I'm actually tracking this stat. Have a large spreadsheet tracking every game since opening day. If you bet No run in the 1st inning every game you will definitely end up on the losing end. Large. The odds will kill you. The books, on average, set this line favoring the NO and the Yes comes in about 50% of the time. Tonight for example the Yes was 8 for 14.
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I'm actually tracking this stat. Have a large spreadsheet tracking every game since opening day. If you bet No run in the 1st inning every game you will definitely end up on the losing end. Large. The odds will kill you. The books, on average, set this line favoring the NO and the Yes comes in about 50% of the time. Tonight for example the Yes was 8 for 14.
WRK-592 (RE: Will A Run Be Scored IN The 1st Inning) Just to be a little clearer, the NO has come in 53% of the time and the Yes has come in 47% percent of the time this season. (Thru this past Thursday) I don't know the average odds on the NO bet but I can estimate it is around -140 to -150. With that being said, if you bet no on every game the juice would kill you..........not to mention the 3% loss.
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WRK-592 (RE: Will A Run Be Scored IN The 1st Inning) Just to be a little clearer, the NO has come in 53% of the time and the Yes has come in 47% percent of the time this season. (Thru this past Thursday) I don't know the average odds on the NO bet but I can estimate it is around -140 to -150. With that being said, if you bet no on every game the juice would kill you..........not to mention the 3% loss.
Teams are more likely to score in the 1st than any other inning. Even a game that has a 6.5 O/U usually scores 1 run in the first. I play no scores in the first but few and far between. The only game I like today for no score is bosox/det game 2 (beck/Ver)
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
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Teams are more likely to score in the 1st than any other inning. Even a game that has a 6.5 O/U usually scores 1 run in the first. I play no scores in the first but few and far between. The only game I like today for no score is bosox/det game 2 (beck/Ver)
I gave this shit a try last week,a fucking waste of time,some days the No's do well so day's the Yes does well.If ya got two ace pitchers ya got a good shot with the No but if you consider the low odds you have to get 2/3 right just to break even.Nickels and Dimes was doing well but has been MIA lately.
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I gave this shit a try last week,a fucking waste of time,some days the No's do well so day's the Yes does well.If ya got two ace pitchers ya got a good shot with the No but if you consider the low odds you have to get 2/3 right just to break even.Nickels and Dimes was doing well but has been MIA lately.
How about breaking it down by pitchers, which starters are more apt to surrender a first inning run as opposed to those who normally are able to escape the first inning without giving up a run? Or choose the pitchers that have the best record via the scoreless first and sticking with them throughout the season? Just a thought or two.
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How about breaking it down by pitchers, which starters are more apt to surrender a first inning run as opposed to those who normally are able to escape the first inning without giving up a run? Or choose the pitchers that have the best record via the scoreless first and sticking with them throughout the season? Just a thought or two.
All of the posts here are pretty accurate: - It's a tough bet because of the vig. If it were a 10% line it wouldn't be so tough, but the average line is usually -150 / +120. - Some teams such as SD & WAS rarely score runs in the 1st inning (16% each) but they give up a run in the 1st 42% and 35% of the time respectively. Meanwhile a team such as DET scores a run in the 1st 31% of the time but only allows a run 15% of the time. -Pitching is of course key but some guys with decent W/L records and ERA's will give up 1st inning runs. Anibal Sanchez for the Marlins is 4-1 and has an ERA of 2.60, yet he has allowed runs in 60% of his starts and another one tonight against AZ. -Some teams and pitchers are predictable and follow the norm as you would expect; CIN, NYY FLA and TOR score and give up a lot of 1st inning runs. OAK, BAL and both LA teams score few and give up few 1st inning runs. I put together a program to track all of this. The program allows you to insert the team and pitcher and it spits out the 1st inning match-up. (As well as over under stats for the total and team). Thought about selling a years subscription for $19 which would entail an updated spreadsheet every week. Entering the data is a pain in the ass. Not sure if it would generate too much interest because I don't think a lot of guys play this bet.....................I like it because I don't have to wait 3 hours for the results.
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All of the posts here are pretty accurate: - It's a tough bet because of the vig. If it were a 10% line it wouldn't be so tough, but the average line is usually -150 / +120. - Some teams such as SD & WAS rarely score runs in the 1st inning (16% each) but they give up a run in the 1st 42% and 35% of the time respectively. Meanwhile a team such as DET scores a run in the 1st 31% of the time but only allows a run 15% of the time. -Pitching is of course key but some guys with decent W/L records and ERA's will give up 1st inning runs. Anibal Sanchez for the Marlins is 4-1 and has an ERA of 2.60, yet he has allowed runs in 60% of his starts and another one tonight against AZ. -Some teams and pitchers are predictable and follow the norm as you would expect; CIN, NYY FLA and TOR score and give up a lot of 1st inning runs. OAK, BAL and both LA teams score few and give up few 1st inning runs. I put together a program to track all of this. The program allows you to insert the team and pitcher and it spits out the 1st inning match-up. (As well as over under stats for the total and team). Thought about selling a years subscription for $19 which would entail an updated spreadsheet every week. Entering the data is a pain in the ass. Not sure if it would generate too much interest because I don't think a lot of guys play this bet.....................I like it because I don't have to wait 3 hours for the results.
for some strange reason, i see more and more peeps playing this prop this year than in years' past.
i find this to be too degenerate of a prop...a bloop, and error and you're fucked; id rather sweat out 27 outs than 6
I noticed a lot of Martingale Players trying it. If you pick your spots and play the Yes it can be a decent play, but I think most people play the No at bad odds.
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Quote Originally Posted by daLOCKSMITH:
for some strange reason, i see more and more peeps playing this prop this year than in years' past.
i find this to be too degenerate of a prop...a bloop, and error and you're fucked; id rather sweat out 27 outs than 6
I noticed a lot of Martingale Players trying it. If you pick your spots and play the Yes it can be a decent play, but I think most people play the No at bad odds.
I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
good luck to all
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I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
good luck to all
I definitely agree. I play the NO frequently based on the spreadsheet data and do quite well. (Not quite 79% like your winning percentage) But when the "NO RUN" goes to -160 and higher I usually lay off.
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Quote Originally Posted by chvatalas:
I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
good luck to all
I definitely agree. I play the NO frequently based on the spreadsheet data and do quite well. (Not quite 79% like your winning percentage) But when the "NO RUN" goes to -160 and higher I usually lay off.
I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
good luck to all
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Quote Originally Posted by chvatalas:
I have actually been very successful so far in first inning NO runs scored this year. Record 15-4. After reading all the posts it seems that most everyone only talking about the pitchers who are starting for the game. I personally look at two weaker teams playing each other who have weaker lineups, going against the best pitchers from both teams. If you've noticed I've only played 19 games so far through out the year so far. It doesnt always work that you have a weak team with a weak lineup going against each team 1 or 2 pitcher. Maybe I have been lucky doing this, this year, or maybe I will hit a rough spot coming up, either way I'm gona keep doing what has worked.
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