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#1
2-2 for - $750
Well, it sucks to lose on a wild pitch, but it happens. Onto today's game...
The line opened at Baltimore at -120/-125 in most books. Heavy action pushed the Baltimore line to -130/-135 but it has now dropped down to -115 and it is dropping more. Expect it to hit -110 at some time before game-time. Despite heavy public wagering, over 70% on the RL and about 60% on the ML.
Looking at some stats, the Orioles are a HR hitting team. Shields has a HR/9 inning rate of 0.9. He doesn't walk a lot of batters either as he has a rate of 1.7/9 innings. I don't see the Orioles hitting a HR and if they do, they won't be hitting 2 or 3 run shots.
Coming to the Royals, they are a speed team. They get on base and take advantage of small ball. While Tillman has a similar HR/9 innings...Tillman walks at a rate of 2.9/9 innings. Meaning, he is more likely to get men on base and allow those stolen bases.
Taking into affect the line movement and the pitcher statistics, I am on the Royals tonight to steal Game 1.
Kansas City Royals ML ($500 to win $550)
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