Posted:
#1
I got hammered yesterday: lost all five games in which I bet the favorite, including Johnson, Price and Lincecum. I did go 3-0 on my underdog picks, so clearly I am having better luck there. I have been really pleased overall in the % getting the outcome of my side's starting pitcher correct, but have had my fair share of late inning heroics and snafus. So, I will focus more on the dogs for now, where I can only lose 1 unit and get paid big if the play comes through for me.
CINCINNATI (Cueto) @ CHICAGO CUBS (Wells)
PICK: REDS -115
Cueto comes into this game with 3 straight terrific starts, and he is facing a Cubs team that simply cannot win baseball games, no matter who is starting for them.
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UNDERDOG SPECIAL
NEW YORK METS (Dickey) @ WASHINGTON (Strasburg)
PICK: METS +170
The market is still overvaluing the obvious talents of Mr. Strasburg, and is ignoring his 100 pitch limit and the inevitable reliance on the Nationals pen. There is no reason to expect anything less than another sensational outing from Strasburg, but as I have emphasized many times before, he will likely be limited to pitching no more than 7, 6 or even 5 innings. Although the Nationals pen is one of the better in baseball, as measured by ERA, the pen has struggled lately and has not been helped by the fielding either. Facing the Nationals, we have RA Dickey who has surprised us with his effectiveness. I have been waiting for his blowup and we got that his last start, and hopefully he will return to form tomorrow. I anticipate a close battle between the starters, which means I am basically betting Mets +170 from the 7th inning stretch to rest of the game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SEATTLE (Vargas) @ DETROIT (Verlander)
PICK: MARINERS +170
This is my 3rd straight underdog pick on the Mariners, who leave Yankee stadium winning 2 of 3, with the lone loss being a nail-biter to -400 Sabathia. I realize that Verlander is a better home pitcher, but for the season, the stats and game log show that Vargas has been better and more consistent. The Mariners also bring a 0.291 team BA against Verlander into this game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
BALTIMORE (Guthrie) @ BOSTON (Lester)
PICK: ORIOLES +270
This is the longest shot of my underdog picks but here is why. You can say this about Guthrie: he tends to give you a quality start in over 67% of his starts. And he faces a Red Sox lineup that is now seriously depleted by injury. The Orioles are facing the best Sox pitcher, and the most I can realistically hope for is a few scattered runs, or an improbable blowup by Lester. However, if I am right that the Red Sox will be challenged to score runs, I think that the Orioles can squeak out a lead, in time for us to keep our fingers crossed for the bullpen to close.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
KC ROYALS (Chen) @ LA ANGELS (Santana)
PICK: ROYALS +165
I am back on the Royals for the 2nd straight night. Statistically, Chen and Santana are nearly the same in terms of ERA and WHIP. Chen has been a gritty pitcher, making the most of his talents, to keep the Royals in the game. While I don't like this 25:39 BB:K ratio, he allows less than 1 hit per inning and his K/9 IP is nearly 1, which means that he can pitch out of trouble. Santana has been the more inconsistent of the two pitchers and opponents bat 0.272 against him. The Royals as a team have the #1 batting average in baseball, which means they are always dangerous to get runners on base and score runs.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SF GIANTS (Zito) @ COLORADO (Jimenez)
PICK: GIANTS +185
Zito has pitched well for most of the season including a strong start against the Rockies earlier this year. As a team, the Rockies are hitting only 0.205 against him in 210 AB. Jimenez has been outstanding this year, but has struggled in his last two starts. I have often pointed out that you assume he finishes the year with an ERA of just 2.5, that means he will have to average 3.5 the rest of the way -- the law of averages will have to come into play at some point.
CINCINNATI (Cueto) @ CHICAGO CUBS (Wells)
PICK: REDS -115
Cueto comes into this game with 3 straight terrific starts, and he is facing a Cubs team that simply cannot win baseball games, no matter who is starting for them.
=====
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
NEW YORK METS (Dickey) @ WASHINGTON (Strasburg)
PICK: METS +170
The market is still overvaluing the obvious talents of Mr. Strasburg, and is ignoring his 100 pitch limit and the inevitable reliance on the Nationals pen. There is no reason to expect anything less than another sensational outing from Strasburg, but as I have emphasized many times before, he will likely be limited to pitching no more than 7, 6 or even 5 innings. Although the Nationals pen is one of the better in baseball, as measured by ERA, the pen has struggled lately and has not been helped by the fielding either. Facing the Nationals, we have RA Dickey who has surprised us with his effectiveness. I have been waiting for his blowup and we got that his last start, and hopefully he will return to form tomorrow. I anticipate a close battle between the starters, which means I am basically betting Mets +170 from the 7th inning stretch to rest of the game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SEATTLE (Vargas) @ DETROIT (Verlander)
PICK: MARINERS +170
This is my 3rd straight underdog pick on the Mariners, who leave Yankee stadium winning 2 of 3, with the lone loss being a nail-biter to -400 Sabathia. I realize that Verlander is a better home pitcher, but for the season, the stats and game log show that Vargas has been better and more consistent. The Mariners also bring a 0.291 team BA against Verlander into this game.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
BALTIMORE (Guthrie) @ BOSTON (Lester)
PICK: ORIOLES +270
This is the longest shot of my underdog picks but here is why. You can say this about Guthrie: he tends to give you a quality start in over 67% of his starts. And he faces a Red Sox lineup that is now seriously depleted by injury. The Orioles are facing the best Sox pitcher, and the most I can realistically hope for is a few scattered runs, or an improbable blowup by Lester. However, if I am right that the Red Sox will be challenged to score runs, I think that the Orioles can squeak out a lead, in time for us to keep our fingers crossed for the bullpen to close.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
KC ROYALS (Chen) @ LA ANGELS (Santana)
PICK: ROYALS +165
I am back on the Royals for the 2nd straight night. Statistically, Chen and Santana are nearly the same in terms of ERA and WHIP. Chen has been a gritty pitcher, making the most of his talents, to keep the Royals in the game. While I don't like this 25:39 BB:K ratio, he allows less than 1 hit per inning and his K/9 IP is nearly 1, which means that he can pitch out of trouble. Santana has been the more inconsistent of the two pitchers and opponents bat 0.272 against him. The Royals as a team have the #1 batting average in baseball, which means they are always dangerous to get runners on base and score runs.
UNDERDOG SPECIAL
SF GIANTS (Zito) @ COLORADO (Jimenez)
PICK: GIANTS +185
Zito has pitched well for most of the season including a strong start against the Rockies earlier this year. As a team, the Rockies are hitting only 0.205 against him in 210 AB. Jimenez has been outstanding this year, but has struggled in his last two starts. I have often pointed out that you assume he finishes the year with an ERA of just 2.5, that means he will have to average 3.5 the rest of the way -- the law of averages will have to come into play at some point.
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