Tuesday Thoughts

1-0 +24.2 units last night

Putting some thoughts down for now, nothing bet as of now.  Will post up the final plays throughout the day

Oak @ Cle - Gio Gonzalez has been running well the last month or so, but his walking way too many batters.  When Oakland builds an early lead, he can pitch around the walks, but when he gets down, the walks seem to play a factor.  Gio has 30 walks in his last 10 starts.  Cleveland is torching lefties at the moment - .390 last 5 and .315 last 10.  Throw in Carmona off a terrible outing, 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA this year following a start where he gave up 4 ER+

Lean : Clevelend

Chi @ Wash - Zambrano has a 6.70 road ERA and Lannan a 5.72 home ERA, so immediate interest in the over.  Both pitchers are coming off good starts, but Zambrano is having control issues (walked 7 last time out).  Law of averages tell me one of these guys is going to get lit up.  If I get a few from the other team, over should be no problem

Lean : OVER 8.5

Hou @ Phi - Hamels is 8-5 with a 2.39 ERA in a home start following a home start where he gave up 4 ER+.  I've seen enough quality pitching from Bud Norris.  Could be a long night for him

Lean : Philadelphia RL

Back with more in a bit ...   

2169, SportsMoney - thanks guys

Minn @ Tex - Normally, when I see a 2 run drop on the total with two great pitchers and the previous game going under, I tend to look at the over.  However, both pitchers are bounce back starters, so I can see a pitcher's duel tonight.  Lewis has a 1.54 ERA and Pavano a 3.00 ERA in starts after giving up 4+ ER.  Both are coming off starts where they gave up at least 4 runs.  If we get an under tonight, I likely will be heavy on the over tomorrow.

Lean : UNDER 8.5

not much to write up on these, but a few hunch leans for now.

Colorado ML

Atlanta / Colorad Under 9

Kansas City / Detroit UNDER 9.5

Cleveland Indians +105 (15 units to win 15.75)

Philadelphia Phillies RL (25 units to win 21.74)

Kansas City / Detroit UNDER 9.5 (15 units to win 14.29)

still going through some others..

nmcnabb - Was just sizing up how many units, but the more I look the more I like this over.  Lannan has been sharp since he came off the DL, but back to back 100+ pitch starts make me think he'll have an early exit or will have some control issues.    

Chicago / Washington OVER 8.5 (18 units to win 16.36)