Rack em up Saturday : Three PM Games

D-backs @ Braves  The side is hardly a surprise here and it's pricey.  I'm surprised by the total, though.  Journeyman Rodrigo goes for Zona, and he's not exactly All-Star material; still, Atlanta continues to struggle to string hits together.  Tommy Hanson, on the other hand, has talent coming out of his pores. He has shown improvement in both strikeouts and walks so far this season, and is riding a four-game dominant streak. If you’re looking for warts, Hanson lefties are hitting .284 against him.  Righties, though, are just .183 vs the Atlanta Ace.  Combine  that with the fact Reynolds and Upton, two of the D-Backs' power leaders, are each batting under .225 against RHP, and you get a power--and run--shortage on the Arizona side.  Hanson should carve up the opposition once again today.  Play: UNDER the total of 8.5.

Nats @ Rockies (Game 2):  Washington's Luis Atilano has been fortunate to be at 3-0 with en ERA of 3.57.  The high strand rate (76%) explains much of this.  Colorado sends out Jason Hammel, who's coming off the DL today.Hammels was out of whack mechanically before hitting the DL, and there's nothing of course to indicate anything's changed.  Washington hitters are no slouches.  In what appear to be evenly matched games, I'll take the dog every time.  Play: WASHINGTON +144

Cards @ Reds  St. Louis is also pricey today, but they present value nevertheless.  Adam Wainwright may not be flashy, but he flat out gets it done. Through seven starts, his ERA sits at 2.08 and his WHIP, Control and hr/9 are all at career levels.  He didn't get those numbers by being lucky.  The only caveat is his history at Great American (5.14 ERA).  Mike Leake has been a nice surprise for the Reds, having gone at least 6 IP in all 6 starts for an ERA of 3.10.  Red flag here, though:  Leake's hit-against rate at home is a mere 23%, and he's due for a correction.  If the Cards can score just three today, they win.  PLAY:  St Louis -140

Reds 

BOL

If Leake can stretch out another 7 IP today with a hit rate 8 points lower than the norm, I agree that the Reds stand a good chance of winning this game.  I just don't think he can, based on Regression, although admittedly that usually occurs over several games.  The other problem I see for Cincy is Pujols, who's been out-of-whack early, striking out twice his norm.  A rookie pitcher may be just what he needs.

In any event, it'll be a close game (then again, nearly a third of all baseball games are decided by one run, which is why I don't play run lines.)

Anyway, good luck!

nice write ups...the Braves under makes sense, GL.

RL

On tonights games

Your reports are very comprehensive, so do you keep a record of your    Win  Loss  over/under  ??????????????