Posted:
#1
Minnesota Twins (Santana) vs Los Angeles Angels (Bridwell)
The Twins face an arm in Parker Bridwell that has been absolutely ATROCIOUS so far. While he has just pitched 24 innings and that's far too short to judge anything off of, his minor league numbers didn't suggest anything different would happen. He held a 4.53 xFIP in AA last year and struck out 6 while walking 4. He's been lit up in every start so far and I doubt the tide changes here. I mean, the guy has found a way to give up 7 home runs in 20 innings. That in itself is a feat and not one that any good pitchers achieve. I have no idea why he is now getting an MLB opportunity, but he is and I'd like to take advantage.
The top of the Twins order has been rather deadly against RHP. Led by Sano, who has been amazing this season, holding a 50% hard contact rate and .275 ISO. Against righties, he has a .384 wOBA and has already smashed 16 homers. Then Brian Dozier, who hit righties to the tune of a .362 wOBA. Along with two left handed bats in Kepler and Mauer who also hold wOBA's over .360 vs RHP.
On the mound, you have Ervin Santana, whose peripherals suggest that he likely will suffer a little bit of regression over the long haul. However, against a Trout-less Angels lineup that struggles against RHP, I am rather confident that his 1.058 WHIP and 3.07 ERA will remain intact for another outing.
I'm not crazy about betting lines like this, but Bridwell is so bad. I honestly don't think it's lopsided enough.
Minnesota Twins (Santana) -155
Hope everyone had a good 4th of July!
GL
0
Hot Forum Topics
