Werker's MLB Saturday

69-49-1

Yankees -145: The basic and advanced stats on these pitchers pretty comparable, but this comes down to who's doing what LATELY. CC has been absolutely stellar recently. He has a 1.41 daytime ERA, 2.34 away ERA, hasn't given up a run in 23.2 innings, and showing no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, Romero has had two of his worst starts of the season in his last 2. Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting the Yanks to destroy him or anything, especially with their best right-handed hitter recovering from surgery, but I do expect them to get 3 or 4 runs off him, and probably another 1 or 2 off the bullpen, which should be enough to win. Both these teams hit left-handers well, but the talent level today should keep this game from getting away from either team. I'm just giving a significant pitching edge to CC. It wouldn't have affected my decision today, but it's also nice that Bautista won't be playing.

Marlins EV: Vazquez has actually been REALLY good lately. In his last 5 starts, he's got a 1.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Zambrano is so mediocre. Both of these guys advanced stats aren't great, but this is another case where I'm backing a pitcher in a groove. And Vazquez (as much as it pains me) fits the bill today. The Cubs definitely have an offensive edge overall this season, but the way these teams are playing recently, it's not a big one. The Marlins have actually been scoring more than a run per game more than the Cubs in July.

Other write-ups coming, but wanted to get these out before the early games.

Angels -120:

Angels EV:

Cardinals -124:

White Sox +141:

Rockies -118:

Twins -128:

BOL

Bol today

Yanks 

CC&weaver

Ok, so I am adding some plays. I keep doing the research and I keep liking what I'm seeing. I've never had a card so big, but it's just going to be a big day. 11 plays! I'm not going to be writing THAT much per play, but I'll probably be able to answer any questions, should they arise.

Yankees -145:

Marlins EV:

Angels -120: Weaver v Cahill: Basically, all of Weaver's basic and advanced stats are better than Cahill's, and the Angels are the better offense. Weaver actually has a sub 1 daytime ERA (3 starts). In the previous 2 starts against the A's, he's had a 0.56 ERA, and they've hit .226 against him. Cahill has a 4.5 ERA against the Angels, who are hitting .400 against him in the one previous start. This is a cheap price to back Weaver today.

Angels EV: Santana v Harden: I've said it before that I think Santana is underrated, and I've been making money on that fact recently. I'm not going to deny that Harden is very solid too. I'm actually only thinking that the Angels have a VERY small pitching edge, but that offensive edge is big enough that I have no problem backing them at even money.

Cardinals -124: Carpenter has been better in almost every statistical category than Arroyo. The Cards have a better BA away than the Reds do at home, they also bat .020 higher against right-handers than the reds do.

White Sox +141: Jackson is another underrated pitcher. His xFIP is a full point lower than his ERA. Almost all of his stats are better than Scherzer's. The biggest concern here is that Scherzer has done well against the Sox and Jackson has had mixed results. The Tigers have been slumping offensively, and the Sox have been heating up. I think this game is pretty much a coin flip, and at +141, this is a nice value play.

Rockies -118: Chacin has been very solid, especially at home, and Greinke has just average lately. I love that the Rockies hit Greinke well, even when he was pitching awesome earlier in the season, and that the Brewers haven't seen Chacin before. Add to the fact that the Brewers suck offensively on the road and CarGo is coming back to the lineup tonight, and -118 is a very nice price.

Twins -128: Pavano has been fantastic at home this season. He's faced KC twice on the road and did a lot better in his second start. I expect him to have his best performance against them now that he's at home. Francis has had two mediocre starts against the Twins in KC, and his ERA jumps from 3.38 to 6.29 from home to away. This does NOT bode well for him. The way things have gone recently, I think these offenses are very comparable. The edge here is in the pitching. The fact that everything I've read says that Nathan is going to close in the next opportunity is the only reason I'm not doing the 1st 5 innings here.

Phillies -134: The thing that concerns me most about this one is that the line is so low. I saw this game coming up and thought it would be -160. I feel like I'm missing something. Hamels has been awesome, he's a lefty (which really matters against a team that steals as much as the Mets), the Phils offense is rolling and the Mets have been struggling since Reyes went out. I'm not saying Niese sucks or anything, but the Phillies have the edge in every part of the game that I measure. I'm putting an extra half unit on this one.

Rangers -105: Felix definitely gets the edge here, but the last few games should definitely show just how much pitching in Texas versus pitching in Seattle affects this better than their reputation Texas pitching staff. I give a small edge to Felix, who's great and everything, but not by any means unhittable. With how hot the Rangers are, I am completely fine backing them against the moderately better pitcher.

Indians -116: Carrasco is better in almost every metric, and he's not going to the DR tomorrow to face a manslaughter charge. I'm sorry, but I don't care how professional he is, there's no way Simon is going to be 100% focused out there today. And he's not even better than Carrasco when he is. Carrasco has had a rough July, but he also faced streaking Yankees and Blue Jays in his two starts. The Indians are also hitting a lot better than the O's lately. I would be surprised if Simon goes more than 5 innings and the O's bullpen sucks too. At this pretty short price, I'm happy to take the team with the edge everywhere.

neander, Bry, Brian

Good luck Werker!

tinfoils

Yankees -145:

Marlins EV:

Angels -120: Weaver v Cahill:

White Sox +141:

Phillies -134:

Angels EV: Santana v Harden:

Cardinals -124:

Rockies -118:

Twins -128:

Rangers -105:

Indians -116:

I feel like it's especially important to start the day with a couple of wins when putting so much in play.

Alright, a good 4-1 start to the day. Dunno what happened to Hamels today.

Yankees -145:

Marlins EV:

Angels -120: Weaver v Cahill:

White Sox +141:

Phillies -134:

Indians -116:

Cardinals -124:

Twins -128:

Angels EV: Santana v Harden:

Rockies -118:

Rangers -105:

  bol tonite...great start

Cards



GL

Keep it going Werker, great card!  Saw the pitching lines on Francis, Twinkies seem STRONG in this spot!  Hammels...  WTF??  crazy shit...  GL!

Yankees -145:

Marlins EV:

Angels -120: Weaver v Cahill:

White Sox +141:

Phillies -134:

Indians -116:

Cardinals -124:

Twins -128:

Angels EV: Santana v Harden:

Rockies -118:

Rangers -105:

6-2, 3 to go

bruce, QB, vici

MGD, yeah, the Twins were supposed to win today and I love when teams win when they're supposed to

Wow, that Angels loss is tough to swallow. Thompson made two separate putaway pitches to get out of the 10th, and the ump called them balls. Brutal. And I don't even want to talk about the ump in the Brewers/Rockies game. Man, doesn't it seem like they're just doing a really poor job of it this year?

Yankees -145:

Marlins EV:

Angels -120: Weaver v Cahill:

White Sox +141:

Phillies -134:

Indians -116:

Cardinals -124:

Twins -128:

Angels EV: Santana v Harden:

Rockies -118:

Rangers -105:

I'm not one to blame the umps typically, but in both the 2nd Angels game and the Rockies game, there were just brutal missed calls that completely changed the outcome. Really frustrating to watch. I wish I hadn't seen them. Ended up 7-4...REALLY feel like it should have been 9-2.