Stat Freaks

One of the things I track and project is called offensive e.r.a. Just as pitchers have an e.r.a, so do offenses. This is what the MLB teams are accomplishing to date versus right handed starters, projected to probable output versus the average right handed starter. Sometimes very surprising, sometimes very revealing, as teams do not perform the same regardless of whether the opponent is right or left handed. Sometimes guys are disappointed that a certain starter is not getting the day off, when in fact it may be an offensive move by the manager. Remember, this is an era, so if the opponent starter goes 6 innings and is of average quality, that team should score about 2/3 of the projected offensive era in 6 innings. Every game is different (or there would be no gambling) but any measure of productivity is worthy of attention. Lefties to follow, BUT, results and projections are not as solid versus lefties yet, since most teams have only seen 2 to 4 this early in the season. As teams reach 15 games versus each, lefty and righty, the numbers become much more reliable.

NY Yankees
San Francisco
Texas
Colorado
Ch White Sox
St Louis
Boston
Arizona
Florida
Houston
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Cleveland
LA Angels
Ch Cubs
Oakland
Washington
Kansas City
NY Mets
Minnesota
Toronto
Detroit
Tampa Bay
San Diego
LA Dodgers
Seattle
Average

NY Yankees
San Francisco
Texas
Colorado
Ch White Sox
St Louis
Boston
Arizona
Florida
Houston
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Cleveland
LA Angels
Ch Cubs
Oakland
Washington
Kansas City
NY Mets
Minnesota
Toronto
Detroit
Tampa Bay
San Diego
LA Dodgers
Seattle
Average

Excel won't post, I will type it out, brb

interesting KE!  Paste from Excel to Notepad and then paste from Notepad here.  it will work better.

San Francisco..5.9

Texas..5.7

Colorado..5.3

Ch White Sox..5.2

St Louis..5.2

Boston..5

Arizona..4.7

Florida..4.7

Houston..4.7

Pittsburgh..4.5

Philadelphia..4.4

Baltimore..4.3

Cincinnati..4.3

Atlanta..4.2

Milwaukee..4.1

Cleveland..4

LA Angels..4

Ch Cubs..39

Oakland..39

Washington..3.9

Kansas City..3.8

NY Mets..3.7

Minnesota..3.6

Toronto..3.4

Detroit..3

Tampa Bay..2.8

San Diego..2.6

LA Dodgers..2.4

Seattle..1.7

Average..4.2

Seattle

The damn thing cut off the Yankees at the top, here is allbees suggested method (thank you)

1 NY Yankees..7.5
2 San Francisco..5.9
3 Texas..5.7
4 Colorado..5.3
5 Ch White Sox..5.2
6 St Louis..5.2
7 Boston..5
8 Arizona..4.7
9 Florida..4.7
10 Houston..4.7
11 Pittsburgh..4.5
12 Philadelphia..4.4
13 Baltimore..4.3
14 Cincinnati..4.3
15 Atlanta..4.2
16 Milwaukee..4.1
17 Cleveland..4
18 LA Angels..4
19 Ch Cubs..39
20 Oakland..39
21 Washington..3.9
22 Kansas City..3.8
23 NY Mets..3.7
24 Minnesota..3.6
25 Toronto..3.4
26 Detroit..3
27 Tampa Bay..2.8
28 San Diego..2.6
29 LA Dodgers..2.4
30 Seattle..1.7

        Average..4.2

Vs left handed starters, more reliable in about 2-3 weeks

1 Philadelphia    9.5
2 NY Mets        9.1
3 Houston        8.4
4 Cincinnati    8.3
5 Kansas City    7.7
6 Colorado    7.1
7 Cleveland    6.9
8 Arizona        5.8
9 St Louis        5.7
10 LA Dodgers    4.7
11 NY Yankees    4.5
12 Boston        4.2
13 LA Angels    4.2
14 Toronto    4
15 Milwaukee    3.7
16 San Francisco    3.6
17 Tampa Bay    3.5
18 San Diego    3.1
19 Texas        3
20 Washington    3
21 Ch Cubs    2.8
22 Ch White Sox    2.6
23 Pittsburgh    2.6
24 Atlanta        2.5
25 Florida        2.4
26 Baltimore    2.3
27 Seattle        2.3
28 Minnesota    2.1
29 Detroit        1.9
30 Oakland    1.6

        Average    4.44

Good Stuff, thanks                                                    

Combined: This little exercise computes total projections based on what we know TODAY, and will change drastically over the next 2-3 weeks as all past references are phased out and only this season's current accomplishments have any effect. By June the numbers should be highly reliable and show who is getting run production out of their ba, obp, slg, etc. Teams that strand lots of runners, especially RISP, will have a low rating despite what their basic ba, obp, slg. etc. seem like they should produce. BTW, results vs lefties are not as heavily weighted in this projection, as only 25% of the pitching any team will see, and only 20% of the good pitching, is left handed.

            Combined
1 NY Yankees    6.9
2 Colorado    5.66
3 Houston        5.44
4 San Francisco    5.44
5 Philadelphia    5.42
6 St Louis        5.3
7 Texas        5.16
8 Cincinnati    5.1
9 Arizona        4.92
10 Boston        4.84
11 NY Mets    4.78
12 Ch White Sox    4.68
13 Kansas City    4.58
14 Cleveland    4.58
15 Florida        4.24
16 Pittsburgh    4.12
17 LA Angels    4.04
18 Milwaukee    4.02
19 Baltimore    3.9
20 Atlanta        3.86
21 Washington    3.72
22 Ch Cubs    3.68
23 Toronto    3.52
24 Oakland    3.44
25 Minnesota    3.3
26 Tampa Bay    2.94
27 LA Dodgers    2.86
28 Detroit        2.78
29 San Diego    2.7
30 Seattle        1.82

        Average    4.26

If Seattle sucks as bad as the early numbers indicate they should blow up the franchise. Could Felix win another Cy Young with only 10 or 11 wins?

like it Key   so we should unload on the Detroit/Seattle under

thanks, I haven't looked at a single stat this year

Great info! Thanks! best of Luck with your plays

Good stuff Key.