St. Louis +1.5 and Why

Question

Record stands at 0-1, took it on the chin lastnight. let's try to get them today. Let's look at some numbers:

Stlouis Wain. 12

-225 LA Scherz. -4

LA opens up as a 225 fav currently around 235. On the Runline, Stlouis is +1.5 - 108. Rating wise I give Wainwright a 12 and Scherz. a -4. With a -4 rating it pretty much means you dominate, which he has done. Another good sign for a pitcher is s/o per i.p - which Scher has 236/179. When I look at previous playoff history with these ratings - I have limited data and the home team was favored 190 and lost. Looking at regular season numbers Several instances where the Away team won it on the runline and a couple where the away team won outright.

There's a couple of other factors that I like to look at - streaks - LA has won 7 games in a row, i find streaks often end win or lose on 7 game streaks. Not yesterdays start for Cole but his previous start against Toronto - Yankees 7 game streak ended - the same night the Cubs ended their 7 game streak and Miami ended theirs. In addition, I find teams who play these teams losing or winning 7 games don't always end the streak but can keep it close. Once again something i keep notice of and try to record. Just another factor i like to consider.

Furthermore, Scherzer's last 2 starts were NDecisions, i find sometimes those things can impact a pitchers performance. For example, when Eovaldi pitched against the Yankees - Not yesterday - his previous start against them - he had 6 ND in a row - he gave up a 3 runs in the first couple of innings. Once again, just trying to look at additional factors that may impact his performance.

Finally, looking at the opening line - the last time we had an opening line of 225 for the home team in the playoffs was 2013 (according to the lines I track) - the away team covered the runline.

I led you down the wrong path yesterday - hopefully we can correct that tonight. Good luck all

TheBuddah · Answer

Record stands at 0-1, took it on the chin lastnight. let's try to get them today. Let's look at some numbers:

Stlouis Wain. 12

-225 LA Scherz. -4

LA opens up as a 225 fav currently around 235. On the Runline, Stlouis is +1.5 - 108. Rating wise I give Wainwright a 12 and Scherz. a -4. With a -4 rating it pretty much means you dominate, which he has done. Another good sign for a pitcher is s/o per i.p - which Scher has 236/179. When I look at previous playoff history with these ratings - I have limited data and the home team was favored 190 and lost. Looking at regular season numbers Several instances where the Away team won it on the runline and a couple where the away team won outright.

There's a couple of other factors that I like to look at - streaks - LA has won 7 games in a row, i find streaks often end win or lose on 7 game streaks. Not yesterdays start for Cole but his previous start against Toronto - Yankees 7 game streak ended - the same night the Cubs ended their 7 game streak and Miami ended theirs. In addition, I find teams who play these teams losing or winning 7 games don't always end the streak but can keep it close. Once again something i keep notice of and try to record. Just another factor i like to consider.

Furthermore, Scherzer's last 2 starts were NDecisions, i find sometimes those things can impact a pitchers performance. For example, when Eovaldi pitched against the Yankees - Not yesterday - his previous start against them - he had 6 ND in a row - he gave up a 3 runs in the first couple of innings. Once again, just trying to look at additional factors that may impact his performance.

Finally, looking at the opening line - the last time we had an opening line of 225 for the home team in the playoffs was 2013 (according to the lines I track) - the away team covered the runline.

I led you down the wrong path yesterday - hopefully we can correct that tonight. Good luck all