Yesterday 1-0, +2.11
Season 10-2, +13.58units
Tex +1.5 (-155) at SEA, risk 3 to win 1.93
No introduction needed for Felix Hernandez. He is lights out. Or is he. Yes, he strikes out a batter an inning and can dominate. But a look at his career numbers show that while held is such elite, high regard, his career ERA is 3.21 and whip is 1.21. Now the majority of pitchers in the bigs would love to have those career numbers, but for a truely elite pitcher...meh. He walks his fair share and gives up the long ball. He has a sub .500 winning percentage vs Tex over his career, posting 3.76/1.24/.250. In his last start his velocity was off and he was having trouble hitting his spots. Seattle will also be without Michael Saunders who is out with a troubled shoulder after bashing into the wall. This depletes an already weak lineup. Lastly, of note, Seattle's bullpen has thrown 14.1IP over its last 3 games.
Texas will recall Justin Grimm from AAA to start this one. Dont look at his 14IP last year, as that is not a representative sample of his talent. He has done very well in the minors, compiling a 19-9 record with a 3.07ERA and 1.196whip. He strikes out 7.5/9IP with a good K/BB ratio of 2.93. In his first start this year he threw 5.2 innings allowing only 6 base runners and striking out 4.
Some last numbers:
Mariners hitting .219 as a team, and Saunders out
Texas hitting .267
2012, Tex OPS vs righties was 2nd in majors at .775
2012, Sea OPS vs righties was last in majors at .657
Teams aces lose. Just look at last Sunday when Verlander, Stratsburg, Dickey, Price, Weaver Hamels and Cain all took the loss. Aces are favoured so heavily that there is value on the other side. Too much value offered with Texas in this game, and I could easily see them winning this one outright at +140, but will certainly take the 1.5 runs at a great price.
BOL!
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