Why the Rays

I will try to be quick and present you good facts towards why should you not bet the Dodgers. To be honest, I was expecting better odds on the Rays. There is still marginal value on betting them... 

1. Starting pitcher duel. Goselin was solid in the regular season. Against the Braves he was shattered. Snell has been solid in the regular season and the postseason. Clearly Goselin´s confidence should be down, and more so, on a WS game that means so much for a franchise desperate to win. He can be light out, he has the talent to do so... but after watching him vs the Braves I don´t see it likely. 

2. Lineup splits. We all know this by now (I expect and hope that any serious bettor does). The Dodgers splits vs lefties are way worse than vs RHP. The reason is that Mookie Betts and Turner, despite being right batters, bat better vs righties. On the other hand, the Dodgers left handed batters: Seager, Muncy and Belli bat way worse vs lefties (Muncy is somewhat of an exception in this season´s splits, basically because he has sucked against both lefties and righties). 

3. Bullpen. Tampa Bay has the better bullpen and the better manager in terms of making decisions with his bullpen. This is relevant, since today, we are expecting at least 5 innings from Snell. That would mean that managing the bullpen will be easier, with Castillo, Anderson, Roe, and Alvarado in situational spots. 

I think this game is practically a flip. I actually put Tampa slightly ahead. I am well aware that my projection is based on my expectation of Snell delivering a good game. As such, I see value on the Rays. 

BOL to all!

so you just disregard dodgers offense for them to be like any other team....

One last reason. If you look at yesterday´s game, it almost seems as if Tampa gave up early on it. None of its top relievers entered the game. For the Dodgers, we saw Joe Kelly and Baez who, given how bad Treinen and Jansen have looked, may be the top relievers together with Urias. 

Gos is a dummy starter.  He will get pulled as soon as he gets into his first trouble.   Enter urias. 

Now give us the urias stats to entertain us. 

Do the homework and look at their splits vs lefties. They are insane and a much better offense than the Rays. Clearly they should be favorites for the series. But for this specific game, with one of their worse and less experiences starters, against a consolidated left handed pitcher, their offense advantage is offset

Great analysis dude! Rays have a nice edge in the starting pitching department tonight, and should most likely be playing this game from out in front.  This Rays bullpen is like a boa constrictor sucking the life out of there opponent when they have the lead in the late innings.  They been doing it to the best offenses in MLB and should be no different against the Dodgers.  This is a game the Rays have to have and they will be using all the best resources available to get the job done.  Whereas, the dodgers can afford to drop this game and still be looking good with future starts from Buehler and Kershaw to finish off the series.

If they do this. Use Gos to pitch 2 innings, go with no harm, and then switch to Urias, the Dodgers would win. But that is way above Roberts IQ. 

You sure they would burn up Urias early in this game after Gos. May seems like a better option for that spot coming in the 2nd or 3 inning for pitch a few.  Roberts has any sense at all he would save Urias for a higher leverage spot.

Rays Money line over 8 parlay !

Great read here! What you really have is a great way to put games in perspective. Intricately, I love how you follow up with your write ups! You deserve a follow, friend!

One of the most important aspects on your write up is management. Surely last night they omitted their  foul by leaving Glansnow in a little to long for my taste.