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The truth about this NL Wildcard game...

...
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Posted: #1
everyone is going to claim they love a side tonight....

But This is about as evenly matched as it could be. A lot of people will take the rockies purely based on value and thats not a terrible idea tbh. They have a starting pitching Adv. ON PAPER. I capped this game at a near tie... cubs 3.3 rockies 3.1. I will not be taking a side. Lester really is a special post season pitcher and post season pitching is soooo much different than regular season so we will see what freeland has in store. Hes a special talent for sure. Rockies hit poor on the road and are traveling from LA to chicago and cubs bats are asleep. So in other words i think its quite literally impossible to really feel strongly about one side objectively. 

Im on the biggest winning streak of my life between NFL / NCAAF / last 2 weeks of baseball season and Im on the under 7.5, but I actually just bought tickets to the game so im thinking i might just hedge out and eat the juice so i can just enjoy the game sweat free lol. 

Either way, good luck to whoever or whatever you take and GO CUBS GO
 
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Posted: #2
Forgot to add... just be careful with this game. Its not the game you want to go HUGEEEE x100000 unit play. Bet within your means and enjoy stress free. There are games where you have an edge and going big is justified but this is not one of em
 
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Posted: #3
I agree this ain't worth a large bet. Just a small one if you need action likely on rocks for value. Have fun at the game. I'd hedge out as well if I were going do I could sit back and enjoy it lol. 
 
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Posted: #4

Enjoy the game mate !

 
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Posted: #5

an_violin

 
Prospect
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Posted: #6

 

I will be there tonight as well.  Cubbies had the advantage on paper with Mil numbers vs Quintana.  That Brewers team is steaming right now.  Tonight is about as even as it gets.  I got this game 4-2 either way.  Freeland has slightly better numbers then Lester but this is playoff baseball and Johnny Lester has shown up in the past.  We will see what the Kid has.  The Juice at .34 cents is for the home team and is a little high if I'm being non-bias.  No value either way for me on the bet. Total is spot on at 7.  

 

 

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by YuBuuBuu:

everyone is going to claim they love a side tonight....But This is about as evenly matched as it could be. A lot of people will take the rockies purely based on value and thats not a terrible idea tbh. They have a starting pitching Adv. ON PAPER. I capped this game at a near tie... cubs 3.3 rockies 3.1. I will not be taking a side. Lester really is a special post season pitcher and post season pitching is soooo much different than regular season so we will see what freeland has in store. Hes a special talent for sure. Rockies hit poor on the road and are traveling from LA to chicago and cubs bats are asleep. So in other words i think its quite literally impossible to really feel strongly about one side objectively. Im on the biggest winning streak of my life between NFL / NCAAF / last 2 weeks of baseball season and Im on the under 7.5, but I actually just bought tickets to the game so im thinking i might just hedge out and eat the juice so i can just enjoy the game sweat free lol. Either way, good luck to whoever or whatever you take and GO CUBS GO

 
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Posted: #7

Lol I don’t get this logic some people have with betting. Where some games are “good” to bet and others are “bad” ideas to bet. Any game any sport anything could happen and this game isn’t any “harder” or “easier” to bet on

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:

Lol I don’t get this logic some people have with betting. Where some games are “good” to bet and others are “bad” ideas to bet. Any game any sport anything could happen and this game isn’t any “harder” or “easier” to bet on


Sorry but you couldnt be more wrong here. There are 100% games that have discernible edges. Im very successful during NBA season bc of games just like that. Not to mention all of the info that is out there in terms of betting percentages, ticket info, steam and RLM. Theres a reason why there are professionals. I take it you have never handicapped a game or have never seen in depth gambling models. 
 
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Posted: #9
Corky monster - totally agree in every aspect the line is just so sharp on both total and sises! Lets enjoy a great game of baseball win or lose! I hedged out my bet so its time to enjoy 9 innings of electricity at wrigley
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:

Lol I don’t get this logic some people have with betting. Where some games are “good” to bet and others are “bad” ideas to bet. Any game any sport anything could happen and this game isn’t any “harder” or “easier” to bet on


Actually the whole point in betting is to place a wager where you feel you have an edge with your understanding and research of that particular game. I dont bet assuming it's a coin flip and neither should you.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:

Lol I don’t get this logic some people have with betting. Where some games are “good” to bet and others are “bad” ideas to bet. Any game any sport anything could happen and this game isn’t any “harder” or “easier” to bet on


I agree. bs happens in every game. You can do all the research in the world tbh. Dont know if anyone here bets nfl, but for example, this last weekend on the houston-indy game. Spread was hou -1 and indy decides to go for it on 4th down in ot and gave the back to hou. INdy could've punted and game would almost be over. But nope, indy goes for it, gave the ball back to houston. hous kicks a fg to cover. You can not cap that type of bs.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by D00bies:


I agree. bs happens in every game. You can do all the research in the world tbh. Dont know if anyone here bets nfl, but for example, this last weekend on the houston-indy game. Spread was hou -1 and indy decides to go for it on 4th down in ot and gave the back to hou. INdy could've punted and game would almost be over. But nope, indy goes for it, gave the ball back to houston. hous kicks a fg to cover. You can not cap that type of bs.

If you agree, you shouldnt be betting imo. Only around 30% of games, probably less, even have enough value or an edge worth wagering on. Stop betting on every game... houston vs indy was exactly the type of game where there was literally no value and a coin flip at best. 
 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by D00bies:


I agree. bs happens in every game. You can do all the research in the world tbh. Dont know if anyone here bets nfl, but for example, this last weekend on the houston-indy game. Spread was hou -1 and indy decides to go for it on 4th down in ot and gave the back to hou. INdy could've punted and game would almost be over. But nope, indy goes for it, gave the ball back to houston. hous kicks a fg to cover. You can not cap that type of bs.

Also this kind of thinking is emotionally driven. 

For example yesterday... I took Denver +4.5 and won. Some took +3.5 and got screwed. Those that took denver +3.5 still had an edge and shouldve won but didnt. Process over results in that situation. If i make the right wager but lose because of an anomaly then so be it. Denver was the right side to be on regardless. Those that can see it is always process over results will be successful in sports betting. 
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