Reds vs Cubs

Under 6.5

@RonBergundy

 Why the under ? Weather factor ?... this Vladimir guy pretty wild 1/2 bb/k ratio and over 6 era in triple A last year 

@criticalwager

My thoughts... if we all know how bad he is why total set so low? Maybe I am bugging, yet Weather will play a factor. Check what it’s supposed to be brother. I could be way off, and this total could go over after the first 5. However I am seeing a 3-1 Cubs win

There thinking the weather factor will out factor the bad pitching ... which could be the case ( if game even gets played) I thought the wind was blowing in from right field which would still be decent to play on ... pull hitters going left anyway... but seems it’s blowing in from centre field (hence covering entire outfield bringing balls back in) think the best bet is a pass lol better games out there 

@criticalwager

 He is 2-0 this year tho with 2.35era.  Not sure about the under l, but the Reds +160 looks mighty fine to me. Jumping on it, Cubs are due for a loss as well. 

@Shakes2255

 Im with the reds in this one as well

@Shakes2255

 2.35 era ? Where you getting this info ... 4.71 era 2021... got rocked in spring training too and is a walk heavy machine 

I'm on the over. Alzolay 4.30 ERA. Reds can hit and score. Both teams average over 4 runs. Reds may go over the total themselves. 

@Shakes2255

 His 2 starts triple A we’re better I suppose triple A but got more rocked in double AA...I see where youre getting the info from now ... winds may help him a bit today keeping the ball in Park but he’s also home run prone 22% flyball to home run ratio almost 1 in 4 fly balls were home runs in the minors off of him 

@criticalwager

 Read R Lieth 35 he has the weather update on his post. Rain and wind blowing in 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. You don't need home runs though to go over. 

@detroitdavid

 I was thinking the same at first but weather seems like a serious factor why it’s set so low 20 miles winds blowing in from Cf 

@criticalwager

 He had 3 starts In Louisville he was 2-0 with a 2.65 era 

@jdubb2584

 Don’t be fooled triple A is pitcher friendly and he got rocked in double AA very small sample size in comparison to triple A... 

@jdubb2584

 Best of luck to you tho 

@criticalwager

 Im not fooled but the cubs will be so ill be on the reds ml

@detroitdavid

 110% the Reds could get this over by themselves. I am fading the money in this one. BOL my man!

@RonBergundy

 I like your under..it opened at 7 been steamed under and public is all over the over..smells like sharp money to me

@jdubb2584

 It opened at 6.5 and every mlb game tonight almost has dropped .5 or even 1 now ... at least on the east coast ... reds win for you ... Cubs to score first... let’s cash it 

What would be the best bet

Reds over 2,5

Cubs over 3,5

Tt over 6

@hart31

 Cubbies scoring first 

Vladimir is not good. Making his first start at 25 years old because he's struggled so much in the minors. They paid him $4 million to sign 5 years ago and he's now just getting the call. They're just giving him his one shot. But there is definitely no special expectation of him and even many guys that are expected to be great get rocked when they first get called up. My only fear is that they'll have a really short leash on him and he'll just give you like 2-3 innings and you'll get major league pitching the rest of the way. 

@criticalwager

 You honestly don't really have a clue to anything I've read.. its one game he Is pitching in 1 game.. triple A Is not pitcher friendly.. never heard anyone dumb enough to say that.. double a Is pitcher friendly.. guess what else .. they have never seen him.. you must have been pissed when the jays pitcher pitches 6 shutout innings in that hitter friendly bam box.. 

@Everyone

BOL! This weather today should be interesting to watch for. Happy MDW to all! Enjoy it! 

@ThrowDemDarts

 How do you know he's not good ? .. you must be pissed with Ian Anderson and Trevor Rogers success.. since they weren't good in the minors and are legitimate aces of respective playoff contending teams going forward.. a guy can play up and click at any time.. with much more advanced major league scouting.. better presumable coaches tweaking things to mechanics and major league fielders making great defensive plays behind them.. minors doesn't mean success or lack of.. otherwise all these minor leaguers with great numbers who can't make it in the bigs.. works both ways 

SOME FACTORS TO CONSIDER THIS AFTERNOON (OTHER THAN THE WIND)...

CIN Pitching -

Allow 2nd most walks in MLB [205];

3rd highest overall ERA in MLB [4.98];

6th highest overall WHIP in MLB [1.47];

Allow 4th most ER in MLB [237] despite having only allowed 61 HR this season (AKA most runs scored against them come when ball stays in park);

2nd fewest QS in MLB [10]; 

Bullpen has 3rd highest ERA in MLB [5.29];

Bullpen has 3rd highest BB/9 in MLB [4.92]

Bullpen has lowest LOB% in MLB [63.6%]

Bullpen has 5th lowest GB% in MLB [40.2%]

Bullpen has 12th highest ERA in MLB over last 7 days [4.84]

Bullpen has 3rd lowest LOB% in MLB over last 7 days [56.2%]

Bullpen has 3rd lowest ERA in MLB [2.87];

Bullpen has highest K/9 in MLB [11.36];

Bullpen has highest GB% in MLB [50.9%];

Bullpen has 3rd highest LOB% in MLB [78.9%];

Bullpen has lowest ERA in MLB over the last 7 days [0.00 ERA];

Bullpen has highest LOB% in MLB over the last 7 days [94.7%]

CHC Batting -

10th most walks in MLB [171];

9th highest BB% in MLB [9.2%];

Top 10 overall AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS in MLB [.240/.322/.406/.728]

Adbert Alzolay [CHC Starter] may not have a great ERA this season [4.30], but he has one of the lowest WHIP's in MLB [0.86], having allowed only 1 walk in all of May. 

Given the weather in Chicago, my metrics have CHC as definite favorites in this matchup. I'd take them F5, FG, and TT over 3.5.

BOL!!!