineup’s power, speed, contact, and discipline and this can all be analyzed by looking at a teams BA, HR’s, OPS, K’s, BB’s, and SB’s.  Compare it to a pitcher’s HR/9, OPSA, BB/9, K/9, SB/9.  For example, you may have a strikeout pitcher like C. Archer facing a team that strikeouts a lot like the Astros and it will be a great matchup for the pitcher.   Another example, is a speed lineup like the Reds giving Jon Lester fits because he cannot hold a baserunner on.  Next, I look at teams home/away and day/night hitting splits such as BA, OPS, and Runs/G to get a general feel on how they will hit in a specific situation.  Also, as anyone around baseball knows hitting is very contagious or non-contagious so I look at each team hitting stats for the last 5 games to determine if they hot or not and it weighs significantly on my decision.

Bullpen Pitching:

The first thing to look is how deep the starting pitcher will go and how much of impact with the bullpen have.  If starting pitcher usually only a 4 or 5 inning guy the bullpen is a huge factor, but if the starting pitcher is an ace that typically goes 7+ then obviously the bullpen will factor very little. Then I look at the overall stats of the bullpen to general feel for how good the bullpen, I look at ERA, WHIP, K/BB ratios, BAA, and SV pct.  Also, I look the current state of the bullpen which is their key stats for team’s relievers last 3 games for confidence level, and how many days of rest each reliever has and especially the setup men and closers.  For example, you could have a team starting a pitching that will probably only make it to 6^th inning at best, and their bullpen is overall poor, pitching bad lately, and fatigued which could be a great best against opportunity.

Situational:

There are certain situations when teams are motivated to play hard then others because of the long-grueling 162 game schedule they must play.  Things I look for is did this team get swept last series against their upcoming opponent? Is this a rivalry game? How does this game factor into the team’s pennant race chances? Is the team on a small losing streak with their ace on the hill? Did the home team get shutout last home game? Are they trying to avoid a sweep? Do they need this game in order to have a successful road trip/home stand? Is this get away day for the road team at the end of a long trip?  Did this team play a 16 inning marathon last night going up against a team with a day of rest?  All of these, and anything else that has any sort of motivational logic will be factored into scoring of this parameter.  This one above anything else is the most subjective and based on feel.

Zcode Trending:

I go zcodesystem.com/mlb_oscillator/ as an invaluable asset for trending on the game.  I use the graphs on their team strength oscillator to see how the teams are trending.  The graph will tell me if team is surging, slumping, or staying steady.  Also, the graph will so any resistance or support points in which a team is approaching.  Then, I go to the zcode pitcher profit oscillator to see how profitable a starting pitcher is for the bettors and any graphing trends for that pitcher.  Finally, I check the line reversals to see which way the line is moving, underdog reverse line movements are typically a signal for a strong play.

Analysis

Cardinals -128

Martinez hasn’t been sharpest of late, but it still posting a very strong 6-2 and 2.35 ERA on the road this year. Kennedy has 2-5 career record and 8.31 ERA against the Cardinals and is sporting a lackluster 4.95 ERA at home this year.  Cardinals hold a strong edge in bullpen and the overall health of the bullpen. They will have good motivation to rebound after getting pounded last night.

White Sox +109

Rodon is beginning to come into his own with 2 solid performances and a row. Rodon has only allowed 2 earned runs in last 3 road starts, and Nuno is trying to work his way into rotation and hasn’t good deep into any of his starts. So the bullpen will play a huge factor and the Mariners have a horrible one with an available bullpen ERA of 4.86 and they have been getting lit up recently.  Not to mention the White Sox have the much hotter bats at the moment.

Brewers +142

I like plus numbers where I get the better starting pitcher and hotter team. Jungmann has been a pleasant surprise for Brewers this year having a 4-2 record and 2.62 ERA on the road this season.  He got back on track with a dominant performance over the Phillies last outing.  Joe Ross has been good at home, but got hit pretty hard in his last 2 outings and the Nationals have lost in 5 out of his last 6 starts. Brewers have had the hot bats hitting .286 and almost averaging 7 runs per game in their last 5.  The Brewers bullpen is showing better numbers recently and overall and are well-rested for this game if need be.  The Brewers have won 5 of 7, and Nationals have lost 8 of 10 giving a strong vote of confidence for the underdog here.

A’s -120

Going to try the A’s again here with huge pitching mismatch here. Gray has dominated at home with a line of 4-3 record, 2.50 ERA, and 0.93 WHIP. The A’s have won 7 of their last 9 with him on the mound and he has allowed no more than 2 earned runs in his last 5 starts. Ramirez has done a good job for the Rays, but has problems against the A’s with a career record of 0-6 with a 5.26 ERA versus them.  The bullpen for Oakland stinks, but I don’t see them getting much play as Gray usually goes deep into the game.

Analysis

Cubs -125

Lester has shown great bounce back ability allowing zero runs in his last 2 starts following a non-quality start.  Also, he has owned the Indians with a 7-1 record and 3.23 career ERA versus them.  Kluber is a lousy a lousy 3-7 record and 4.17 ERA on the road.  Cub bats are smoking lately with a .317 avg and 9.88 R/9 against righties in their last 10 games and scoring at least 6 runs in 9 of the last 10 games.  The Indians are finishing up a 11 game road trip after a hard fought 4 game series in New York.  The Cubs are looking to keep the good times rolling at Wrigley as they are trying to claw their way in the N.L. Central Race.

Yankees -132

Eovaldi has been a pleasant surprise for the Yanks this season and remains unbeaten at home with a 5-0 record and 3.46 ERA.  The Yankees have won in 8 of his last 10 starts.  Feldman has been fairly strong the last month, but has struggled in night games with a 2-4 record and 4.36 ERA this year.  The Houston bats are ice cold in the last 10 games with .204 avg and 2.58 R/9 against righties. The Yankees should be hungry for this game to rebound from the series loss to the Indians.

Mets RL -120

Degrom has dominating everyone since the all-star break as the Mets have won all 6 of his starts, and Phillies have pretty done nothing against him as he has a 2-0 record and 1.67 ERA in 4 career starts against the Phillies.  Morgan has generally been solid for the Phils, but he is nowhere in Degrom’s class. The Mets have a good chance to cover the spread as the bats have caught fire hitting .321 and averaging almost 8.5 runs on this road trip.

Pirates -140

Happ has found a decent groove only allowing 1 earned run in his last 2 starts.  The Pirates have feasted off of Koehler as he is a horrid 0-3 and 6.75 ERA against them.  Koehler get crushed in his last start and the Marlins have 6 of his last 7 starts.  Marlins are ice cold against lefties with a .182 avg and only averaging about 1 run per game against them in their last 10 games.  The Pirates are almost within in striking distance of the Cardinals in N.L. Central, meanwhile the Marlins look dismal dropping 3 in a row to the Phillies and look to have packed it in for the year.

Diamondbacks +110

Results 8/24/15 4-1 +300$

YTD: 9-8 + +196$

Recap:

Another winning day!  Mets with 8 homers to save the day, and walk off wins by the Yankees and Cubs.  Sometimes it better to be lucky than good.  Anyway, on to today.

Picks for 8/25/15

Cubs -130  2 units (4 points)

Cardinals -108 2 units (4 points)

Pirates -145 1 units (3 points)

Blue Jays -130 1 unit (3 points)

Royals -135 1 unit (3.5 points)

Analysis

Cubs -130

Arrieta is awesome on the road this year with a 9-1 record and 2.07, and the Cubs have won 9 of his last 10 starts.  His form has been second to none with all of his last 10 starts being quality ones. Cain has had some success against the Cubs in his career, but he is clearly not the pitcher he once was as he has been fighting to keep his rotation with a robust ERA of 5.66 on the season.  The Cubs have momentum scoring 7.08 R/9 in the last five, while Giants have failed to step up to the challenge in this wild card race hitting .167 and scoring 0.74 R/9 in their last 5 against righties.  I would probably go 3 units, but the situation is not greatest as the Giants will be looking to rebound against the Cubs after getting swept 4 in Wrigley.

Cardinals -108

The value on this line is excellent as Garcia has been another consistent dominator with 9 quality starts in his last 10.  His 4-0 record and 1.32 ERA on the road is a good thing to back.  Ray is 0-4 with a 4.45 ERA at home and 2-8 in night games.  The Diamondbacks have lost 6 of his last 7 starts.  With Cubs and Pirates creeping up on their heels, the Cardinals have to keep winning to maintain their position in the standings.

Pirates -145

Morton in decent form with 2 quality starts, and the Pirates have won his last 5 starts.  He has a solid 6-3 record and 3.88 ERA against the Marlins.  Not a lot there on Hand yet, but his 5.63 ERA on 1.46 WHIP in night games facing a good lineup would not be encouraging.  The Marlins are not the same offense with Stanton obviously, and are hitting .215 and 2.86 R/9 in their last 5.  The Pirates are aggressive in their pursuit of the Cardinals in the race, and it looks like the Marlins have packed it in.

Blue Jays -130

Buehrle has had a very nice rebound season with the Jays and is a career 14-5 and 3.26 ERA against the Rangers. I like his night split of 9-3 and 3.35 ERA. Holland looked good in his first start back from injury against Seattle, but this matchup is tough for him as he a career ERA of 5.02 against the Blue Jays in 6 starts.  The Blue Jays have feasted off of lefties this season with a .279 avg and 5.61 R/9 this season, and when their bats get hot they get really hot batting .312, slugging .545, and 9.60 R/9 in their last 5 games.  The Blue Jays have a great chance to take the division lead with the Yankees being underdogs tonight.

Royals -135

Results 8/25/15  4-1 +455$

YTD: 13-9 +651$

Recap:

The Cubs and Cardinals went the way I thought they would with the clear-cut pitching mismatches there.  Blue Jays can never be counted out with their offense, and the Royals remain true at home.

Picks for 8/26/15

Brewers +140 2 units (3.5 points)

Marlins +149 1 unit (2 points)

White Sox RL +115 1 unit (4 points)

Analysis

Brewers +140

I couldn’t believe this line when I seen it as the Brewers have a lofty starting pitching edge in this one.  Nelson has been in excellent form the last 2 months with 7 quality starts in his last 8, and the Brewers have 8 of his last 10 starts.  He has been solid in night games with a 10-6 record and 2.94 ERA, and he has held is own on the road going 6-6.  Cody Anderson is in terrible form giving up at least 4 runs in his last 4 starts and failing to get past the 3^rd inning in 2 of them.  The Indians have lost his last 3 starts.  Just do not see how the Tribe can be this big of a home favorite(unless Kluber is pitching of course), with their hideous 25-34 home record. The Brewers bats remain hot scoring over 6 runs per 9 and slugging .531 in the last 5 games.

Marlins +149

Locke has been far from a lock of late as he has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts.  He has gotten pounded on the road with a monster ERA of 6.02 and a WHIP of 1.66 in 10 road starts this year.  The ole veteran Naverson has found his into the starting for the Marlins.  However, I am liking his career record against the Pirates with a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.97 in 5 career starts versus them.  The Marlins have enjoyed good success against lefties this year with a .271 avg against them and 4.5 runs per game.  The Pirates are not nearly as good against lefties with a 3.69 R/9 and .255 avg.  The Marlins coming off win, and seems like bad teams usually play better after a win.

White Sox RL +115