Posted:
#1
As I'm scanning across the lines I see some insanely high home favorites. My book has Washington -315, Pittsburgh -285, LA Dodgers -250, and NY Mets -230. Now there's no doubt in my mind really that one of these teams is going to lose. They've all been pounded by the public from what I've seen so chances are they don't all win. Somebody is going to cash in picking against one of these heavy favorites. But which one?
We can first start off by looking at all of the aces ERA's at home both this year and over the past 3 seasons (2012-2014). This is how they stack up, with the first number being their 2015 home ERA and the second number being their combined home ERA over the past 3 years:
Kershaw - 1.49 / 1.78
Harvey - 2.41 / 1.89
Scherzer - 3.11 / 3.25
Liriano - 3.95 / 3.86
Immediately we see that the pitcher most likely to give up runs at home is Francisco Liriano.
These are the 4 pitchers ERA's in August so far this season:
Harvey 0.43
Kershaw 1.46
Liriano 5.06
Scherzer 6.86
While Harvey and Kershaw have been lights out this month, Scherzer and Liriano have struggled mightily. Given the first two's ridiculous home ERA and August ERA, I am going to disqualify the Cubs and Red Sox as underdog plays.
So while looking at numbers I happen to stumble across the Covers consensus and see that the highest picked team for tonight is Pittsburgh at 77.12%. I get it, they've won 8 of 10, they're 44-20 at home, the Rockies are the Rockies. But of all the heavy favorites this game caught by eye. Harvey, Kershaw, Scherzer... you're talking about legitimately 3 of the top 10 (?) pitchers in baseball. But Francisco Liriano? Great pitcher, don't get me wrong, but worthy of having a -285 ML? I don't see it.
Now Jon Gray is on the hill for Colorado, a guy we know little about since he has only made 4 careeer starts. Now don't be fooled by the 5.94 ERA, as he had a 2.40 ERA thru his first 3 career starts before giving up 7 earned to the Mets at Coors Field. But the first time he faced the Mets was at Citi Field where he held them to 1 run on just 1 hit in 6 innings. Now even thought the Mets raked him the second time they saw him, they could not figure him out the first time they saw him. Neither could San Diego (1 ER), or Seattle (2 ER). Is it crazy to think that the first time Pittsburgh sees him it may result in a slow start for their bats? I don't think so.
Cherry on top, Colorado is coming off of a day of rest while Pittsburgh had to travel back home after playing a night game in Miami.
Second cherry on top, in the past 3 seasons Francisco Liriano is 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in 3 starts against the Rockies.
In my personal opinion if you are looking for a big dog to come thru tonight your best bet is the Rockies. I think Liriano is the weakest pitcher of all the aces throwing and I think the Rockies, while inconsistent, are the most likely offense of the 4 to hang up a crooked number. Let's take the worst bullpen in the MLB out of it and go with Rockies 1st 5 Innings +200 and hope for the bats to come out hot.
BOL everyone and discussions always welcome.
0
Hot Forum Topics
