There are folks that just hate it when I do this, but are we not out to win, and try to pre determine where the value lies? At -270 Verlander must have a 73% plus chance of winning tonight to make the play justifiable and bet the "perceived" value. I say perceived because in the morning the value lies 100% with the winner. The loser cashes 0 and his value is negative, regardless of whether or not someone called him a "value" play.
As I usually point out, at -270 Verlander pays 37% of the wagered risk, regardless of what betting style you use, and you don't have many investments that are going to earn 37% today, unless you are a major drug cartel.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Tigers -270 Verlander / Blackburn
There are folks that just hate it when I do this, but are we not out to win, and try to pre determine where the value lies? At -270 Verlander must have a 73% plus chance of winning tonight to make the play justifiable and bet the "perceived" value. I say perceived because in the morning the value lies 100% with the winner. The loser cashes 0 and his value is negative, regardless of whether or not someone called him a "value" play.
As I usually point out, at -270 Verlander pays 37% of the wagered risk, regardless of what betting style you use, and you don't have many investments that are going to earn 37% today, unless you are a major drug cartel.
can i just say, with everything that's changing on these boards, and all these idiots coming in. I really appreciate your write ups and the math behind it especially, It's my first year capping baseball and i turned the corner in july, already making up my losses in the first 3 months. I took a week off though, as i have exams coming up. don't have anything to add to your games today, as i haven't looked at anything, but i wish you the BOL. Will try and contribute more to your posts starting this weekend, hopefully i can help!
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key.
can i just say, with everything that's changing on these boards, and all these idiots coming in. I really appreciate your write ups and the math behind it especially, It's my first year capping baseball and i turned the corner in july, already making up my losses in the first 3 months. I took a week off though, as i have exams coming up. don't have anything to add to your games today, as i haven't looked at anything, but i wish you the BOL. Will try and contribute more to your posts starting this weekend, hopefully i can help!
The Tigers are 17-9 in his starts this year....Since he's almost -180-200 when he starts if you flat bet him every start you'd practically be dead even.....But tonight Secratariat takes on Mr Ed..... ..........................
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The Tigers are 17-9 in his starts this year....Since he's almost -180-200 when he starts if you flat bet him every start you'd practically be dead even.....But tonight Secratariat takes on Mr Ed..... ..........................
Hmmmm,,, I'm kind of surprised at you on this one Key,,,,,
I have this one at around -240 making it a Tigers win about 70%,,, you must have them winning 3 out of 4 or more I assume... I'm actually more like 2 out of 3.. and a no play compared to the offered line.
Hmmm,,,, I just can't find a line that is a play today,,, maybe I'll talk myself into this one...
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Hmmmm,,, I'm kind of surprised at you on this one Key,,,,,
I have this one at around -240 making it a Tigers win about 70%,,, you must have them winning 3 out of 4 or more I assume... I'm actually more like 2 out of 3.. and a no play compared to the offered line.
Hmmm,,,, I just can't find a line that is a play today,,, maybe I'll talk myself into this one...
As I usually point out, at -270 Verlander pays 37% of the wagered risk, regardless of what betting style you use, and you don't have many investments that are going to earn 37% today, unless you are a major drug cartel.
BOL
No investment has a 20-30% risk of losing 100% principal in 3 hours either.
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Quote Originally Posted by KeyElement:
Tigers -270 Verlander / Blackburn
As I usually point out, at -270 Verlander pays 37% of the wagered risk, regardless of what betting style you use, and you don't have many investments that are going to earn 37% today, unless you are a major drug cartel.
BOL
No investment has a 20-30% risk of losing 100% principal in 3 hours either.
Tuck's right, you guys are looking at risk/reward and not risk of ruin. I agree, Detroit is the play here - but not ML straight up. I believe a lot to do with sports betting is minimizing losses, not just maximizing winnings. That's why I parlayed Detroit and Philly for -102 or so.
If I play a square parlay for a unit and lose - doesn't really hurt. Play the ML and lose - there goes 3 units.
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Tuck's right, you guys are looking at risk/reward and not risk of ruin. I agree, Detroit is the play here - but not ML straight up. I believe a lot to do with sports betting is minimizing losses, not just maximizing winnings. That's why I parlayed Detroit and Philly for -102 or so.
If I play a square parlay for a unit and lose - doesn't really hurt. Play the ML and lose - there goes 3 units.
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